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[(Cox)-556(and)]TJ 0.0104 Tc -20.1377 -1.0996 Td (Baybutt)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0101 Tc 3.1513 0 Td [(,)-545(1981;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6671 0 Td [(Cullen)-544(and)-544(Fr)32(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.1301 0 Td [(,)-545(1999;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0104 Tc 3.6671 0 Td [(Funtowicz)-540(and)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -17.6156 -1.0996 Td (Ravetz)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.6355 0 Td [(,)-413(1990;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.344 0 Td (Hamby)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.8112 0 Td [(,)-413(1994;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.344 0 Td [(Helton)-417(et)-410(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc [(,)-408(2006)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.5924 0 Td [(Mor)29(gan)]TJ -20.7272 -1.0996 Td [(and)-291(Henrion)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.1067 0 Td [(,)-288(1990)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.106 0 Td [(Saltelli)-297(et)-291(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.1067 0 Td [(,)-288(2000,)-295(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.6451 0 Td [(V)105(ose)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.825 0 Td [(,)-288(2000].)]TJ -20.7895 -1.0996 Td [(In)-538(additi)-9(on,)-541(aspe)-10(cts)-540(of)-538(model)-544(evalu)-10(atio)-8(n)-532(hav)-8(e)-538(been)-541(the)]TJ T* [(focus)-424(of)-419(recent)-426(conferences)-427(and)-417(workshop)-9(s)-420([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.7952 0 Td (Hanson)Tj -20.7952 -1.0996 Td [(and)-280(Hemez)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.4776 0 Td [(,)-283(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0833 0 Td [(von)-281(Krauss)-285(et)-279(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.8354 0 Td [(,)-277(2004])-286(\(see)-278(al)-7(so)-277(IAHS-)]TJ -14.3962 -1.0996 Td [(PU)-11(B)-547(W)70(o)-10(rk)-11(sh)-11(op)-547(on)-547(U)-8(nc)-15(er)-12(ta)-13(int)-14(y)-543(A)-8(na)-15(lys)-13(i)-8(s)-545(i)-8(n)-543(H)-8(yd)-9(r)-7(ol)-12(og)-9(i)-8(c)]TJ T* [(Modeling,)-168(Lancaster)-173(University)62(,)-175(Lancaster)37(,)-175(United)-173(Kingdom,)]TJ 0.0373 Tc T* [(20)5(04)5(,)-506(w)-4(ww)64(.es.lan)5(c)-2(s.ac.u)5(k/hfdg)5(/uncertainty)5(_)-35(w)-4(o)5(r)-3(k)5(s)-3(h)5(op/)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(un)19(ce)18(rt)20(_i)16(n)13(tr)14(o)13(.h)19(tm)14(,)-249(an)19(d)-254(T)37(ra)22(ns)18(At)19(la)16(n)13(ti)13(c)-249(Un)16(c)12(er)17(ta)16(in)22(ty)-245(Co)15(ll)19(o)13(qu)19(iu)16(m)11(,)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(University)-431(of)-425(Georgia,)-421(Athens,)-432(2005,)-426(www)62(.modeling.)-10(uga.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(edu/tauc/inde)-12(x.html\).)-320(Combi)-9(ning)-316(these)-323(informati)-12(on)-315(sources)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(with)-470(an)-463(appraisal)-472(of)-465(the)-465(relevant)-466(peer-reviewed)-466(literature)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(yielded)-340(a)-334(fairly)-339(comprehensive)-342(review)59(.)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 25.0971 63.6835 Td [(2.1.)-898(Review)-344(of)-334(Model)-337(Evaluation)-339(Concepts)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.4 Td ([)Tj -0.0285 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.507 715.025 Tm (11)Tj -0.0001 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.3102 715.025 Tm [(])-619(In)-538(the)-545(con)-8(te)-7(xt)-539(of)-538(r)-7(egul)-11(ati)-9(on,)-541(mode)-9(l)-541(evalu)-10(at)-7(ion)-544(is)]TJ -1.8364 -1.0995 Td [(motivat)-10(ed)-276(by)-281(a)-277(desire)-285(to)-279(minimize)-289(the)-278(possibility)-290(of)-278(making)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(a)-464(\221)73(\221wrong\222)66(\222)-460(decision)-465(about)-457(a)-464(potentially)-464(adverse)-468(environ-)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(mental)-513(outcome)-10(.)-504(Centra)-10(l)-507(to)-511(such)-508(activity)-515(is)-507(the)-510(need)-512(to)]TJ 0.0155 Tc T* [(cha)5(r)-3(ac)5(terize)5(,)-545(qua)5(ntify)-544(a)-1(nd)-544(prop)5(agate)-545(un)5(certainty)62(,)-545(w)2(hile)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(recogni)-10(zing)-441(that)-450(both)-446(quantitative)-452(and)-445(qualitative)-453(compo-)]TJ T* [(nents)-238(are)-238(present)-238([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.1754 0 Td [(Funtowicz)-238(and)-235(Ravet)-8(z)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.7454 0 Td [(,)-232(1990;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.9869 0 Td [(Refsgaar)27(d)-237(et)]TJ -18.9078 -1.0996 Td (al.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.0259 0 Td [(,)-413(2007;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.3553 0 Td [(W)85(alker)-391(et)-415(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.2994 0 Td [(,)-419(2003].)-421(The)-415(desire)-421(to)-420(be)-418(compre-)]TJ -9.6806 -1.0996 Td [(hensive)-474(has)-475(yielded)-476(a)-470(broad)-468(variety)-478(of)-470(model)-476(evaluation)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(met)-8(hods)-331(and)-337(packaged)-339(software)-339(tools.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 605.0408 Tm (12)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 605.0408 Tm [(])-619(Numerou)-11(s)-386(uncertainty)-392(ta)-7(xonomies)-389(have)-388(been)-393(advo-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(cated)-362([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.8063 0 Td [(Cullen)-361(and)-354(Fr)25(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.6313 0 Td [(,)-357(1999;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2307 0 Td [(Funtowicz)-363(and)-354(Ravet)-8(z)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.9891 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(1990)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.5278 0 Td [(Jager)-258(and)-252(King)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.2063 0 Td [(,)-254(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0266 0 Td [(Li)-255(and)-252(W)51(u)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.1035 0 Td [(,)-249(2006)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0266 0 Td [(Refsgaar)27(d)-254(et)]TJ -18.8908 -1.0996 Td (al.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.0259 0 Td [(,)-504(2007;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.531 0 Td [(Regan)-503(et)-506(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.2767 0 Td [(,)-510(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.531 0 Td [(Rotman)-9(s)-505(and)-501(van)-507(Asselt)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.2927 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2001)-7(b;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.208 0 Td [(T)53(rucan)-8(o)-430(et)-438(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.9229 0 Td [(,)-436(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.3894 0 Td [(van)-439(der)-435(Sluijs)-435(et)-438(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.428 0 Td [(,)-436(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -20.9482 -1.0996 Td [(V)100(ose)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.825 0 Td [(,)-408(2000;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.3327 0 Td [(W)85(alker)-374(et)-410(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.2767 0 Td [(,)-402(2003].)-410(In)-402(some)-408(cases,)-407(different)]TJ -10.4344 -1.0996 Td [(taxono)-8(mies)-303(assign)-306(different)-305(meanings)-305(to)-307(the)-301(same)-306(term)-9(s;)-303(in)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(others,)-306(diffe)9(rent)-302(taxonomies)-300(reflect)-305(alternative)-305(perspec)-9(tives.)]TJ T* [(This)-293(intrinsic)-290(vagueness)-289(is)-292(an)-287(example)-288(of)-289(\221)73(\221linguistic)-297(uncer-)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(tain)-8(ty\222)72(\222)-409([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 3.5594 0 Td [(Regan)-412(et)-415(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.0954 0 Td [(,)-413(2003])-410(and)-417(can)-412(engender)-414(signific)-11(ant)]TJ -8.6547 -1.0996 Td [(confus)-9(ion)-431(among)-433(practitioners,)-442(stakeholders,)-436(and)-434(decision)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(makers.)-499(T)60(o)-492(establi)-10(sh)-492(a)-493(point)-494(of)-499(reference)-498(for)-494(compar)-10(ing)]TJ 0.0136 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(tools,)-541(a)-547(g)4(lossary)-546(of)-549(common)-541(terms)-548(is)-542(included)-541(in)-546(the)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(auxili)-9(ary)-334(material.)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.3716 TD [(2.1.1)-7(.)-895(T)71(ypes)-331(of)-340(Uncertainty)-338(in)-334(Integ)-9(rated)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Environmental)-337(Modeling)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj 0.0203 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.5637 426.3448 Tm (13)Tj 0.0121 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.7637 426.3448 Tm [(])-618(U)-1(ncertainty)-548(may)-542(b)-4(e)-543(c)1(lassified)-548(as)-544(reducible)-543(\(i.e.,)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -1.8817 -1.0996 Td [(stem)-9(ming)-273(from)-280(erroneous)-280(knowledge)-275(or)-278(data\))-273(or)-278(irreducible)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(i.e.,)-324(stemming)-321(from)-319(inherent)-324(variability\).)-325(From)-322(a)-317(decision-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(making)-379(perspec)-9(tive,)-376(these)-380(have)-376(diffe)9(rent)-376(rami)-9(fications)-379(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(should)-276(be)-265(separated)-11(,)-266(to)-267(the)-272(extent)-273(possible,)-273(when)-271(evaluating)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(models)-363([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.548 0 Td [(Cullen)-361(and)-359(Fr)31(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.6313 0 Td [(,)-357(1999;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2363 0 Td [(Hoffman)-362(and)-359(Hammonds)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.2417 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.1052 Td [(1994)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.6129 0 Td (Nauta)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.4372 0 Td [(,)-340(2000;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2023 0 Td (Sonich-Mullin)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 5.6678 0 Td [(,)-340(2001].)-342(The)-341(total)-345(uncer-)]TJ -13.9201 -1.0996 Td [(tain)-8(ty)-398(of)-402(a)-402(given)-400(quantity)-404(may)-402(be)-401(charac)-9(terized)-405(in)-398(one)-405(of)]TJ T* [(four)-431(ways:)-434(purely)-436(irreducible,)-434(the)-431(quantity)-432(varies)-432(and)-434(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(associated)-284(population)-282(has)-277(been)-280(completely)-280(sampled)-283(without)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(error;)-440(partly)-433(reducible)-437(and)-434(partly)-439(irreducible,)-439(the)-431(quantity)]TJ T* [(v)-10(ar)-12(i)-13(es)-550(a)-11(nd)-553(t)-8(h)-10(e)-544(a)-11(ss)-12(o)-10(ci)-13(a)-11(t)-8(ed)-554(po)-15(pu)-15(l)-8(at)-13(i)-8(o)-10(n)-543(h)-10(as)-555(be)-15(en)-554(pa)-15(r)-7(t)-8(i)-8(al)-13(l)-8(y)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sampled)-335(or)-323(sampled)-335(with)-328(error;)-327(purely)-334(reducible,)-328(the)-329(quan-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tity)-464(does)-462(not)-459(vary)-457(but)-459(has)-464(been)-461(sampled)-459(with)-464(error;)-463(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(certain,)-421(the)-414(quantity)-421(does)-411(not)-414(vary)-418(and)-417(has)-413(been)-416(sampled)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(without)-339(error)-342([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.9342 0 Td [(Cullen)-339(and)-331(Fr)25(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.586 0 Td [(,)-334(1999].)]TJ 0 Tc -11.6927 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 250.3134 Tm (14)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 250.3134 Tm [(])-619(While)-313(model)-312(evaluation)-312(traditionally)-314(utilizes)-313(a)-306(prob-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(abil)-8(istic)-380(represen)-10(tation)-383(of)-380(uncertainty)50(,)-379(alternative)-390(represen-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tation)-9(s)-341(have)-342(also)-341(been)-342(considered)-349([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.3056 0 Td [(Helton)-343(and)-342(Oberkampf)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.3519 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2004)-7(].)-278(T)66(ypes)-287(of)-278(reducible)-284(\(i.e.,)-284(empirical\))-290(input)-284(uncertainty)56(,)]TJ T* [(for)-477(example)-10(,)-470(have)-478(been)-478(explicated)-477(in)-477(a)-476(variety)-478(of)-476(ways,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(popu)-7(larly)-361(subclassified)-372(by:)-363(random)-361(error;)-367(systemati)-12(c)-362(error;)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(input)-284(sampli)-10(ng)-281(error;)-281(model)-289(output)-283(sampling)-285(error;)-287(inherent)]TJ 0.0105 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(randomnes)11(s)-7(;)-541(correlation;)-541(and)-544(d)11(i)-7(s)-1(agreement)-541([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0102 Tc 19.1402 0 Td [(Cullen)-544(and)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -19.1402 -1.0996 Td [(Fr)25(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.774 0 Td [(,)-334(1999;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(Mor)29(gan)-331(and)-337(Henrion)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.6604 0 Td [(,)-334(1990].)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -13.6254 -1.3716 Td [(2.1.2)-7(.)-895(Sour)12(ces)-339(of)-334(Uncertainty)-344(in)-334(Integrated)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Environmental)-337(Modeling)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj 0.0284 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.6204 126.6094 Tm (15)Tj 0.0172 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.9337 126.6094 Tm [(])-619(N)-2(umerous)-550(c)1(lassification)-548(schemes)-550(for)-551(source)-5(s)-550(o)1(f)]TJ 0.0098 Tc -1.8987 -1.0996 Td [(un)10(ce)10(rta)10(i)-3(n)10(t)-2(y)-533(h)10(ave)-534(b)10(ee)10(n)-544(i)10(n)10(t)-4(ro)10(du)10(ce)10(d,)-534(an)10(d)-538(i)2(t)-536(i)10(s)-537(no)10(t)-541(a)10(l)3(wa)10(y)-5(s)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(possible)-489(to)-483(reconcile)-483(the)-482(differing)-480(taxonomies.)-487(Examples)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(incl)-8(ude)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.3383 0 Td [(Linkov)-416(and)-416(Burmistr)19(ov)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.8733 0 Td [([2003)-8(])-415(\(parameter)20(,)-413(model,)]TJ -13.2117 -1.0996 Td [(and)-315(modeler)-324(uncertainty\);)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.6668 0 Td (Beck)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.2331 0 Td [([1987])-315(\(initial)-322(system)-320(state,)]TJ -12.8999 -1.0996 Td [(parame)-11(ter)31(,)-379(input,)-380(and)-377(output)-379(unce)-8(rtainty\);)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 17.3662 0 Td [(Refsgaar)27(d)-379(et)-381(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -17.3662 -1.0996 Td [([2007)-8(])-387(\(context,)-397(input,)-391(parame)-11(ter)31(,)-391(structural,)-396(and)-394(technical)]TJ T* [(uncerta)-11(inty\);)-458(and)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.4022 0 Td [(Mor)29(gan)-456(and)-461(Henrion)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.3632 0 Td [([1990])-462(\(statistical)]TJ ET q 1 0 0 1 9 -9 cm 47.905 75.118 239.131 -17.121 re W n 0 0 0 1 K 0.227 w 10 M 1 j 1 J []0 d 47.905 75.118 m 87.761 75.118 l S Q BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 68.8677 61.1858 Tm (1)Tj 0.0202 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 72.0425 57.6141 Tm [(A)6(uxiliary)-689(mater)-6(i)-1(als)-690(a)2(re)-688(availab)-6(l)-1(e)-688(i)-1(n)-682(t)-1(he)-688(HTML.)-690(doi:10.1029/)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -1.8992 -1.0599 Td [(2008WR00)14(7301.)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 288.6094 31.7622 Tm [(2o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -25.8417 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 14.0369 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-322(ET)-265(AL.:)-333(EV)127(ALUA)102(TING)-338(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 37.1281 0 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 132 0 obj 19010 endobj 133 0 obj << /GS0 134 0 R /GS1 135 0 R >> endobj 134 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 135 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 138 0 obj << /Length 139 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 64.7858 729.0282 Tm [(variation,)-399(subjective)-398(judgment,)-396(linguistic)-398(imprecision,)-400(var-)]TJ 0.0098 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(iability)62(,)-539(i)-4(n)10(h)-5(ere)10(n)-5(t)-542(r)-3(a)10(n)-5(dom)10(n)-7(e)-1(s)10(s)-8(,)-539(disag)10(r)-7(eem)10(e)-8(nt,)-539(approxima)10(-)]TJ 0.0332 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(tion\).)-567(W)75(e)-567(propose)-567(a)-561(simplified)-566(taxo)-5(nomy)-566(\()-2(described)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(below\),)-421(consisting)-421(of)-419(quantitative)-424(input)-420(and)-417(model)-420(uncer-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tainty)-298(under)-303(an)-293(umbrella)-303(of)-295(qualit)-9(ative)-297(modeler)-301(uncertainty)56(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj 0.0203 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.4079 674.036 Tm (16)Tj 0.0139 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.6645 674.036 Tm [(])-616(T)6(he)-541(mo)4(d)4(e)-2(ler)-543(i)1(s)-548(r)2(espo)4(nsib)4(le)-547(fo)4(r)-548(d)4(etermin)4(i)1(ng)-540(an)4(d)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -1.8874 -1.0995 Td [(assembling)-393(both)-384(an)-384(input)-386(vector)-385(\()]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 13.9201 0 Td (X)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7198 0 Td [(\))-387(and)-383(the)-386(model)-386(\()]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.3058 0 Td (f)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.2721 0 Td (\()Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.3231 0 Td (X)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.7198 0 Td (\)\))Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.2607 -1.0996 Td [(operating)-408(on)-400(an)-401(input)-403(vector)-408(to)-403(simulate)-408(output.)-401(Different)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(modelers)-330(may)-322(make)-327(different)-322(decisions)-329(about)-321(the)-329(form)-325(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(content)-464(of)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.6589 0 Td (X)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 1.1789 0 Td (and)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.893 0 Td (f)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.2721 0 Td (\()Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.3231 0 Td (X)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7198 0 Td [(\).)-460(Such)-460(modeler)-460(unce)-8(rtainty)-464(can)-457(be)]TJ 0.0154 Tc -9.0458 -1.0996 Td [(measured)-544(by)-544(comp)5(arative)-545(s)-2(tudy)-544(\(contrasting)-544(r)-3(esults)-552(o)5(f)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(multiple)-375(independent)-370(modelers\))-376(or)-363(by)-366(reduction)-374(via)-369(expert)]TJ 0.0121 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(elicitation)-542(\(having)-542(mul)4(tiple)-543(modelers)-544(develop)-548(a)-543(single,)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(consensus)-341(model)-335(or)-334(subset)-340(of)-334(models\).)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 575.0502 Tm (17)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 575.0502 Tm [(])-619(Input)-328(uncertainty)-330(is)-326(associated)-329(with)-328(quantities)-327(in)-324(the)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(input)-278(and)-269(output)-277(vectors;)-280(these)-278(can)-276(be)-270(subdivide)-10(d)-271(into)-274(input)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(data,)-322(response)-326(data,)-322(and)-320(model)-323(paramete)-12(rs.)-318(Input)-323(data)-323(refer)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(to)-364(the)-363(forcing)-369(functions,)-368(sources)-367(and)-360(sinks,)-369(and)-360(initial)-372(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(boundary)-339(conditions)-340(consumed)-341(by)-332(a)-334(model.)-340(Response)-339(data)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(represent)-420(site-specific)-422(measurement)-12(s)-409(and)-417(expert)-414(testimony)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(that)-252(can)-253(be)-253(compared)-258(to)-250(model-simulated)-266(output.)-254(In)-249(genera)-9(l,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(the)-391(usefulness)-391(\(i.e.,)-392(information)-395(content\))-398(of)-385(a)-391(given)-389(set)-387(of)]TJ T* [(input)-312(and)-303(respons)-9(e)-306(data)-306(will)-314(depend)-306(on)-309(the)-306(model)-312(structure)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-541(the)-545(degr)-10(ee)-537(to)-539(whi)-9(ch)-537(mod)-10(el)-540(inpu)-10(t)-535(inf)-8(luen)-11(ces)-544(mode)-9(l)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(output.)-503(Model)-503(parameters)-507(are)-499(akin)-504(to)-500(input)-499(data,)-498(except)]TJ T* [(parameters)-354(are)-340(typicall)-11(y)-339(carefully)-348(tailored)-350(\(e.g.,)-343(via)-346(param-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(eter)-337(estimation)-12(\))-330(to)-335(suit)-338(a)-334(particular)-345(modeling)-340(ef)11(fort.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 432.0707 Tm (18)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 432.0707 Tm [(])-619(Unlike)-372(input)-369(and)-366(respon)-9(se)-363(data,)-373(quantifying)-374(param-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(eter)-490(uncertainty)-494(requires)-489(both)-492(the)-482(model)-493(and)-485(data.)-487(Also,)]TJ T* [(whereas)-352(input)-346(and)-343(response)-349(data)-346(can)-344(be)-344(irreducible,)-354(model)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(pa)-10(r)-7(am)-12(e)-11(te)-7(r)-7(s)-545(us)-11(ua)-15(ll)-10(y)-543(ar)-12(e)-544(t)-8(r)-7(ea)-10(t)-8(ed)-548(as)-550(pu)-9(r)-7(el)-13(y)-543(r)-7(ed)-10(u)-10(ci)-7(b)-10(le)-546(\()-7(i)-8(.e)-10(.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(constants)-352(for)-341(a)-345(given)-349(site)-344(and)-343(whose)-351(values)-345(are)-346(uncertain\).)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Systematic)-456(parameter)-455(variability)-455(or)-448(nonconstanc)-11(y)64(,)-447(for)-449(ex-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ample,)-295(is)-292(an)-293(important)-299(indicator)-298(of)-289(model)-295(error)-296(that)-292(often)-295(is)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(not)-329(explicitly)-335(addressed)-331(by)-326(modelers)-336([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 15.4958 0 Td (Beck)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.9214 0 Td [(,)-322(1987;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.174 0 Td (Kuczera)Tj -20.5912 -1.0996 Td [(et)-240(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.9724 0 Td [(,)-237(2006;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 2.9983 0 Td [(W)85(agen)-7(er)-210(et)-240(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.6791 0 Td [(,)-237(2003].)-245(Failure)-245(to)-239(recognize)-247(such)]TJ -10.6498 -1.0996 Td [(variability)-353(confounds)-345(the)-340(associated)-346(uncertainty)-353(quantifica-)]TJ T* [(tion)-444(by)-445(mixing)-449(together)-449(aspects)-448(of)-448(parameter)21(,)-442(model)-448(and)]TJ T* [(data)-323(uncertainty)-324([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 7.0564 0 Td [(Kavetski)-322(et)-319(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.7698 0 Td [(,)-317(2002,)-324(2006a,)-317(2006b].)-318(The)]TJ -12.8263 -1.0996 Td [(resulting)-440(bias)-437(may)-441(be)-435(viewed)-437(as)-436(an)-435(expre)-9(ssion)-437(of)-436(hybrid)]TJ 0.0124 Tc T* [(uncertainty)-547(associated)-542(with)-542(an)-542(unknown)-547(p)2(robability)-542(of)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(occ)-9(urren)-11(ce)-537([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 5.2087 0 Td [(V)100(ose)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.8307 0 Td [(,)-538(2000)-7(].)-539(Depe)-11(nding)-542(on)-536(it)-10(s)-533(sign)-12(ifica)-10(nce,)]TJ -7.0394 -1.0996 Td [(the)-448(bias)-449(may)-447(complicate)-451(efforts)-441(to)-449(compare)-452(or)-442(assi)-8(milate)]TJ T* [(model)-391(parameter)-399(estimates)-398(generated)-394(for)-386(different)-390(models,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sites,)-338(or)-334(scenarios.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 234.0992 Tm (19)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 234.0992 Tm [(])-619(Model)-390(uncertainty)-392(reflects)-391(the)-386(inability)-392(of)-385(a)-385(model,)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(even)-507(when)-503(provide)-9(d)-503(with)-504(perfect)-512(\(i.e.,)-505(certain)-513(or)-504(purely)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(irreducible\))-288(input,)-278(to)-279(genera)-9(te)-274(output)-283(indistinguishable)-288(from)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(corresponding)-460(real-world)-459(observat)-10(ions.)-453(Model)-452(uncertainty)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ma)-12(y)-537(be)-548(sub)-9(div)-11(i)-8(ded)-547(ac)-10(cor)-11(din)-11(g)-543(to)-545(unc)-8(er)-12(ta)-7(int)-14(ie)-7(s)-539(i)-8(n)-537(mo)-11(de)-10(l)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(structure)-468(\(e.g.,)-457(scientific)-466(hypotheses)-467(and)-456(governing)-466(equa-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tions\),)-309(model)-301(resoluti)-11(on)-298(\(e.g.,)-304(spatiotempora)-14(l)-302(discretization,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(boundary)-424(specification)-424(and)-422(scale)-420(dependence\),)-423(and)-422(model)]TJ T* [(code)-240(\(e.g.,)-241(algorithms,)-242(numerica)-12(l)-234(solvers\).)-246(Another)-245(aspect)-238(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-431(uncertainty)-432(is)-428(the)-425(corresponden)-11(ce)-424(\(or)-426(lack)-431(thereof\))]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(between)-357(model)-357(input-output)-358(and)-354(available)-359(data.)-356(For)-355(exam-)]TJ T* [(ple,)-289(values)-294(assigned)-293(to)-296(areal)-291(or)-289(volumetric)-299(model)-295(inputs)-290(are)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(often)-352(derived)-350(from)-348(point)-352(measurements.)-358(Likewise,)-352(areal)-347(or)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(volumetric)-327(model)-323(outputs)-323(are)-317(often)-323(compared)-320(against)-324(point)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(measured)-282(response)-281(data.)-283(Similar)-283(considerations)-284(apply)-281(to)-273(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(temporal)-252(domain)-243(and)-247(are)-244(parti)-9(cularly)-246(relevant)-251(to)-245(steady)-243(sta)-8(te)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD (models.)Tj 0 Tc 25.9246 67.0729 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 729.0282 Tm (20)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 729.0282 Tm [(])-619(V)106(arious)-250(aspects)-250(of)-244(model)-250(uncertainty)-251(are)-244(amena)-10(ble)-244(to)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(quan)-7(titative)-337(methods.)-339(For)-338(example,)-339(sensit)-9(ivity)-338(analysis)-336(can)]TJ T* [(investi)-10(gate)-516(the)-522(influence)-522(of)-516(model)-522(resolution)-524(and)-513(solver)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(precision)-438([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 6.501 0 Td [(Ahlfeld)-431(and)-433(Hoque)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.8726 0 Td [(,)-430(2008;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.378 0 Td [(Bedogni)-436(et)-432(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.9059 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(20)-9(05)-9(],)-545(and)-547(ide)-12(nti)-14(fi)-9(abi)-12(lit)-12(y)-537(an)-10(al)-7(ys)-11(is)-541(ca)-10(n)-537(r)-7(ev)-10(eal)-545(sy)-11(st)-8(ema)-11(ti)-10(c)]TJ T* [(errors)-342(in)-335(model)-340(structure)-338([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 12.6789 0 Td (Beck)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.9157 0 Td [(,)-334(1987)-7(;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(W)79(agener)-308(et)-336(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.8719 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0995 Td [(2003)-7(].)-409(Propagati)-10(on)-411(of)-408(model)-420(uncertainty)-415(is)-416(the)-414(subject)-415(of)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(ongo)-7(ing)-448(research.)-452(One)-448(approach)-454(introduces)-453(systemati)-12(c)-447(or)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(rando)-8(m)-375(model)-374(error)-381(\(e.g.,)-377(for)-375(numerica)-12(l)-371(models\))-382(at)-376(model)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(runti)-9(me)-318([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.7181 0 Td [(Marin)-329(et)-319(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8516 0 Td [(,)-322(2003].)-325(A)-319(similar)-326(tactic)-328(augments)-328(the)]TJ -8.5697 -1.0996 Td [(model)-255(expression)-253(to)-250(include)-249(explicit)-254(error)-251(terms)-253(\(e.g.,)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0 Tc 21.4583 0 Td (f)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.272 0 Td (\()Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.3231 0 Td (X)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0.2505 Tc 0.7198 0 Td (\)+)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0 Tc -22.7733 -1.0996 Td (e)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5214 0 Td [(\).)-471(Bayesian)-478(network)-477(modeling)-476(can)-468(accommodate)-480(analo-)]TJ -0.5214 -1.0996 Td [(gous)-382(appro)-8(aches)-383([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 7.4362 0 Td (Clark)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.2615 0 Td [(,)-379(2005;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.2817 0 Td [(Clark)-383(and)-382(Gelfand)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.7252 0 Td [(,)-379(2006].)]TJ -20.7045 -1.0996 Td [(Multi)-10(model)-533(strategies,)-543(in)-534(juxtaposition,)-541(propagate)-535(model)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(unce)-8(rtainty)-265(by)-264(considering)-271(multiple)-267(candidate)-271(models)-267(of)-266(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(system;)-656(each)-655(candidate)-656(is)-649(treated)-654(as)-652(a)-651(sample)-653(of)-652(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(complete)-341(distribu)-10(tion)-336(of)-334(possible)-335(models.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 -1.9497 TD [(2.1.3)-7(.)-895(Methods)-340(of)-334(Model)-337(Evaluation)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 522.5526 Tm (21)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 522.5526 Tm [(])-619(Seven)-306(subjective)-308(categories)-313(of)-306(methods)-306(for)-307(quantita-)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(tive)-399(model)-403(evaluation)-402(were)-399(identified)-402(\(see)-397(T)60(able)-397(1,)-395(which)]TJ 0.0186 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(also)-547(includes)-554(method)-547(subclassifications\):)-550(data)-548(analysis)]TJ 0.0084 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(DA\),)-535(i)1(d)9(e)-7(n)9(t)-4(ifia)9(b)-7(i)1(l)8(i)-1(ty)-540(a)9(n)-7(a)9(l)-4(y)9(s)-2(is)-542(\(IA\),)-535(pa)9(ra)9(m)-9(e)9(t)-4(e)9(r)-548(e)9(stim)9(ation)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(PE)-7(\),)-409(uncertainty)-415(analysis)-416(\(UA\),)-414(sensitiv)-10(ity)-411(analysis)-410(\(SA\),)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(multimo)-11(del)-295(analysis)-302(\(MMA\),)-297(and)-298(Bayesian)-296(networks)-302(\(BN\).)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(The)-324(identified)-328(categories)-330(reflect)-328(common)-321(te)-7(rminology)-323(used)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(in)-477(the)-476(literature)-484(when)-475(describing)-482(the)-476(purpose)-478(of)-476(a)-476(given)]TJ T* [(model)-465(evaluation)-465(tool)-461(or)-459(algorithm.)-463(Assig)-9(ning)-458(tools)-461(to)-460(a)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(parti)-9(cular)-279(met)-8(hod)-274(was)-285(occasionally)-283(difficult)-280(and)-281(necessarily)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(subjective)-13(,)-271(as)-272(there)-279(is)-275(a)-272(certain)-280(degree)-275(of)-272(overlap)-276(among)-280(the)]TJ T* [(various)-351(methods.)-350(For)-349(example,)-350(identifiability)-358(analysis)-347(con-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ta)-7(ins)-336(elements)-349(of)-340(both)-339(parameter)-348(estimation)-346(and)-343(sensitivity)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(analysis;)-321(multimodel)-318(analysis)-313(typically)-316(incorporate)-12(s)-307(param-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(et)-7(er)-477(estimation;)-485(and)-473(Bayesian)-483(networks)-483(are)-476(analogous)-483(to)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(simul)-10(taneous)-259(parameter)-268(estimation)-261(and)-258(uncer)-9(tainty)-258(analysis.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Altho)-9(ugh)-388(not)-385(the)-391(focus)-390(of)-391(this)-389(paper)25(,)-385(two)-388(essential)-396(evalu-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(at)-7(ion)-311(met)-8(hods)-314(are)-317(model)-318(verification)-323(and)-320(model)-318(validation,)]TJ T* [(furt)-9(her)-334(defined)-339(in)-335(the)-335(glossary)57(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 313.5826 Tm (22)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 313.5826 Tm [(])-619(Data)-252(analysis)-251(\(DA\))-255(refers)-252(to)-250(analytical,)-258(statistical)-256(and)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(graph)-8(ical)-287(procedures)-291(for)-284(evaluating)-289(and)-286(summarizing)-292(input,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(respon)-9(se,)-453(or)-453(model)-454(output)-453(data.)-458(Capabilities)-463(typically)-457(in-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(cl)-7(ude)-411(data)-414(screenin)-11(g)-407(and)-417(parameteriza)-14(tion)-410(of)-414(distribu)-10(tions)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(for)-409(input)-409(and)-405(response)-406(data.)-407(A)-404(key)-405(attribute)-409(of)-408(geospatial)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-377(time)-379(series)-383(data)-374(analysis)-381([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 12.4635 0 Td [(Br)31(ockwell)-384(and)-376(Davis)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.5471 0 Td [(,)-374(1996;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -21.0106 -1.0996 Td [(de)-435(Smith)-435(et)-432(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.2233 0 Td [(,)-430(2008])-433(is)-433(the)-431(presence)-434(of)-431(scale-de)-12(pendent)]TJ -6.2233 -1.0996 Td [(correlation)-400(stru)-8(ctures.)-392(When)-392(charac)-9(terizing)-395(sampled)-397(popu-)]TJ T* [(la)-7(tions,)-364(descriptions)-371(could)-366(be)-361(expecte)-9(d)-362(to)-364(cover)-366(biotic)-366(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(abioti)-9(c)-334(entities.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 203.5984 Tm (23)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 203.5984 Tm [(])-619(Identifiability)-453(analysis)-450(\(IA\))-453(seeks)-446(to)-443(expose)-449(inade-)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(quac)-8(ies)-376(in)-375(the)-374(data)-380(or)-374(suggest)-379(improveme)-12(nts)-375(in)-375(the)-374(model)]TJ 0 Tc T* [(stru)-8(cture)-505([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 4.2792 0 Td [(Jake)-9(man)-504(and)-507(Hornber)24(ger)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 10.7405 0 Td [(,)-504(1993;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.5367 0 Td (Ljung)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.3238 0 Td [(,)-504(1999;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -20.8802 -1.0996 Td [(So)405(\250)-86(derstr)27(o)403(\250)-80(m)-314(and)-308(Stoica)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.1592 0 Td [(,)-311(1989;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 3.14 0 Td [(Y)82(oung)-313(et)-308(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8233 0 Td [(,)-305(1996].)-313(In)-312(many)]TJ 0.0165 Tc -17.1225 -1.0996 Td [(cases,)-680(I)4(A)-682(u)1(tilizes)-681(seque)6(ntial)-683(p)1(ara)6(m)-1(eter)-682(e)6(s)-1(timation)-679(or)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(performa)-12(nce-based)-557(sensitivity)-557(analysis)-557(to)-551(identi)-9(fy)-550(devia-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tions)-280(of)-272(the)-278(model)-272(from)-280(expected)-274(beha)-8(vior)-273([)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 17.5872 0 Td [(Beck)-273(and)-274(Chen)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.0702 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2000)-7(;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 2.6129 0 Td [(Bec)-7(k)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf [(,)-340(1987;)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 5.1237 0 Td [(W)79(agener)-313(et)-342(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.8832 0 Td [(,)-339(2003].)-342(Alterna)-11(tively)59(,)-339(IA)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -13.6197 -1.0996 Td [(can)-531(reveal)-533(model)-527(parameters)-535(that)-530(cannot)-530(be)-525(constraine)-12(d)]TJ T* [(adeq)-8(uately)-403(because)-404(of)-402(insufficient)-403(quantity)-404(or)-402(diversit)-11(y)-401(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(the)-340(response)-338(data.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 82.6157 Tm (24)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 82.6157 Tm [(])-619(Parameter)-233(estimation)-239(\(PE\))-235(quantifies)-236(uncertain)-238(model)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(parame)-11(ters)-462(on)-462(the)-465(basis)-466(of)-465(the)-465(use)-464(of)-465(model)-465(simula)-10(tions)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-439(available)-438(respon)-9(se)-431(data.)-441(PE)-437(techniques)-441(yield)-438(either)-440(a)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(single)-416(solution)-416(or)-408(multiple)-415(solutions)-416(\(i.e.,)-409(parame)-11(ter)-411(sets\).)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 64.559 753.1793 Tm (W06421)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 13.6069 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-328(ET)-259(AL.:)-333(EV)121(ALUA)102(TING)-332(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 12.2664 -80.459 Td [(3o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 24.4381 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 139 0 obj 18033 endobj 140 0 obj << /GS0 141 0 R /GS1 142 0 R >> endobj 141 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 142 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 143 0 obj /DeviceRGB endobj 146 0 obj << /Length 147 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0.009 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 56.9055 532.1904 Tm [(Sin)9(gle-s)9(o)-7(l)9(utio)9(n)-544(a)9(p)-6(p)9(roa)9(c)-1(he)9(s)-546(v)9(ie)9(w)-548(P)9(E)-541(a)-2(s)-535(a)-2(n)-534(o)-1(p)9(t)-3(im)9(i)-5(z)9(a)-7(tio)9(n)]TJ 0.0109 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(problem)-545(whose)-544(unique)-544(solu)-5(tion)-543(is)-539(a)-544(s)-1(ingle,)-544(\221)72(\221)-1(best)-541(fit\222)72(\222)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(co)-10(nf)-11(igu)-11(r)-7(at)-13(ion)-550(of)-550(mod)-10(el)-551(pa)-10(ram)-13(et)-13(ers)-12(.)-544(A)-472(va)-10(ri)-9(et)-7(y)-543(of)-550(sea)-11(r)-7(ch)]TJ 0.0161 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(algorithms)-545(have)-550(been)-544(successfully)-549(app)6(l)-3(ied)-549(t)-3(o)-544(calibrate)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(various)-289(environmental)-296(models,)-289(and)-286(these)-289(can)-287(be)-287(subdivided)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(into)-257(local,)-256(global,)-260(and)-252(hybrid)-259(search)-254(techniqu)-10(es)-249([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 21.277 0 Td (Bekele)Tj -21.277 -1.0996 Td [(and)-439(Nicklow)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.1294 0 Td [(,)-436(2005;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.4007 0 Td [(Bell)-437(et)-444(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc [(,)-436(2002;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.5892 0 Td [(Duan)-440(et)-438(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8233 0 Td [(,)-442(1992;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -20.9426 -1.0996 Td [(Essaid)-349(et)-342(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.067 0 Td [(,)-340(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.208 0 Td [(Gan)-345(and)-342(Biftu)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.8208 0 Td [(,)-345(1996;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2136 0 Td [(Giacobbo)-343(et)-347(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.3423 0 Td (,)Tj 0.0214 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td [(20)-6(02)-6(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0245 Tc 3.0776 0 Td [(Matott)-686(and)-688(R)-1(abideau)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0214 Tc 9.7373 0 Td [(,)-692(20)-6(08;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0219 Tc 4.0411 0 Td [(M)-6(ugu)-5(nth)-5(a)1(n)-691(a)-5(nd)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -16.8561 -1.0996 Td (Shoemaker)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 4.3869 0 Td [(,)-663(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.8484 0 Td (Raghavan)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 4.0468 0 Td [(,)-663(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.8428 0 Td [(Solomatine)-671(et)-665(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.5268 0 Td (,)Tj 0.0214 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td [(19)6(99)6(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0167 Tc 3.0493 0 Td [(T)81(o)-5(lson)-690(an)-5(d)-685(S)-5(ho)-5(ema)-5(ke)-5(r)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0192 Tc 10.2191 0 Td [(,)-683(2)3(007].)-683(S)-1(ingle-solution)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -13.2683 -1.0996 Td [(parameter)-512(estimation)-505(yields)-506(point)-505(estimates)-511(of)-499(parameter)]TJ 0.0387 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(values)-710(and)-708(provides)-710(no)-708(i)3(n)-5(f)-2(ormation)-708(rega)-6(rd)-5(in)-5(g)-702(t)-3(he)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(confidence)-371(associated)-375(with)-362(such)-366(est)-8(imates.)-367(T)60(o)-362(address)-373(this)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(limitation,)-435(many)-434(PE)-425(codes)-434([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 11.7494 0 Td (Doherty)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(,)-425(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.378 0 Td (Matott)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.6355 0 Td [(,)-430(2005;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -20.9539 -1.0996 Td [(Poeter)-394(and)-388(Hill)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.4443 0 Td [(,)-391(1998])-388(compu)-8(te)-387(various)-391(assumption)-12(-laden)]TJ -6.4443 -1.0996 Td [(postcalibration)-549(parameter)-546(sta)-8(tistics,)-541(including)-544(linear)-547(con-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(fidence)-577(intervals,)-582(parameter)-580(correlation)-576(coefficients,)-576(and)]TJ T* [(parameter)-325(sensitivities.)-327(Some)-320(studies)-320(have)-320(estima)-10(ted)-318(model)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(pa)-10(ram)-13(et)-7(er)-681(unc)-8(ert)-14(ai)-7(nty)-680(by)-678(ex)-10(ami)-14(nin)-11(g)-673(PE)-675(glo)-11(ba)-10(l)-677(sea)-11(rch)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(history)-416([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4857 0 Td [(Evers)-411(and)-416(Lerner)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.2378 0 Td [(,)-413(1998;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.344 0 Td [(Seibert)-415(and)-410(McDonnel)-11(l)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.5843 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td (2002;)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.6072 0 Td [(van)-332(Griensven)-341(and)-337(Meixner)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 11.2789 0 Td [(,)-328(2006)-7(].)]TJ 0 Tc -13.0586 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 290.2251 Tm (25)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 290.2251 Tm [(])-619(Approaches)-496(for)-488(multiple-solution)-497(PE)-488(fall)-492(into)-484(two)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(categories)-324(\(imp)-9(ortance)-322(sampling,)-324(and)-320(Markov)-325(chain)-322(Monte)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Carlo)-424(\(MCMC\))-420(sampli)-10(ng\))-418(and)-417(yield)-421(full)-424(parameter)-427(distri-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(butions)-391(rather)-388(than)-390(simple)-389(point)-386(estimates.)-391(PE,)-391(via)-386(impor)10(-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tance)-351(sampli)-10(ng,)-349(seeks)-350(to)-347(identi)-9(fy)-346(a)-351(family)-356(of)-351(\221)73(\221acceptable\222)67(\222)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(i.e.,)-449(behavioral)-458(or)-448(plausible\))-451(model)-454(parameter)-455(configura-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tions.)-325(Sampled)-326(model)-329(parameter)-331(configurations)-330(are)-329(divided)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(into)-359(behavioral)-362(and)-354(nonbehaviora)-10(l)-354(groups,)-359(according)-360(to)-358(an)]TJ T* [(acceptance)-444(threshold)-437(for)-437(some)-436(objective)-443(function.)-436(This)-440(is)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(referred)-308(to)-296(as)-300(rejection)-310(sampling)-302(because)-302(the)-301(nonbehaviora)-10(l)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(gr)-11(o)-10(up)-547(i)-8(s)-545(d)-10(is)-14(ca)-10(r)-7(de)-15(d)-543(\()-7(i)-8(.e)-10(.)-11(,)-544(r)-7(ej)-13(ec)-10(t)-8(e)-11(d\))-550(an)-15(d)-543(mo)-11(d)-10(el)-551(pa)-10(r)-12(am)-12(et)-13(er)]TJ 0.0246 Tc T* [(distributions)-560(are)-559(e)-3(stimated)-558(using)-558(a)-559(weighted)-558(or)-560(bi)-6(as-)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(co)-10(rr)-8(ec)-10(te)-7(d)-543(com)-11(bin)-11(at)-13(ion)-550(of)-544(the)-550(be)-10(hav)-8(i)-8(ora)-11(l)-541(pa)-10(r)-7(ame)-11(te)-7(r)-545(set)-13(s.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(W)30(ithin)-469(the)-471(environm)-10(ental)-467(modeling)-476(community)56(,)-470(General-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ized)-482(Likelihood)-490(Uncertainty)-486(Engine)-482(\(GLUE)-10(\))-477([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.5029 0 Td [(Beven)-487(and)]TJ -19.5029 -1.0996 Td (Binley)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.4598 0 Td [(,)-351(1992])-359(is)-354(ar)11(guably)-360(the)-352(most)-359(popular)-355(tool)-353(for)-358(PE)-352(via)]TJ -2.4598 -1.0996 Td [(importance)-341(sampling.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 103.2519 Tm (26)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 103.2519 Tm [(])-619(MCMC)-282(parameter)-285(estimation)-284(incorpora)-10(tes)-280(aspects)-278(of)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(importance)-483(and)-479(rejection)-485(sampling)-483(into)-478(a)-476(mat)-8(hematically)]TJ 0.0136 Tc T* [(robust)-544(procedure)-547(f)-4(or)-549(evaluating)-546(c)-3(ondit)-5(ional)-544(probabi)-5(lity)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(distribution)-12(s.)-470(T)66(o)-469(apply)-474(the)-471(MCMC)-475(technique,)-474(model)-476(pa-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(rameter)-287(distributions)-284(initially)-287(are)-283(specified)-285(independently)-286(of)]TJ 25.0971 47.2809 Td [(the)-329(respon)-9(se)-329(data)-329(\(e.g.,)-332(by)-326(assigning)-334(a)-328(uniform)-330(distribu)-10(tion)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(us)-11(ing)-550(lit)-12(era)-11(tur)-13(e-d)-11(eri)-14(ved)-547(par)-11(ame)-11(te)-7(r)-540(bo)-9(un)-9(ds\))-12(.)-538(Th)-7(e)-544(sam)-12(ple)-12(r)]TJ 0.0162 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(evolves)-545(t)-3(hese)-550(prior)-546(m)-2(odel)-547(parameter)-546(distributions)-551(into)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD (posterior)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.9788 0 Td [(distributions)-347(that)-337(are)-340(updated)-342(and)-337(conditione)-11(d)-333(on)]TJ -3.9788 -1.0996 Td [(the)-340(response)-338(data.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 477.1983 Tm (27)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 477.1983 Tm [(])-619(Regardless)-502(of)-487(the)-494(PE)-488(appro)-8(ach,)-490(several)-494(additional)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(conside)-9(rations)-264(exist:)-266(selection)-269(of)-261(an)-265(objective)-268(function)-266([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 -1.0996 TD [(Burnham)-267(and)-257(Anderson)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.5446 0 Td [(,)-260(2002;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0436 0 Td [(Gan)-260(et)-257(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.9675 0 Td [(,)-254(1997;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.0379 0 Td (Hill)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 1.5303 0 Td [(,)-260(1998;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -21.1239 -1.0996 Td [(Kavetski)-305(et)-302(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.7358 0 Td [(,)-300(2002;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.123 0 Td [(Nash)-301(and)-297(Sutcliffe)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.3795 0 Td [(,)-300(1970;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.123 0 Td [(Y)87(apo)-303(et)-302(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.2962 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(1998)-7(],)-261(incorporation)-273(of)-261(prior)-268(information)-271([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.9078 0 Td [(Gupta)-267(et)-268(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.7496 0 Td (,)Tj 0.0158 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td (1998;)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0133 Tc 3.0323 0 Td [(Hil)-6(l)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0158 Tc [(,)-681(1998;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.5601 0 Td [(Kha)6(dam)-683(and)-680(Kaluarachchi)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf [(,)-675(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -8.5924 -1.0996 Td [(Mertens)-466(et)-455(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.8832 0 Td [(,)-459(2004;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4347 0 Td [(Rankinen)-464(et)-455(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.3933 0 Td [(,)-459(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4347 0 Td [(Seibert)-460(and)]TJ -19.1459 -1.0996 Td [(McDonn)-9(ell)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.4662 0 Td [(,)-419(2002],)-427(and)-422(regulariza)-13(tion)-421(of)-425(parameters)-433([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -4.4662 -1.0996 Td (Doherty)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(,)-572(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6614 0 Td [(Doherty)-574(and)-575(Skahill)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.6434 0 Td [(,)-572(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6614 0 Td [(T)82(onkin)-571(and)]TJ -19.1572 -1.0996 Td (Doherty)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(,)-447(2005;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4177 0 Td [(V)105(ermeulen)-454(et)-449(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.8127 0 Td [(,)-447(2005)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4177 0 Td [(V)100(ermeulen)-454(et)-444(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.8184 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2006)-7(].)-239(A)-246(recent)-244(trend)-244(in)-245(calibrating)-248(environ)-9(mental)-247(models)-244(is)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(conside)-9(ring)-250(multiple)-256(or)-249(competing)-254(objectives)-257([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.4551 0 Td [(Gupta)-256(et)]TJ -20.4551 -1.0996 Td (al.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.0259 0 Td [(,)-345(1998)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2193 0 Td [(V)71(rugt)-352(et)-353(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.6193 0 Td [(,)-351(2003])-348(and)-354(numerous)-354(multiobject)-13(ive)]TJ -8.8645 -1.0996 Td [(optimiz)-10(ation)-296(algorithms)-299(have)-297(been)-297(applied)-300([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.6843 0 Td [(Deb)-295(et)-296(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.9731 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2002)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.7319 0 Td [(Hogue)-463(et)-461(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.3051 0 Td [(,)-464(2000;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4404 0 Td [(V)71(rugt)-465(et)-461(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8403 0 Td [(,)-459(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4404 0 Td [(V)71(rugt)-459(and)]TJ -19.758 -1.0996 Td (Robinson)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.7634 0 Td [(,)-334(2007;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(Y)82(apo)-331(et)-336(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.3699 0 Td [(,)-328(1998)-7(].)]TJ 0 Tc -10.4968 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 301.2235 Tm (28)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 301.2235 Tm [(])-619(Uncertainty)-384(analysis)-381(\(UA\))-380(methods)-379(propagate)-382(sour-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(ces)-351(of)-346(uncertainty)-353(through)-349(the)-346(model)-346(to)-347(generate)-350(statistical)]TJ 0.0095 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(mo)10(m)-7(e)10(n)-6(t)2(s)-541(o)-1(r)-536(p)-1(rob)10(a)-6(bility)-539(dis)10(t)-4(ribu)10(tions)-535(fo)10(r)-546(v)-1(a)10(r)-8(io)10(u)-5(s)-541(m)10(o)-7(d)10(e)-6(l)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(outputs.)-305(UA)-299(strategies)-306(include)-306(approximation)-306(and)-298(sampling)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(met)-8(hods.)-404(Approximation)-416(methods)-408(charac)-9(terize)-406(model)-414(out-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(put)-317(uncertainty)-319(by)-315(propagating)-315(one)-315(or)-312(more)-318(moments)-319(\(e.g.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(mean,)-259(variance,)-259(skewness,)-254(and)-258(kurtosis\))-259(of)-249(the)-255(various)-255(input)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(distribu)-10(tions)-484(through)-485(the)-482(modeling)-493(system.)-483(Examples)-490(in-)]TJ T* [(clude)-509(error)-500(propa)-8(gation)-505(equations)-503([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.929 0 Td (Gertner)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.106 0 Td [(,)-504(1987],)-500(point)]TJ -18.035 -1.0996 Td [(e)-11(st)-14(i)-8(ma)-12(t)-8(e)-680(me)-17(th)-12(od)-15(s)-675([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0106 Tc 8.4224 0 Td [(T)92(s)11(a)-6(i)-666(an)11(d)-673(F)3(r)11(anc)11(e)-5(s)11(ch)11(ini)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 9.8223 0 Td [(,)-674(2)-10(00)-15(5])-11(,)-680(an)-15(d)]TJ -18.2447 -1.0996 Td [(various)-419(reliability)-424(methods)-419([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 11.6757 0 Td [(Hamed)-415(et)-415(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.4298 0 Td [(,)-413(1996;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.3497 0 Td (Portielje)Tj -0.0001 Tc -20.4551 -1.0996 Td [(et)-336(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 2.0631 0 Td [(,)-334(2000)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(Skaggs)-335(and)-337(Barry)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.2435 0 Td [(,)-334(1996].)]TJ 0 Tc -11.67 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 169.2425 Tm (29)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 169.2425 Tm [(])-619(Samp)-8(ling)-365(methods)-368(charac)-9(terize)-366(model)-369(output)-368(distri-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(butions)-465(by)-462(propagating)-468(an)-463(intensive)-467(random)-468(sampling)-466(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(each)-417(input)-414(distribution.)-419(Sampling)-413(met)-8(hods)-411(for)-415(uncertainty)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(analysis)-268(may)-266(be)-259(classi)-10(fied)-262(as)-261(Monte)-265(Carlo)-265(sampli)-10(ng)-258(\(MCS\),)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(stra)-9(tified)-329(sampling,)-335(importance)-336(sampling,)-335(or)-329(a)-323(combina)-10(tion)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD ([)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.3231 0 Td [(Cox)-523(and)-518(Baybutt)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.2265 0 Td [(,)-521(1981;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.5594 0 Td [(Helton)-525(et)-517(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc [(,)-521(2006].)-517(Samp)-8(led)]TJ 0.0186 Tc -11.1089 -1.0996 Td [(inputs)-685(are)-689(treated)-683(as)-685(statistically)-689(independent)-686(u)-3(nless)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(correlation)-491(is)-484(inherent)-488(in)-483(the)-482(assumed)-486(distribu)-10(tions)-484(\(e.g.,)]TJ T* [(multiva)-10(riate)-356(normal\))-359(or)-357(restricted)-363(pairing)-358(techniques)-356([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 21.8607 0 Td (Iman)Tj -21.8607 -1.0996 Td [(and)-654(Conover)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.5545 0 Td [(,)-651(1982])-654(are)-658(utilized)-662(to)-653(handle)-655(covariance)]TJ 0 Tc -5.5545 -1.0996 Td [(stru)-8(ctures.)]TJ ET 1 0 0 1 9 -9 cm 0 0 0 rg 47.905 736.101 490.167 -0.51 re f 47.905 586.148 490.167 -0.51 re f 47.905 719.66 99.269 -0.51 re f 147.175 719.66 231.08 -0.51 re f 378.255 719.66 159.817 -0.51 re f 1 0 0 1 -9 9 cm 0 0 0 1 k BT /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 56.9055 732.0328 Tm [(T)84(able)-334(1.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.0909 0 Td [(Quantitative)-344(Methods)-330(of)-335(Model)-336(Evaluation)]TJ 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 90.9779 715.5919 Tm (Method)Tj 17.6192 0 Td [(Purpose)-326(of)-330(the)-330(Method)]TJ 26.0194 0 Td (Subclassifications)Tj -47.9135 -2.0557 Td [(Data)-329(analysis)-330(\(DA\))-4671(to)-333(evaluate)-326(or)-330(summarize)-325(input,)]TJ 13.4509 -1.131 Td [(response,)-325(or)-338(model)-326(output)-327(data)]TJ 31.1698 1.131 Td [(time)-330(series,)-331(populatio)12(n,)-331(geospatial)]TJ -44.6207 -2.2549 Td [(Identifiabil)7(ity)-333(analysis)-330(\(IA\))-1524(to)-333(expose)-321(inadequacies)-325(in)-333(the)-330(data)-334(or)]TJ 13.4509 -1.1239 Td [(suggest)-331(improveme)10(nts)-332(in)-333(the)-330(model)-326(structure)]TJ 32.3292 1.1239 Td [(temporal,)-328(behaviora)11(l,)-334(spatial)]TJ -45.7801 -2.2478 Td [(Parameter)-327(estimation)-330(\(PE\))-1906(to)-333(quantify)-322(uncertain)-332(model)-326(parameters)]TJ 13.4509 -1.1239 Td [(using)-328(model)-333(simulation)10(s)-333(and)-334(available)-326(response)-326(data)]TJ 31.3903 1.1239 Td [(single)-327(solution,)-333(multiple)-327(solution)]TJ -44.8412 -2.2477 Td [(Uncertainty)-326(analysis)-330(\(UA\))-1875(to)-333(quantify)-322(output)-327(uncertainty)-331(by)-330(propagatin)10(g)]TJ 13.4509 -1.131 Td [(sources)-328(of)-330(uncertainty)-331(through)-323(the)-337(model)]TJ 29.3488 1.131 Td [(sampling)-331(methods)11(,)-333(approxima)10(tion)-331(methods)]TJ -42.7997 -2.2549 Td [(Sensitivity)-329(analysis)-323(\(SA\))-2482(to)-333(determine)-326(which)-328(inputs)-328(are)-334(most)-330(significant)]TJ 46.8099 0 Td [(screening)10(,)-333(local,)-333(global)]TJ -46.8099 -1.1239 Td [(Multimodel)-322(analysis)-330(\(MMA\))-816(to)-333(evaluate)-326(model)-326(uncertainty)-331(or)-316(generate)-331(ensemble)-326(predictions)]TJ 13.4509 -1.1239 Td [(via)-330(consideration)-328(of)-330(multiple)-327(plausible)-330(models)]TJ 33.3321 1.1239 Td [(quantita)11(tive,)-336(qualitativ)10(e)]TJ -46.7831 -2.2477 Td [(Bayesian)-324(networks)-331(\(BN\))-2511(to)-333(combine)-321(prior)-334(distributio)9(ns)-331(of)-338(uncertaint)9(y)]TJ 13.4509 -1.1239 Td [(with)-334(general)-327(knowledge)-326(and)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(site-specific)-330(data)-334(to)-326(yield)-335(an)-329(updated)-328(\(posterior\))-325(set)-338(of)-330(distributio)9(ns)]TJ 27.9973 2.2477 Td [(hierarchical)-327(Bayesian,Baye)10(sian)-336(decision)-322(networks)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 288.6094 31.7622 Tm [(4o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -25.8417 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 14.0369 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-322(ET)-265(AL.:)-333(EV)127(ALUA)102(TING)-338(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 37.1281 0 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 147 0 obj 17485 endobj 148 0 obj << /GS0 149 0 R /GS1 150 0 R >> endobj 149 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 150 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 153 0 obj << /Length 154 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 73.063 729.0282 Tm ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 729.0282 Tm (30)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 729.0282 Tm [(])-619(Monte)-412(Carlo)-412(sampling)-415(\(MCS\))-410(draws)-416(unbiased)-411(ran-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(dom)-458(samples)-461(from)-455(a)-459(prescribed)-464(distribution)-460([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.0495 0 Td [(V)100(ose)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 1.825 0 Td [(,)-453(2000)-7(])]TJ -20.8745 -1.0995 Td [(such)-304(that)-309(statistical)-312(sampling)-308(error)-308(can)-304(be)-304(determined)-313(using)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(standard)-407(theory)-407([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.0167 0 Td [(Cullen)-412(and)-405(Fr)31(ey)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.7277 0 Td [(,)-402(1999)-7(].)-403(Given)-404(a)-408(desired)]TJ -13.7444 -1.0996 Td [(level)-603(of)-601(sampling)-608(accuracy)-603(and)-604(precision,)-601(the)-601(required)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sample)-341(size)-336(can)-332(be)-338(determined)-341(unambiguously)55(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0995 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 663.0376 Tm (31)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 663.0376 Tm [(])-619(Stratified)-414(sampling,)-409(e.g.,)-405(Latin)-407(hybercube)-413(sampling)]TJ 0.0164 Tc -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(\(LHS\))-682([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.015 Tc 3.6217 0 Td [(McKay)-687(e)-1(t)-684(a)-1(l.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0167 Tc 6.1156 0 Td [(,)-680(1979],)-680(d)1(ivides)-681(a)-680(g)1(iven)-679(input)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -9.7373 -1.0996 Td [(distribution)-607(into)-603(inte)-8(rvals,)-602(then)-600(genera)-9(tes)-603(samples)-603(from)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(each)-581(interval.)-587(For)-576(efficient)-578(sampling)-585(\(i.e.,)-579(few)-8(er)-579(model)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(runs\),)-289(intervals)-294(typically)-287(are)-289(constructed)-294(so)-283(that)-286(each)-286(has)-288(an)]TJ 0.0126 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(equal)-675(p)-3(robabi)5(lity)-672(of)-674(occurrence.)-678(T)67(wo)-678(a)2(ssumpti)5(ons)-674(i)-1(n)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(obtaining)-544(reliable)-543(model)-544(output)-538(distribu)-10(tions)-541(with)-538(fewer)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-516(runs)-521(are)-516(the)-516(expectation)-521(that)-518(fewer)-519(model)-516(inputs)]TJ T* [(drive)-250(output)-249(variance,)-248(and)-247(that)-246(model)-250(behavior)-247(is)-246(monoton)-9(ic)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-468(linear)-474([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.9367 0 Td [(Campolongo)-469(et)-466(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.8159 0 Td [(,)-470(2000;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4574 0 Td [(Helton)-468(and)-467(Davis)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.4418 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td (2003;)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.6072 0 Td [(Mor)29(gan)-337(and)-331(Henrion)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.6604 0 Td [(,)-334(1990].)]TJ 0 Tc -10.4401 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 542.055 Tm (32)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 542.055 Tm [(])-619(For)-383(uncertainty)-387(analysis,)-387(importance)-387(sampling)-381(typi-)]TJ 0.0133 Tc -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(cally)-547(is)-543(used)-541(t)-6(o)-541(generate)-547(intentionally)-547(biased)-547(samples,)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(ensuring)-503(that)-501(particular)-503(kinds)-498(of)-499(behavi)-9(or)-493(\(e.g.,)-502(rare)-500(but)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(highly)-481(consequential)-481(events\))-482(are)-482(analyzed)-478([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 18.273 0 Td [(Helton)-479(et)-478(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf (,)Tj 0.0167 Tc -18.2731 -1.0996 Td [(2006].)-680(I)-1(mportance)-680(s)-1(ampling)-685(i)3(s)-681(also)-679(u)1(seful)-682(w)-2(hen)-679(an)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(unknown)-284(or)-278(difficult-to-sample)-284(input)-284(distribution)-290(is)-280(\221)73(\221envel-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(oped\222)71(\222)-353(by)-349(an)-350(easily)-354(sampled)-357(alternative)-356(distribution)-358([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 21.549 0 Td (Chen)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -21.549 -1.0996 Td [(2005].)-285(In)-283(these)-284(cases,)-282(the)-284(alternative)-288(distribu)-10(tion)-280(is)-286(sampled)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-570(the)-562(actual)-574(distribution)-573(is)-564(inf)-8(erred)-567(using)-566(import)-10(ance)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(weighting,)-371(in)-364(which)-364(sample)-370(weights)-366(reflect)-368(the)-369(probability)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(that)-258(a)-249(given)-259(alternative)-260(distribution)-261(sample)-256(could)-253(have)-257(come)]TJ T* [(from)-365(the)-357(actual)-364(distribution)-363(of)-357(inte)-8(rest.)-360(This)-361(feature)-364(makes)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(importance)-568(sampling)-563(an)-559(appealing)-565(choice)-565(for)-557(parame)-11(ter)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(estimation)-12(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 388.0771 Tm (33)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 388.0771 Tm [(])-619(UA)-418(sampling)-421(schemes)-419(can)-417(be)-412(layered)-419(\(i.e.,)-420(nested,)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(hierarchica)-13(l,)-268(or)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.2629 0 Td (n)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7652 0 Td [(sta)-8(ge\).)-271(The)-267(amount)-277(of)-266(la)-7(yering)-271(defines)-272(the)]TJ -7.0281 -1.0996 Td [(\221)73(\221order)-40(\222)73(\222)-409(or)-414(\221)73(\221dim)-9(ension\222)68(\222)-409(of)-414(the)-414(resulting)-418(sampling)-421(proce-)]TJ T* [(dure.)-321(Second-order)-323(scheme)-10(s)-312(that)-320(separa)-10(tely)-320(analyze)-321(reduci-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ble)-340(and)-337(irreducible)-349(uncertainty)-347(are)-340(the)-340(most)-342(common)-344([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 -1.0996 TD [(Marin)-323(et)-319(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8516 0 Td [(,)-317(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.157 0 Td [(W)45(u)-316(and)-320(T)82(sang)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.7698 0 Td [(,)-317(2004])-8(.)-317(In)-323(principle,)-325(any)]TJ -13.7784 -1.0996 Td [(separation)-341(of)-334(uncertainties)-344(can)-338(be)-333(nested)-339([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 17.1055 0 Td (Suter)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.0631 0 Td [(,)-334(2006].)]TJ 0 Tc -18.341 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 311.0881 Tm (34)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 311.0881 Tm [(])-619(Sampling)-288(approaches)-284(can)-281(be)-282(computationally)-286(expen-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(sive)-352(when)-345(applied)-357(to)-347(complex)-350(models)-352(because)-353(of)-346(long)-350(run)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(times.)-339(Parallel)-344(processing)-338(can)-338(reduce)-337(the)-335(\221)73(\221wa)-8(ll)-333(time\222)68(\222)-336(\(i.e.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(run)-288(time)-288(from)-285(a)-289(human)-286(perspective\))-290(of)-289(such)-287(analyses)-288(and)-286(is)]TJ 0.0184 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(part)5(icularly)-547(sui)5(t)-1(ed)-553(to)-547(embarrassingly)-547(parall)5(el)-550(sampling)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(methods)-634([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.3189 0 Td [(Babendr)31(eier)-631(and)-626(Castleton)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 11.483 0 Td [(,)-629(2005].)-631(Replacing)]TJ -15.8019 -1.0996 Td [(complex)-645(models)-641(with)-640(cheaper)-637(surroga)-10(te)-636(expressions)-645(is)]TJ T* [(another)-605(way)-601(to)-602(improve)-607(sampling)-608(ef)11(ficiency)55(.)-600(Surrogate)]TJ T* [(approaches)-363(include)-357(the)-352(stochastic)-360(r)-7(esponse)-353(surface)-363(method)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(SRSM\))-397([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.0185 0 Td [(Isukapalli)-394(et)-393(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.467 0 Td [(,)-391(1998],)-393(high-dimen)-11(sional)-393(model)]TJ -10.4854 -1.0996 Td [(representa)-12(tion)-257(\(HDMR\))-258([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.066 0 Td [(Rabitz)-260(and)-257(Alis)]TJ 0 Tc 5.7245 0 Td (\270)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.3514 0 Td [(,)-254(1999;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0323 0 Td [(W)79(ang)-252(et)-257(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.4776 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td [(20)-9(05])-10(,)-668(G)-8(aus)-10(sia)-8(n)-673(emu)-11(la)-7(ti)-10(on)-672(ma)-12(chin)-11(es)-674(\()-7(GEM)-9(\))-7([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.8713 0 Td [(O)-8(\222Hag)-12(an)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.7804 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td [(2006],)-472(artificial)-476(neural)-470(networks)-472(\(ANN\))-473([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 17.4569 0 Td [(van)-468(der)-469(Merwe)]TJ -17.4569 -1.0996 Td [(et)-427(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 2.1538 0 Td [(,)-425(2007])-8(,)-425(and)-422(multiva)-10(riate)-429(adaptive)-430(regression)-431(splines)]TJ -2.1538 -1.0996 Td [(\(MARS\))-367([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.1545 0 Td (Friedman)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.9221 0 Td [(,)-362(1991].)-364(Generalized)-371(polynomial)-369(chaos)]TJ -8.0766 -1.0996 Td [(approaches)-477([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.4135 0 Td [(Xiu)-468(and)-473(Karniadakis)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.7341 0 Td [(,)-470(2002;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.463 0 Td [(Xiu)-468(et)-472(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -19.6107 -1.0996 Td [(2002])-274(and)-269(stochastic)-275(collocation)-274([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 13.4554 0 Td [(Xiu)-270(and)-274(Hesthaven)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.6062 0 Td [(,)-266(2005)-7(])]TJ -21.0616 -1.0996 Td [(can)-327(also)-330(reduce)-326(the)-329(runs)-328(needed)-329(for)-324(uncerta)-11(inty)-325(estimation.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Although)-533(listing)-539(all)-531(available)-535(ANN)-533(tools)-535(is)-530(beyond)-532(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(scope)-592(of)-589(the)-590(work,)-590(the)-590(Fast)-595(Artificial)-597(Neural)-592(Network)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(library)-412([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 3.3553 0 Td (Nissen)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.6469 0 Td [(,)-402(2003])-405(is)-405(provided)-411(as)-402(a)-402(represen)-10(tative)-406(free)]TJ -6.0022 -1.0996 Td [(and)-337(open)-336(source)-333(impl)-10(ementation.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 76.2945 69.1228 Tm (35)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 83.2677 69.1228 Tm [(])-619(Sensitivit)-12(y)-282(analysis)-285(\(SA\))-285(studies)-291(the)-284(degree)-286(to)-284(which)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(model)-352(output)-351(is)-348(influenced)-350(by)-349(changes)-352(in)-347(model)-352(inputs)-353(or)34(,)]TJ 0.0141 Tc 25.0971 67.0729 Td [(more)-552(generally)61(,)-546(t)-5(he)-552(model)-543(i)-5(tsel)-5(f.)-546(SA)-549(methods)-547(h)-2(elp)-546(t)-5(o)]TJ -0.0001 Tc T* [(identi)-9(fy)-306(critica)-11(l)-308(areas)-312(where)-313(knowledge)-315(or)-306(data)-312(are)-312(lacking.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Ideally)55(,)-294(such)-298(informati)-12(on)-292(leads)-301(to)-296(reduction)-300(of)-300(uncertainties)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(in)-318(model)-318(output)-317(via)-318(model)-318(refinemen)-13(ts)-314(or)-317(additional)-320(obser-)]TJ T* [(va)-10(t)-8(ion)-11(s)-545(of)-544(t)-8(he)-542(sy)-11(st)-8(em)-550(un)-9(de)-10(r)-540(st)-14(udy)55(,)-544(ke)-10(yin)-11(g)-543(on)-547(sen)-10(si)-14(ti)-10(ve)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(inputs)-341(with)-334(large)-330(reducible)-340(uncertainties.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0995 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 663.0376 Tm (36)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 663.0376 Tm [(])-619(SA)-442(methods)-442(are)-442(cl)-7(assified)-446(as)-442(screening,)-446(local,)-444(and)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(global.)-181(Scree)-9(ning)-174(methods)-181(are)-181(ef)11(ficient)-11(,)-175(simplistic)-181(te)-7(chniques)]TJ T* [(to)-250(rank)-248(the)-244(import)-10(ance)-247(of)-244(inputs,)-250(generally)-250(without)-254(regard)-248(to)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(possible)-353(interactions)-351([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.8992 0 Td [(Campolongo)-350(and)-342(Saltelli)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 10.1397 0 Td [(,)-345(1997;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -21.0389 -1.0996 Td [(Camp)-8(olongo)-557(et)-557(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.0029 0 Td [(,)-555(2007;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6331 0 Td (Morris)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.7546 0 Td [(,)-555(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6331 0 Td [(Saltelli)-563(et)-557(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.6338 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2004)-7(].)-256(For)-259(highly)-266(parameterized)-268(models,)-261(screening)-265(methods)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(are)-329(extremely)-325(useful)-324(beca)-9(use)-322(model)-323(output)-323(is)-326(often)-323(heavily)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(inf)-8(luenced)-428(by)-428(just)-434(a)-425(f)-7(ew)-426(key)-428(inputs.)-431(Thus,)-431(screening)-435(can)]TJ T* [(help)-549(guide)-542(the)-545(subseq)-8(uent)-543(application)-552(of)-544(more)-544(rigorous)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(met)-8(hods.)-297(Screening)-302(methods)-300(are)-295(also)-301(employed)-298(to)-301(compare)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(the)-340(influence)-340(of)-334(diffe)9(rent)-336(types)-340(of)-334(uncertainty)56(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 542.055 Tm (37)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 542.055 Tm [(])-619(Local)-343(\(i.e.,)-347(differential\))-349(SA)-345(methods)-345(utilize)-352(gradient)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(\(i.e.,)-267(derivative\))-276(information)-271(to)-262(quantify)-272(sensitivity)-268(around)-268(a)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(specifically)-414(configure)-10(d)-401(input)-403(\(i.e.,)-403(a)-407(single)-404(point)-403(in)-403(multi-)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(dimension)-12(al)-495(input)-494(space)-9(\).)-494(Such)-494(methods)-504(are)-493(the)-499(core)-498(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(many)-281(single-solution,)-288(local)-280(search)-277(PE)-278(methods,)-277(e.g.,)-280(Ga)10(uss)12(-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Mar)11(quar)13(dt)10(-Le)14(venb)15(er)16(g)-192(\(GM)9(L\))-191([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.1915 0 Td [(Lev)15(enb)14(er)40(g)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.1148 0 Td [(,)-260(1944;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0436 0 Td [(Mar)29(quar)26(dt)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.3075 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(1963)-7(].)-528(A)-529(key)-524(factor)-535(in)-528(local)-529(SA)-527(is)-530(the)-528(compu)-8(tation)-531(of)]TJ T* [(derivative)-14(s;)-535(relevant)-546(approaches)-539(include)-544(finite)-538(difference)]TJ T* [(perturba)-11(tion)-291(methods)-294(and)-286(automatic)-298(diffe)9(renti)-9(ation)-290([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.9369 0 Td (Bischof)Tj -20.9369 -1.0996 Td [(et)-376(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 2.1028 0 Td [(,)-368(1996;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.259 0 Td [(Elizondo)-377(et)-370(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.0022 0 Td [(,)-374(2002;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2647 0 Td [(Griewank)-372(et)-376(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.3876 0 Td [(,)-368(1996;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -21.0162 -1.0996 Td [(Y)82(ager)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 2.2671 0 Td [(,)-515(2004].)-523(Adjoint)-520(SA)-521(performs)-523(reverse)-521(local)-523(SA)-521(to)]TJ -2.2671 -1.0996 Td [(quan)-7(tify)-287(sensitivity)-291(around)-285(a)-283(specifically)-295(configu)-9(red)-283(output,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(e.g.,)-575(via)-573(specialized)-580(automatic)-576(diffe)9(renti)-9(ation)-568(te)-7(chniques)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD ([)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.3231 0 Td [(Hill)-326(et)-325(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.9051 0 Td [(,)-317(2004)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.1626 0 Td [(Petzold)-322(et)-325(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.3391 0 Td [(,)-317(2006)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.1626 0 Td [(Sandu)-323(et)-319(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.8686 0 Td [(,)-322(2005].)]TJ 0 Tc -19.9337 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.444 388.0771 Tm (38)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.5306 388.0771 Tm [(])-625(G)-13(l)-8(ob)-15(al)-557(SA)-555(me)-17(t)-8(ho)-15(ds)-555(ev)-15(al)-13(u)-10(at)-13(e)-549(i)-8(n)-10(pu)-15(t)-546(s)-12(en)-15(si)-14(t)-8(i)-8(vi)-18(t)-8(y)-543(o)-10(r)]TJ -1.8704 -1.0996 Td [(import)-10(ance)-354(over)-350(the)-352(entire)-354(range)-355(of)-351(a)-351(model\222)44(s)-352(input)-352(space,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-377(can)-372(be)-372(categorized)-379(as)-374(variance)-379(decomposition,)-379(regres-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sion-base)-11(d,)-282(correlation-b)-15(ased,)-287(parameter)-291(bounding,)-288(or)-283(some)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(combina)-10(tion)-268(thereof.)-272(Corre)-9(lation-)-271(and)-269(regression-based)-277(pro-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(cedu)-8(res)-494(involve)-498(graphical)-499(or)-499(statistical)-505(postprocessing)-503(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(possibly)-454(rank-transformed)-455(samples)-455(collected)-450(using)-447(Monte)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(Carlo)-565(or)-555(stratified)-564(sampling)-563([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc (Hamby)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 15.5185 0 Td [(,)-555(1994;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.6331 0 Td [(Helton)-559(and)]TJ -19.1515 -1.0996 Td (Davis)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.3181 0 Td [(,)-419(2003;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.361 0 Td [(Helton)-423(et)-421(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc [(,)-419(2006;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.6264 0 Td [(Hornber)30(ger)-424(and)-416(Spear)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.3519 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(1981)-7(;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.4768 0 Td [(Manache)-204(and)-201(Melching)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.3405 0 Td [(,)-203(2008;)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.9246 0 Td [(Spear)-200(and)-201(Hornber)24(ger)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.9155 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(1980)-7(].)-278(Higher)9(-order)-284(variance)-288(decomposition)-283(procedures,)-285(on)]TJ T* [(the)-340(other)-340(hand,)-335(require)-341(a)-340(more)-335(compu)-8(tationally)-340(demanding)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sampli)-10(ng)-496(in)-500(order)-504(to)-500(evalua)-10(te)-500(complex)-503(multidimen)-12(sional)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(inte)-8(grals)-665([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 4.3869 0 Td [(Chan)-668(et)-670(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.2314 0 Td [(,)-663(2000].)-670(In)-663(total)-673(ef)11(fect)-671(variance)]TJ -9.6183 -1.0996 Td [(deco)-8(mposition)-672(procedures)-677(\(e.g.,)-667(the)-669(Four)-8(ier)-666(Amplitud)-11(e)]TJ T* [(Sens)-8(itivity)-280(T)60(est)-280(\(F)75(AST\))-281([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.0264 0 Td [(Cukier)-253(et)-279(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.9537 0 Td [(,)-277(1978])-280(and)-281(the)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 6.3309 0 Td (Sobol)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 2.2728 0 Td (\222)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.5838 -1.0996 Td [([2001)-8(])-251(method\),)-255(the)-255(total)-254(output)-255(variance)-254(is)-252(expresse)-9(d)-248(as)-255(the)]TJ T* [(sum)-250(of)-249(variances)-249(contributed)-256(by)-247(individual)-251(inputs)-251(\(i.e.,)-250(main)]TJ T* [(effects\))-401(plus)-403(those)-408(of)-402(their)-406(interactions)-413(\(i.e.,)-403(joint)-406(ef)11(fects\).)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(Inputs)-255(that)-252(are)-249(more)-255(sensitive)-253(contribute)-257(to)-250(a)-249(greater)-251(fraction)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(of)-363(the)-357(total)-362(varianc)-11(e.)-356(Parameter)-369(bounding)-357(techniqu)-10(es)-357([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 -1.0996 TD [(Nor)-8(ton)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf [(,)-379(1987,)-380(1996])-382(allow)-384(for)-381(inversion)-386(of)-385(an)-378(acceptabl)-11(e,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(boun)-7(ded)-587(output)-595(set)-592(through)-592(a)-595(model)-590(to)-590(estimate)-596(input)]TJ T* [(parame)-11(ter)-241(bounds)-238(through)-247(set-to-set)-245(mapping.)-241(Origina)-10(lly)-241(for)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(models)-335(with)-328(small)-328(numbers)-333(of)-323(parameters,)-336(recent)-329(advances)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(have)-337(expanded)-338(its)-339(applicability)-341([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 13.2173 0 Td [(Norton)-336(et)-336(al.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.2201 0 Td [(,)-334(2005].)]TJ 0 Tc -17.6099 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 327.3306 102.1181 Tm (39)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 334.3605 102.1181 Tm [(])-619(Multimodel)-458(Analysis)-452(\(MMA\))-456(typicall)-11(y)-447(evaluates)-459(a)]TJ -1.8534 -1.0996 Td [(given)-400(site-specific)-405(problem)-402(statement)-402(when)-401(multiple)-398(plau-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sible)-281(models)-284(can)-276(be)-276(developed)-278(by)59(,)-277(for)-279(example,)-276(conside)-9(ring)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(al)-7(ternative)-389(processes,)-389(using)-384(alternative)-390(modeling)-391(codes,)-388(or)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(by)-383(defining)-380(alternative)-390(boundary)-379(conditions)-386([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.5791 0 Td [(Pachepsky)-383(et)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 64.559 753.1793 Tm (W06421)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 13.6069 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-328(ET)-259(AL.:)-333(EV)121(ALUA)102(TING)-332(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 12.2664 -80.459 Td [(5o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 24.4381 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 154 0 obj 19270 endobj 155 0 obj << /GS0 156 0 R /GS1 157 0 R >> endobj 156 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 157 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 160 0 obj << /Length 161 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 56.9055 729.0282 Tm (al.)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf [(,)-260(2006].)-262(The)-262(resultin)-11(g)-260(consideration)-267(of)-261(multiple)-267(models)-267(is)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(an)-248(important)-254(compo)-8(nent)-249(of)-249(model)-250(evaluation)-255([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 18.4431 0 Td [(Burnham)-255(and)]TJ -18.4431 -1.0995 Td (Anderson)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.8144 0 Td [(,)-334(2002].)]TJ 0 Tc -2.9869 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj 0.0365 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.6409 696.0329 Tm (40)Tj 0.0222 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 76.1244 696.0329 Tm [(])-619(Q)3(u)-5(antitative)-493(M)-5(MA)-495(m)4(e)-6(t)3(hods)-494(a)-6(s)5(sign)-492(performance)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -1.9214 -1.0996 Td [(scores)-164(to)-171(each)-167(candida)9(te)-172(model)-170([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 14.3169 0 Td [(Burnham)-165(and)-167(Anderso)12(n)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.3349 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6518 -1.0996 Td (2002;)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.7376 0 Td [(Y)82(e)-464(et)-466(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.5651 0 Td [(,)-464(2008].)-466(The)-471(scores)-465(help)-470(to)-466(rank)-469(the)-465(best)]TJ -6.3026 -1.0995 Td [(models)-448(or)-448(assign)-448(import)-10(ance)-445(weights)-451(\(e.g.,)-445(for)-449(use)-447(in)-449(an)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(ensemble)-408(forecas)-11(ting\).)-405(Qualitative)-411(MMA)-409(methods)-408(rely)-410(on)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(expert)-657(el)-7(icitation,)-658(stakeho)-9(lder)-653(involvem)-11(ent,)-657(and)-655(quality)]TJ 0 -1.0995 TD [(assurance/qualit)-15(y)-424(control)-426(procedures)-427(to)-426(assess)-426(the)-425(relative)]TJ T* [(merits)-358(of)-357(alternative)-362(models)-358([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 12.0441 0 Td [(Funtowicz)-363(and)-354(Ravetz)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.9835 0 Td [(,)-357(1990;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -21.0276 -1.0996 Td [(van)-337(der)-333(Slujis)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.6281 0 Td [(,)-334(2007].)]TJ 0 Tc -4.8006 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 597.0471 Tm (41)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 597.0471 Tm [(])-619(Bayesian)-404(networks)-404(\(BN\))-404(are)-397(proba)-8(bilistic)-400(graphica)-9(l)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(models)-324(that)-320(combine)-327(prior)-325(distributions)-330(of)-317(uncertainty)-330(with)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(general)-356(knowled)-10(ge)-350(\(e.g.,)-360(as)-351(one)-360(or)-351(more)-357(models\))-359(and)-360(site-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(specific)-332(data)-329(to)-330(yield)-330(an)-327(updated)-331(\(posterior\))-334(set)-325(of)-329(distribu)-10(-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tions.)-257(In)-261(theory)58(,)-254(Bayesian)-257(networks)-262(can)-258(simultaneously)-264(treat)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(uncertain)-289(input)-290(and)-281(respon)-9(se)-283(data,)-288(reducible)-289(and)-281(irre)-9(ducible)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(mo)-17(d)-10(el)-557(pa)-15(r)-7(a)-11(me)-17(t)-8(er)-556(d)-10(i)-8(st)-14(r)-12(i)-8(bu)-15(t)-8(i)-8(o)-10(ns)-16(,)-549(an)-15(d)-549(qu)-15(al)-19(i)-8(t)-8(at)-13(i)-13(ve)-554(e)-11(r)-7(r)-7(o)-10(r)-7(s)-550(i)-8(n)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-442(code,)-444(structure)-446(and)-445(resolution)-445([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 15.9776 0 Td (Clark)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.2615 0 Td [(,)-442(2005;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.4007 0 Td (Clark)Tj -21.6397 -1.0996 Td [(and)-325(Gelfand)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.0273 0 Td [(,)-322(2006].)-330(T)60(wo)-324(subclasses,)-334(hierarchical)-338(Bayesian)]TJ -5.0273 -1.0996 Td [(networks)-461(\(HBN\))-462([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.7713 0 Td [(Borsuk)-460(et)-461(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.4581 0 Td [(,)-453(2004)-7(;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.4347 0 Td (Clark)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.2615 0 Td [(,)-459(2005;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -20.9256 -1.0996 Td [(Clark)-247(and)-240(Gelfand)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.4475 0 Td [(,)-243(2006;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.0096 0 Td [(Elsner)-242(and)-246(Jagger)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.3001 0 Td [(,)-243(2004;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0455 Tc 3.0039 0 Td [(Wi)-45(k)-45(l)-45(e)-287(e)-45(t)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -20.7612 -1.0996 Td (al.)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf [(,)-515(1998;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0512 Tc 4.5682 0 Td [(Wi)-51(k)-51(l)-51(e)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 2.1878 0 Td [(,)-510(2003])-512(and)-513(Bayesian)-517(decision)-522(networks)]TJ -6.756 -1.0996 Td [(\(BDN\))-309([e.g.,)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 5.3618 0 Td (Ames)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.1481 0 Td [(,)-300(2002)-7(;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.123 0 Td [(Neilson)-305(et)-302(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.3674 0 Td [(,)-300(2002;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.123 0 Td [(Sadoddin)-300(et)]TJ -19.1232 -1.0996 Td (al.)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf [(,)-385(2005;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.3132 0 Td [(V)105(aris)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.0404 0 Td [(,)-385(1997)-7(],)-386(were)-387(identified.)-390(Develop)-11(ing)-385(a)-385(BN)]TJ -6.3536 -1.0996 Td [(involves:)-370(defining)-374(a)-362(directed)-375(acyclic)-369(graph)-371(that)-365(specifies)-372(a)]TJ T* [(network)-426(of)-419(conditional)-427(probability)-428(dependenc)-9(ies;)-424(defining)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(prior)-603(probability)-610(distributions)-607(for)-602(all)-599(graph)-604(nodes)-603(\(i.e.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sources)-373(of)-363(uncertain)-12(ty\);)-367(and)-366(defining)-374(a)-362(likeliho)-10(od)-360(f)-7(unction)]TJ T* [(and)-303(sampling)-308(stra)-9(tegy)-305(\(e.g.,)-304(MCMC\))-306(for)-307(inducing)-310(posterior)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(distribution)-12(s)-375(from)-382(prior)-382(distribution)-12(s.)-374(Credal)-384(networks)-387(can)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(supplement)-255(BNs)-249(by)-253(allowing)-254(variables)-257(to)-245(be)-253(associated)-256(with)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(interval)-508(and)-507(set)-506(valued)-508(probabilities)-511([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 15.9719 0 Td [(Cano)-509(et)-500(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.9083 0 Td [(,)-504(1993;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0104 Tc -20.8802 -1.0996 Td [(Co)11(zm)11(an)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 3.3043 0 Td [(,)-674(20)-9(0)-10(0])-11(,)-674(l)-8(ea)-10(di)-12(ng)-683(to)-681(st)-8(u)-10(die)-17(s)-675(of)-680(r)-7(ob)-15(us)-11(tne)-17(ss)-681(an)-10(d)]TJ -3.3043 -1.0996 Td [(incomplete)-342(knowledge)-337(of)-334(uncerta)-11(inties.)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0 -1.6493 TD [(2.2.)-898(Catalog)-341(of)-334(Model)-337(Evaluation)-339(T)82(ools)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.3999 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 313.5826 Tm (42)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 313.5826 Tm [(])-619(Sixty-five)-325(tools)-325(were)-325(identified)-328(and)-320(these)-323(are)-323(briefly)]TJ 0.0118 Tc -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(summar)5(i)-2(zed)-542(in)-537(the)-543(a)1(uxil)4(i)-2(ary)-542(m)12(ateri)4(a)1(l.)-543(U)4(sing)-542(t)4(he)-543(seven)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-448(evaluation)-448(methods)-447(discussed)-447(in)-443(section)-443(2.1.3,)-443(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(overall)-393(tool)-393(coverage)-392(consisted)-392(of:)-387(data)-391(analysis)-393(\(5)-391(tools\),)]TJ 0.0149 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(identifiabili)-4(ty)-545(analysi)-4(s)-547(\(10)-545(t)-4(ool)-4(s)3(\),)-546(parameter)-547(e)-1(stimation)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(32)-197(tools\),)-196(uncerta)-11(inty)-195(analysis)-200(\(26)-197(tools\),)-196(sensit)-9(ivity)-197(analysis)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(33)-248(tools\),)-252(multimodel)-256(analysis)-251(\(6)-249(tools\),)-247(Bayesian)-257(networks)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(\(5)-431(tools\).)-428(Some)-428(are)-431(available)-433(for)-432(download)-428(as)-431(standalone)]TJ T* [(executables,)-293(complete)-290(with)-288(user)-283(manual;)-291(some)-289(are)-283(provided)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(as)-402(source)-401(code)-405(on)-400(request)-408(from)-404(a)-396(designa)-9(ted)-397(contac)-10(t;)-401(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(others)-199(are)-204(available)-200(only)-203(as)-198(published)-202(algorithm)-203(descriptions.)]TJ T* [(In)-289(general,)-293(if)-287(an)-287(algorit)-10(hm)-289(description)-291(was)-291(readily)-297(available)]TJ 0.0115 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(as)-482(part)-484(of)-477(a)-481(g)-4(ive)-5(n)-475(software)-481(package,)-481(only)-480(t)4(he)-481(software)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(package\(s\))-230(\(i.e.,)-228(not)-226(the)-227(algorithm)-231(descriptions\))-236(were)-229(consid-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ered)-333(to)-330(be)-327(tools.)-330(For)-332(this)-332(reason,)-332(common)-332(algorithms)-339(\(e.g.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(LHS,)-330(F)70(AST\))-332(are)-334(not)-334(listed)-334(as)-334(separate)-335(tools.)-336(Although)-335(free)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-275(open)-279(source)-276(tools)-280(are)-278(better)-281(fits)-278(for)-279(integrated)-280(modeling)]TJ 0 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD ([)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.3231 0 Td [(Jolma)-483(et)-483(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.118 0 Td [(,)-544(2008;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.6047 0 Td [(V)100(oinov)-542(et)-546(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 6.0702 0 Td [(2008],)-546(some)-544(popular)]TJ -15.1161 -1.0996 Td [(proprietary)-342(tools)-337(are)-334(als)-8(o)-333(included)-339(in)-335(the)-335(catalog.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 104.6126 Tm (43)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 104.6126 Tm [(])-619(T)60(able)-385(2)-384(is)-382(a)-385(functionality)-390(mat)-8(rix)-382(for)-386(the)-386(tools)-388(eval-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(uated,)-440(and)-434(T)60(able)-436(3)-435(has)-441(a)-430(corresp)-11(onding)-438(list)-438(of)-436(tool)-438(acro-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(nyms.)-520(Each)-522(row)-518(of)-516(the)-522(matrix)-520(corresp)-11(onds)-518(to)-517(a)-515(unique)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-420(evaluation)-419(tool)-421(and)-417(the)-414(columns)-419(identi)-9(fy)-414(the)-414(capa-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(bilities)-349(and)-343(availabili)-12(ty)-341(of)-346(a)-345(given)-344(tool.)-347(Shorthand)-352(notation)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(used)-281(in)-284(the)-278(columns)-289(is)-280(expanded)-282(in)-284(the)-284(legend,)-280(and)-281(maps)-283(to)]TJ 25.0971 67.923 Td [(the)-488(subclassification)-18(s)-482(described)-492(in)-488(section)-489(2.1.3.)-488(Citation)]TJ T* [(counts)-497(for)-488(each)-490(tool)-495(were)-495(generated)-491(using)-492(the)-493(SCOPUS)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(databas)-10(e)-527([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.2622 0 Td (Burnham)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.7124 0 Td [(,)-527(2006].)-534(The)-528(counts)-537(provide)-531(a)-532(rough)]TJ -7.9746 -1.0996 Td [(gauge)-273(of)-266(the)-272(maturity)-278(and)-269(impact)-269(of)-272(a)-266(given)-276(tool,)-268(but)-272(do)-270(not)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(distinguish)-242(between)-244(actual)-234(tool)-240(usage)-235(and)-235(its)-237(simple)-236(ci)-7(tation,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(e.g.,)-382(as)-374(part)-381(of)-380(a)-379(literature)-382(review)-383(or)-380(as)-380(an)-372(al)-7(ternative)-383(that)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(was)-393(considered,)-394(but)-385(disregarde)-11(d.)-384(Citation)-394(counts)-390(were)-393(not)]TJ T* [(rest)-9(ricted)-417(to)-409(any)-417(particular)-418(set)-416(of)-414(publications.)-421(Thus,)-414(they)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(serve)-396(as)-385(an)-389(indir)-9(ect)-386(and)-394(imperfect)-396(measure)-391(of)-391(the)-391(state)-395(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(practice)-342(in)-335(the)-335(environmental)-347(modeling)-340(community)56(.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 619.0439 Tm (44)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 619.0439 Tm [(])-619(A)-217(W)75(eb)-287(site)-288(\(www)61(.epa.gov/athe)-12(ns/research/modeli)-17(ng/)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(modelev)-10(aluation/index.html\),)-272(also)-262(presented)-265(in)-262(the)-261(auxiliary)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(mat)-8(erial,)-281(was)-280(developed)-284(as)-278(a)-277(companion)-285(to)-279(the)-278(tool)-280(catalog.)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(The)-307(site)-310(augments)-311(T)60(able)-306(2)-305(by)-309(including)-306(downloa)-10(d)-305(links)-308(for)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(identi)-9(fied)-319(tools.)-319(T)60(o)-316(request)-323(table)-319(additions)-319(\(e.g.,)-321(for)-318(new)-323(or)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(overloo)-9(ked)-343(tools\))-349(and)-343(modifications)-351(\(e.g.,)-349(changing)-347(a)-345(W)75(eb)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(address)-339(or)-334(other)-340(corrections\))-343(please)-340(contact)-335(the)-340(authors.)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 10.9987 0 0 10.9987 307.9417 525.5574 Tm [(3.)-997(Discussion)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 316.2188 511.5542 Tm ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 511.5542 Tm (45)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 511.5542 Tm [(])-619(The)-443(catalog)-442(presented)-441(in)-443(section)-443(2.2)-433(illustrates)-452(the)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(wide)-382(variety)-387(of)-380(tools)-376(cove)-8(ring)-381(all)-378(aspects)-386(of)-380(model)-380(evalu-)]TJ T* [(atio)-8(n.)-457(Integrating)-468(these)-465(tools)-461(would)-460(facilitate)-469(routi)-9(ne)-457(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(compre)-10(hensive)-293(model)-289(evaluations)-295(within)-295(the)-289(environm)-10(ental)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(modeling)-255(commun)-9(ity)59(.)-249(However)27(,)-249(there)-250(are)-255(numerous)-252(barriers)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(to)-307(achieving)-310(such)-304(integration.)-309(Many)-308(diffe)9(rent)-308(programm)-11(ing)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(langua)-9(ges,)-236(compilers,)-246(and)-241(development)-247(platforms)-249(have)-240(been)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(utilized)-11(,)-260(leaving)-260(largely)-257(incompatible)-269(source)-265(codes.)-263(Further-)]TJ T* [(more,)-312(independen)-11(t)-308(source)-310(codes)-309(are)-312(necessarily)-314(a)-311(combina-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tion)-257(of)-255(user)-261(and)-252(model)-261(interface)-264(code,)-257(algorithmic)-261(code,)-257(and)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(ex)-10(ec)-10(ut)-12(ion)-550(man)-11(ag)-10(em)-12(en)-10(t)-541(co)-10(de)-548(\(i)-9(.e)-10(.,)-543(co)-10(de)-548(whi)-14(ch)-542(ex)-10(er)-12(ci)-7(se)-11(s)]TJ T* [(a)-11(r)-7(bi)-12(t)-8(r)-7(ar)-18(y)-543(mo)-17(de)-10(l)-552(ex)-10(e)-11(cu)-10(t)-8(a)-11(bl)-12(es)-550(a)-11(nd)-15(,)-544(i)-8(f)-545(n)-10(ec)-10(e)-11(ss)-12(ar)-12(y)52(,)-544(pe)-15(r)-7(f)-7(or)-17(ms)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(a)-11(s)-12(so)-16(ci)-19(at)-19(ed)-559(er)-18(r)-7(o)-10(r)-551(h)-10(an)-15(d)-10(l)-8(i)-8(n)-10(g)-10(\))-7(.)-549(I)-12(f)-551(t)-8(he)-559(co)-15(d)-10(e)-549(i)-8(s)-550(n)-10(o)-10(t)-546(c)-11(a)-11(r)-7(e)-11(f)-7(u)-10(l)-8(l)-13(y)]TJ 0.01 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(cons)10(t)-9(r)3(ucted,)-539(s)10(e)-7(paratin)10(g)-549(tool)-542(s)10(c)-7(ience)-539(f)3(rom)-541(t)2(ool)-542(interface)]TJ 0.0119 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(a)-4(n)2(d)-542(e)1(xecution)-548(management)-540(c)-4(an)-542(be)-549(dif)12(f)-2(icult.)-543(But,)-543(suc)-4(h)]TJ 0.0162 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(separation)-544(is)-545(needed)-549(if)-552(integrated)-549(tools)-545(are)-550(to)-549(have)-544(a)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(consistent)-343(look)-339(and)-332(feel)-337(as)-334(well)-340(as)-334(consistent)-343(execution.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 324.581 Tm (46)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 324.581 Tm [(])-619(Another)-523(common)-519(inte)-8(gration)-517(barrier)-525(is)-518(the)-516(preva-)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(lence)-317(of)-312(diffe)9(rent)-313(input-output)-319(\(I/O\))-313(file)-311(formats)-321(utilized)-311(by)]TJ T* [(the)-301(various)-294(sta)-8(ndalone)-297(executable)-298(tools.)-302(I/O)-294(incompatibili)-13(ty)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(complicates)-474(both)-463(tool)-467(integration)-469(\(i.e.,)-466(linking)-466(outputs)-470(of)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(one)-303(tool)-302(to)-301(the)-306(inputs)-302(of)-306(another\))-306(and)-303(tool)-302(comparison)-305(\(i.e.,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(compa)-9(ring)-250(diffe)9(rent)-251(tools)-252(with)-249(similar)-258(functionality\).)-255(Recent)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(atte)-9(mpts)-291(at)-291(I/O)-294(\221)67(\221standardization\222)64(\222)-296(include)-294(adopting)-298(PEST)-290(I/)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(O)-557(conventions)-558([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.9544 0 Td (Doherty)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [(,)-555(2004;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.6274 0 Td [(Gallagher)-563(and)-552(Doherty)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.8847 0 Td (,)Tj -0.0001 Tc -23.6574 -1.0996 Td [(2007)-7(;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 2.7829 0 Td [(Skah)-7(ill)-511(et)-512(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.5091 0 Td [(,)-510(2009]\),)-513(using)-515(the)-516(XML)-514(\(extensible)]TJ -8.292 -1.0996 Td [(markup)-661(la)-7(nguage\))-659(format)-661([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 11.8627 0 Td [(Gernaey)-667(et)-659(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 6.467 0 Td [(,)-657(2006],)-659(and)]TJ -18.3297 -1.0996 Td [(several)-262(proposed)-262(APIs)-256([)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.5106 0 Td [(Banta)-256(et)-257(al.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.6136 0 Td [(,)-254(2006)-7(;)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.0323 0 Td [(Reich)-8(ert)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.3497 0 Td [(,)-254(2006]\).)]TJ -20.5061 -1.0996 Td [(Wheth)-9(er)-488(or)-493(not)-487(one)-490(of)-493(these)-493(proposed)-494(standards)-493(can)-491(be)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(universa)-10(lly)-247(accepted)-252(and)-247(adopte)-9(d)-243(remains)-257(to)-245(be)-248(seen.)-253(Rather)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(than)-317(developing)-319(yet)-312(another)-316(\221)73(\221locall)-11(y)-311(arbitrary\222)63(\222)-313(I/O)-311(format,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(future)-251(tool)-251(developers)-247(may)-249(prefer)-251(to)-250(adopt)-247(at)-245(least)-247(one)-247(of)-249(the)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(propo)-8(sed)-333(\221)73(\221standards.\222)61(\222)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 319.4503 148.6062 Tm (47)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 326.4235 148.6062 Tm [(])-619(From)-446(a)-447(modeler)-35(\222)50(s)-448(perspective,)-447(the)-448(ability)-448(to)-443(sel)-8(ect)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(multiple)-358(standalone)-356(tools)-354(and)-349(have)-348(them)-353(interoperate)-360(via)-352(a)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(st)-8(an)-10(dar)-11(diz)-12(ed)-542(I/)-9(O)-540(sch)-10(eme)-550(is)-541(al)-7(l)-541(tha)-12(t)-541(may)-549(be)-542(des)-10(ir)-9(ed)-542(or)23(,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(indeed)-9(,)-498(required.)-504(For)-502(example,)-503(if)-502(DUE,)-505(DYNIA,)-507(GLUE)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(and)-281(MMA)-284(all)-281(follo)-9(wed)-278(the)-284(same)-284(I/O)-283(conventions,)-285(modelers)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(could)-395(conveniently)-394(exercise)-397(all)-389(seven)-394(of)-391(the)-391(model)-391(evalu-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(atio)-8(n)-333(methods)-340(with)-339(a)-334(single)-342(syntax.)-338(On)-335(the)-340(other)-335(hand,)-341(for)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(an)-406(inte)-8(grated)-408(modeling)-414(frame)-410(worker)27(,)-408(simply)-406(agreein)-11(g)-401(on)]TJ T* [(standard)-430(I/O)-424(may)-424(not)-425(be)-423(the)-425(preferred)-431(end)-422(game)-429(for)-426(tool)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(inte)-8(roperability)57(.)-402(One)-397(reason)-406(is)-399(that)-399(many)-400(frameworks)-411(em-)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 288.6094 31.7622 Tm [(6o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -25.8417 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 14.0369 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-322(ET)-265(AL.:)-333(EV)127(ALUA)102(TING)-338(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 37.1281 0 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 161 0 obj 18329 endobj 162 0 obj << /GS0 163 0 R /GS1 164 0 R >> endobj 163 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 164 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 167 0 obj << /Length 168 0 R >> stream 1 0 0 1 9 -9 cm 0 0 0 rg 1 i /GS0 gs 55.786 712.29 490.167 -0.51 re f 55.786 679.408 103.805 -0.51 re f 159.59 695.849 265.493 -0.51 re f 448.214 695.849 97.739 -0.51 re f 159.59 679.408 37.474 -0.51 re f 197.065 679.408 37.02 -0.51 re f 234.085 679.408 45.638 -0.51 re f 279.723 679.408 45.638 -0.51 re f 325.361 679.408 45.581 -0.51 re f 370.942 679.408 40.139 -0.51 re f 411.08 679.408 37.134 -0.51 re f 448.214 679.408 45.071 -0.51 re f 493.285 679.408 37.02 -0.51 re f 530.305 679.408 15.647 -0.51 re f 1 0 0 1 -9 9 cm 0 0 0 1 k BT /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 64.7858 708.2219 Tm [(T)84(able)-334(2.)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 4.0909 0 Td [(T)60(ools)-337(for)-336(Model)-330(Assessment)]TJ 0 Tc 6.7246 0 0 5.9768 205.611 712.2471 Tm (a)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 87.2362 675.3967 Tm [(T)63(ool)-331(Name)]TJ 22.826 2.0557 Td [(Assessme)10(nt)-333(Method)]TJ 24.9882 0 Td [(Impact)-330(and)-334(A)78(vailability)]TJ -37.6069 -2.0557 Td (DA)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 180.0424 678.9116 Tm (b)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 207.5952 675.3967 Tm (IA)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 215.8724 678.9116 Tm (c)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 248.3007 675.3967 Tm (PE)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 257.485 678.9116 Tm (d)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 292.9747 675.3967 Tm (UA)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 304.37 678.9116 Tm (e)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 339.5763 675.3967 Tm (SA)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 349.6676 678.9116 Tm (f)Tj -0.0002 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 379.9416 675.3967 Tm (MM)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 394.0015 678.9116 Tm (g)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 420.0802 675.3967 Tm (BN)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 431.1353 678.9116 Tm (h)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 461.1259 675.3967 Tm (CIT)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 473.655 678.9116 Tm (i)Tj -0.1276 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 503.2487 675.3967 Tm (AV)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 513.6802 678.9116 Tm (j)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 539.3054 675.3967 Tm (DIS)Tj 0 Tc 5.9774 0 0 5.3127 551.9479 678.9116 Tm (k)Tj -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 64.7858 658.9557 Tm (ACE)Tj 18.3519 0 Td (2)Tj 32.0162 0 Td [(2)-4109(2,)-331(4)-3711(1)]TJ -50.3681 -1.131 Td (ACUARS)Tj 23.5375 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(2)-4650(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.3682 -1.1239 Td (AMALGAM)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (3)Tj 26.8307 0 Td [(5)-4650(2)-4252(2)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (BaRE)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(75)-4399(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.1192 -1.1239 Td [(BA)103(TEA)]TJ 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(34)-4399(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.1192 -1.1239 Td (BFL)Tj 18.3519 0 Td (1)Tj 32.0162 0 Td [(1)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(3)-3626(1)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (BFS)Tj 4.4081 Tc 45.2111 0 Td [(16)4408(8)9(1)157(3)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -45.2111 -1.131 Td (BMC)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(39)-4399(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.1193 -1.1239 Td (BMElib)Tj 13.0526 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)]TJ 0.126 Tc 37.0665 0 Td [(5)126(4)-3647(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.1191 -1.1239 Td (BUGS)Tj 45.2111 0 Td [(1)-4159(576)-3522(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -45.2111 -1.1239 Td (CANOPI)Tj 29.2635 0 Td (3)Tj 21.1047 0 Td [(4)-4650(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td [(DAKOT)75(A)]TJ 22.9115 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)-3434(1)-126(\226)-119(2,)-331(4)-4060(2)]TJ 27.2078 0 Td [(72)-3773(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.1193 -1.1239 Td (DBM)Tj 18.3519 0 Td (2)Tj 31.5183 0 Td [(187)-3522(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.8702 -1.1239 Td [(DDS,)-330(DDS-AU)]TJ 22.9968 0 Td [(2,)-331(4)-4686(3)]TJ 11.9857 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(2)-4109(2,)-331(4)-3711(1)]TJ -50.3682 -1.131 Td (DUE)Tj 13.0527 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)]TJ 0.126 Tc 37.3154 0 Td [(7)-3898(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (DYNIA)Tj 17.726 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(2)]TJ 32.3933 0 Td [(51)-3773(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.1192 -1.1239 Td (EESA)Tj 14.8857 Tc 34.9824 0 Td (14)Tj 20.5356 0 Td (2)Tj 4.7516 0 Td (1)Tj -0.0001 Tc -60.2696 -1.1239 Td [(F)75(ANN)]TJ 13.2092 0 Td [(NA)-3238(NA)-3750(NA)-4290(NA)-4290(NA)-3942(NA)-3408(NA)-4191(6)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -13.2092 -1.1239 Td (GEM)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (1)Tj 5.719 0 Td (5)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(9)-4024(3)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.3682 -1.1239 Td (GLUE)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 14.8878 0 Td [(539)-3522(3)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.8703 -1.131 Td (HBC)Tj 0.126 Tc 45.2111 0 Td [(1)-4531(0)-3898(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ 4.2902 Tc -45.2111 -1.1239 Td [(H)4290(D)4290(M)4290(R)]TJ 13.2091 0 Td [(N)4290(A)1053(N)4290(A)541(N)4290(AN)4290(AN)4290(A)349(N)4290(A)882(N)4290(A)349(4)4290(4)-109(2)39(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -13.2091 -1.1239 Td (IBUNE)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td [(1)-4885(2)]TJ 15.3857 0 Td [(3)-4650(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (JAGS)Tj 0.126 Tc 45.2111 0 Td [(1)-4531(3)-3898(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -45.2111 -1.1239 Td (JUPITER)Tj 23.5372 0 Td (1)Tj 11.445 0 Td (2)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(4)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.3679 -1.1239 Td [(LH-OA)106(T)]TJ 34.9824 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(10)-3773(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.1192 -1.1239 Td (MARS)Tj 13.2092 0 Td [(NA)-3238(NA)-3750(NA)-4290(NA)-4290(NA)-3942(NA)-3408(NA)-3693(814)-3522(3)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ 0.126 Tc -13.2092 -1.131 Td [(M)126(C)126(A)232(T)]TJ 17.7259 0 Td (1\2262)Tj 16.8867 0 Td [(1)126(,)126(3)]TJ 15.7556 0 Td [(9)-3898(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.3683 -1.1239 Td [(MCMC-SR)11(SM)]TJ 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(5)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(2)]TJ -50.3682 -1.1239 Td (mGLUE)Tj 23.5375 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(6)-4650(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.3683 -1.1239 Td (MICA)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(5)-4109(2,)-331(4)-3711(2)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (MICUT)Tj 22.9968 0 Td [(1,)-331(3)]TJ 27.3713 0 Td [(4)-4109(2,)-331(4)-3711(2)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td [(MLBMA,)-325(BMA)]TJ 40.367 0 Td (2)Tj 8.8701 0 Td [(24/300)-2971(2,)-331(3)-3711(1)]TJ -0.0002 Tc -49.2371 -1.131 Td (MMA)Tj 0.126 Tc 40.367 0 Td (2)Tj 9.7663 0 Td [(1)157(1)-3663(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.1333 -1.1239 Td (MOCOM)Tj 23.5375 0 Td (2)Tj 26.3328 0 Td [(159)-4148(2)-4252(2)]TJ -49.8703 -1.1239 Td (MOGSA)Tj 34.9825 0 Td (3)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(63)-4399(2)-4252(2)]TJ -50.1193 -1.1239 Td (MOSCEM)Tj 23.5375 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(69)-3773(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.1193 -1.1239 Td (NLFIT)Tj 22.9968 0 Td [(2,)-331(5)-4686(3)]TJ 11.9857 0 Td (1)Tj 14.8878 0 Td [(135)-3607(2,)-331(3)-3711(2)]TJ -49.8702 -1.1239 Td (NSGA)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (2)Tj 26.3328 0 Td [(814)-4148(2)-4252(1)]TJ -49.8702 -1.1239 Td (NUSAP)Tj 9.2521 Tc 40.367 0 Td (13)Tj 10.252 0 Td (7)Tj 4.4295 0 Td (N)Tj 0.7179 0 Td (A)Tj 4.0337 0 Td (N)Tj 0.7179 0 Td (A)Tj -0.0001 Tc -60.518 -1.131 Td (OSTRICH)Tj 22.9113 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)]TJ 12.0711 0 Td [(2)-4885(2)]TJ 15.3857 0 Td [(7)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (ParaSol)Tj 23.5372 0 Td (4)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(2)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.368 -1.1239 Td (PEAS)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (1)Tj 11.445 0 Td (2)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(2)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(2)]TJ -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (PEST)Tj 22.9114 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)-3974(3)-126(\226)-119(4)-4600(2)]TJ 26.9589 0 Td [(197)-3522(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.8702 -1.1239 Td (PIMLI)Tj 18.3519 0 Td [(1)-4686(5)]TJ 10.9116 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 15.1368 0 Td [(24)-4399(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.1192 -1.1239 Td (PSO)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (2)Tj 26.0839 0 Td [(2473)-3271(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.6213 -1.131 Td (PyMC)Tj 23.5374 0 Td (5)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (1)Tj 10.2287 0 Td [(1)-4657(0)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ 0.126 Tc -45.2112 -1.1239 Td (R)Tj 13.0526 0 Td (1\2263)Tj -0.0001 Tc 36.5686 0 Td [(2439)-3271(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.6212 -1.1239 Td (ReBEL)Tj 18.3519 0 Td (1)Tj 32.0162 0 Td [(6)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -0.0002 Tc -50.3681 -1.1239 Td (RIMME)Tj 29.2631 0 Td (3)Tj 5.719 0 Td (3)Tj 15.3857 0 Td [(4)-4650(2)-4252(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.3678 -1.1239 Td (SADA)Tj 13.0527 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(2)]TJ 0.126 Tc 37.3154 0 Td [(2)-3898(3\2264)-3500(1)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -50.3681 -1.1239 Td 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0 Td (4)Tj 26.5818 0 Td [(16)-4399(1)-4252(3)]TJ -50.1189 -1.1239 Td (SUNGLASSES)Tj 29.2635 0 Td (3)Tj 21.1047 0 Td [(3)-4024(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -50.3682 -1.1239 Td (UCODE)Tj 23.5375 0 Td (1)Tj 5.7261 0 Td (4)Tj 5.719 0 Td (2)Tj 14.8878 0 Td [(148)-3522(2)-126(\226)-126(4)-3626(1)]TJ -49.8703 -1.1239 Td [(UNCER)57(T)]TJ 13.0527 0 Td [(1)-126(\226)-126(3)]TJ 0.126 Tc 37.0664 0 Td [(2)126(0)-3647(2\2264)-3500(1)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 64.559 753.1793 Tm (W06421)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 13.6069 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-328(ET)-259(AL.:)-333(EV)121(ALUA)102(TING)-332(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ 0.3283 Tc 12.2664 -80.459 Td [(7o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 24.4381 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 168 0 obj 10037 endobj 169 0 obj << /GS0 170 0 R /GS1 171 0 R >> endobj 170 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 171 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op 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Tc 12.2664 -80.459 Td [(9o)328(f)-7(1)328(4)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 24.4381 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 182 0 obj 8054 endobj 183 0 obj << /GS0 184 0 R /GS1 185 0 R >> endobj 184 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 185 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 188 0 obj << /Length 189 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 56.9055 729.0282 Tm [(popular)-383(delivery)-386(mechanisms)-386(for)-381(emerging)-374(tools)-382(\(e.g.,)-383(see)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tool)-274(summaries)-276(in)-267(the)-272(auxiliary)-275(material\))-280(and)-269(environmental)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(models)-261(\(e.g.,)-253(T)26(imML)-254([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 9.0685 0 Td (Bakker)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.7772 0 Td [(,)-254(2006])-257(and)-252(qtcm)-262([)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.3341 0 Td (Lin)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.3206 0 Td 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[(in)-443(a)-436(plet)-8(hora)-440(of)-442(institutional)-446(frameworks,)-450(each)-445(of)11(fering)-444(a)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(unique)-354(approach.)-357(Evidenced)-361(by)-349(this)-355(survey)59(,)-357(model)-352(evalua-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(tion)-365(tool)-359(developers)-366(have)-365(provided)-365(a)-357(wide)-365(array)-363(of)-363(useful,)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(but)-544(hig)-11(hly)-544(rep)-11(eti)-9(tiv)-9(e,)-543(non)-8(int)-9(ero)-11(pera)-10(ble)-545(mod)-10(el)-540(ev)-10(alua)-11(tio)-9(n)]TJ T* [(technologies.)-254(On)-250(some)-249(level,)-251(tool)-246(develo)-9(pers)-244(are)-249(themselves)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(frame)-274(workers,)-279(except)-276(that)-275(they)-277(prescribe)-279(I/O)-271(and)-275(execution)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(management)-406(schemes)-402(to)-398(facilitate)-406(model)-403(evaluation)-402(rather)]TJ T* [(than)-413(model)-408(integrati)-12(on.)-405(Thus,)-414(the)-408(irony)-413(in)-409(design)-412(of)-408(both)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(model)-352(evaluation)-357(tools)-348(and)-349(integrated)-354(modeling)-357(systems)-354(is)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(that)-439(everyone)-443(wants)-445(to)-437(define)-442(the)-437(\221)73(\221standard\222)61(\222)-438(and)-439(be)-435(the)]TJ 0.0121 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(integrative)-548(framework.)-543(T)4(his)-544(p)2(resents)-544(n)-4(atural,)-543(y)2(et)-545(unre-)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(solved,)-417(conflict)-418(for)-420(a)-413(community)-420(that)-416(would)-414(bene)-8(fit)-413(from)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sharing)-340(models)-335(and)-337(model)-335(evalua)-10(tion)-336(tools.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.8275 -1.0996 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 68.4141 476.0644 Tm (55)Tj 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 75.3874 476.0644 Tm [(])-619(Ultimately)51(,)-345(we)-347(anticipate)-355(robust)-346(commun)-9(ity)-349(support)]TJ -1.8477 -1.0996 Td [(for)-488(only)-492(a)-487(smal)-9(l)-490(number)-491(of)-487(de)-491(facto)-488(frameworks)-502(within)]TJ 0.011 Tc T* [(dif)11(f)-2(eren)-5(t)-546(r)4(e)-5(gulatory)-543(a)-5(nd)-543(ap)-5(plic)-5(ation)-549(m)-1(odeling)-549(domains.)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 -1.0996 TD [(Ongoing)-384(multi-institutional)-391(efforts)-373(will)-382(then)-385(establish)-384(con-)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(sistent)-482(sta)-8(ndards)-479(across)-482(these)-482(frameworks)-491(\(such)-480(as)-482(those)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(discussed)-294(by)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.3788 0 Td [(USEP)125(A)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 3.191 0 Td [([2008)-8(]\).)-285(Such)-290(advancements)-297(will)-292(send)]TJ -8.5697 -1.0996 Td [(a)-243(clear)-245(message)-249(to)-239(developers:)-249(tools)-246(that)-246(adhere)-247(to)-239(inte)-8(roper)12(-)]TJ T* [(ability)-397(standards)-396(will)-394(have)-393(broader)-394(suppo)-7(rt,)-394(greater)-393(usage,)]TJ T* [(and)-439(more)-442(impact.)-439(In)-442(this)-440(way)62(,)-436(standards)-442(and)-439(frameworks)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(will)-343(enco)-8(urage)-343(enhanced)-345(tool)-342(interopera)-13(bility)-340(and)-343(facil)-10(itate)]TJ 0 -1.0996 TD [(a)-334(much)-338(more)-335(comprehensive)-342(model)-340(evaluation)-340(paradigm.)]TJ 0 Tc 0.7198 -2.2445 Td ([)Tj -0.0001 Tc 6.9738 0 0 6.9738 67.337 343.6298 Tm (56)Tj 0 Tc 10.0026 0 0 10.0026 74.3102 343.6298 Tm (])Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 84.5149 343.6298 Tm [(Acknow)12(ledgments.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.9341 0 Td [(Comments)-255(from)-263(Fran)-259(Rauschenbe)11(rg,)-251(Robert)]TJ -12.3982 -1.0599 Td [(Swank,)-408(and)-413(five)-413(anonymous)-409(reviewers)-405(greatly)-416(improved)-405(the)-415(manuscript.)]TJ 0 -1.0599 TD [(Although)-525(this)-531(work)-528(was)-530(reviewed)-527(by)-522(the)-536(EP)89(A)-534(and)-526(was)-530(approved)-523(for)]TJ 0 -1.067 TD [(publication,)-290(it)-292(may)-292(not)-295(necessarily)-287(reflect)-294(off)13(icial)-301(agency)-284(policy)65(.)-298(Reference)]TJ 0 -1.0599 TD [(herein)-458(to)-454(any)-455(specific)-456(commercial)-458(product)12(,)-461(process,)-455(or)-459(service)-456(by)-458(trade)]TJ T* [(name,)-238(trademark,)-244(manufactu)11(rer)28(,)-241(or)-245(otherwise)-245(does)-241(not)-238(necessarily)-244(constitute)]TJ 0 -1.067 TD [(or)-366(imply)-358(endorsement,)-355(recommenda)9(tion,)-366(or)-359(favoring)-363(by)-359(the)-365(United)-357(States)]TJ 0 -1.0599 TD [(governmen)12(t)-335(or)-330(any)-334(agency)-326(thereof.)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0001 Tc 10.959 0 0 10.959 56.9055 259.3275 Tm [(Refer)13(ences)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 56.9055 246.8551 Tm [(Ahlfeld,)-397(D.)-398(P)104(.,)-403(and)-398(Y)128(.)-397(Hoque)-397(\(2008\),)-393(Impact)-401(of)-402(simulation)-395(model)-397(solver)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(performance)-487(on)-487(ground)-486(water)-491(management)-484(problems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 22.9043 0 Td [(Gr)36(ound)-490(W)89(ater)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.847 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7513 -1.1239 Td (46)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\002\003\004)-335(\005\006\007)-115(\b)-126(\005\t\007\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\006\006\006)12(\020\021\017\006\005\022\002\023\007\002\024\022)13(\017\t\016\016\024\017\016\016\022\002\022\017\025)12(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -1.9917 -1.1239 Td [(Ahuja,)-448(L.)-434(R.,)-442(J.)-439(C.)-436(Ascoug)-12(h,)-438(and)-441(O.)-433(Davi)-10(d)-432(\(20)-8(05\),)-441(Develo)-12(ping)-435(nat)-10(ural)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(resource)-302(models)-297(using)-299(the)-308(object)-297(modeling)-301(system:)-298(Feasibility)-300(and)-306(chal-)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD (lenges,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.1084 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-333(Geosci.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.0361 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5833 0 Td (4)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\004)-335(\t\026)-124(\b)-119(\027\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -10.2216 -1.1239 Td [(Ames,)-321(D.)-327(\(2002\),)-322(Bayesian)-316(decision)-322(networks)-316(for)-329(watershed)-319(manageme)12(nt,)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ph.D.)-327(thesis,)-327(Civ)63(.)-333(and)-334(Environ.)-325(Eng.)-323(Dep.,)-335(Utah)-330(State)-325(Univ)60(.,)-325(Logan.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Arge)13(nt,)-346(R.)-350(M.)-345(\(Ed.\))-350(\(2004\),)-343(Concepts,)-338(methods)-345(and)-342(applications)-346(in)-347(envir)16(-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(onmental)-236(model)-241(integration,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 11.3952 0 Td [(Envir)33(on.)-244(Modell.)-238(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.4279 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td (19)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-243(\t\006\005)-122(\b)-119(\027\027\002\004)]TJ -23.3169 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\006\027\007\022\023\024\006\002\t\001)16(\016\027\003\016\016\006\022\026\023\031\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Aumann,)-330(C.)-336(A.)-341(\(2007\),)-329(A)-335(methodology)-331(for)-336(developing)-331(simulation)-331(models)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(of)-686(co)-9(mp)-11(le)-12(x)-674(sy)-11(st)-14(em)-9(s,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 9.7308 0 Td [(Eco)-10(l.)-689(Mo)-8(de)-9(ll)-15(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.847 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9247 0 Td [(20)-10(2)]TJ /T1_3 1 Tf 1.5151 0 Td [(\004)-676(\027\024)-10(\002)-133(\b)-126(\027\026)-10(\007\004)-688(\n\013\f)-13(\r\006)-13(\016\017)-13(\006\016)-10(\006\007)-10(\020)]TJ -18.0176 -1.1239 Td [(\021\017\032\033\013\034\035\013\n\032)10(\034\017\t\016\016\007\017\006\006\017\016\016\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Bab)-12(en)-9(dr)-10(ei)-12(er)26(,)-561(J.)-567(\(2)-10(003)-8(\),)-566(Cal)-14(ib)-13(ra)-9(tio)-13(n,)-566(Opt)-13(imi)-13(zat)-16(io)-13(n,)-559(an)-9(d)-560(Sen)-12(si)-14(tiv)-13(ity)-568(an)-9(d)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Unc)-10(ert)-10(ain)-10(ty)-560(Algo)-11(rit)-13(hms)-557(App)-11(lic)-12(atio)-10(n)-560(Prog)-11(rammi)-14(ng)-558(Int)-11(erfa)-12(ce)-563(\(COS)-11(U-)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(API\),)-511(in)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.962 0 Td [(Pr)36(oceedings)-509(of)-518(the)-515(Interna)11(tional)-514(W)82(orkshop)-507(on)-515(Uncertain)12(ty)52(,)]TJ -3.962 -1.1239 Td [(Sensitivity)55(,)-532(and)-535(Parameter)-523(Estimation)-529(for)-538(Multimed)9(ia)-532(Envir)33(onmental)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(Modeling,)-362(Rep.)-372(NUREG/CP)12(-0187)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 13.7283 0 Td [(,)-369(edited)-368(by)-373(T)78(.)-376(J.)-368(Nicholson)-366(et)-374(al.,)-365(pp.)]TJ -13.7283 -1.1239 Td [(A1)-119(\226)-126(A54,)-607(Off.)-600(of)-615(Nucl.)-607(Regul.)-607(Res.,)-616(U.)-611(S.)-607(Nucl.)-614(Regul.)-607(Comm.,)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(W)76(ashington,)-441(D.)-448(C.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Babendreie)10(r)30(,)-255(J.)-254(E.,)-255(and)-249(K.)-256(J.)-254(Castleton)-249(\(2005\),)-251(Investigatin)8(g)-261(uncertaint)9(y)-254(and)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(se)-10(nsi)-12(tiv)-13(ity)-447(in)-446(int)-13(eg)-9(ra)-9(ted)-10(,)-440(mu)-11(lti)-15(medi)-15(a)-438(en)-9(vir)-11(on)-10(ment)-15(al)-445(mod)-9(el)-12(s:)-441(T)56(oo)-10(ls)-441(fo)-10(r)]TJ 0.0147 Tc 31.497 85.4999 Td [(FR)5(AM)3(E)7(S)5(-3M)3(R)-2(A)15(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0118 Tc 8.1445 0 Td [(Envir)27(on.)-677(Mode)-6(l)12(l)-10(.)-684(Sof)12(t)-10(w)-5(a)12(r)12(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 11.6015 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.946 0 Td (20)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.0124 Tc [(\001\024\003\004)-678(\006\016\022\027)-121(\b)-128(\006\016\002\002\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -20.6921 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016)9(\022\017\016\026\017\016\006\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Babendreier)33(,)-340(J.,)-346(et)-346(al.)-352(\(2007\),)-336(Managing)-339(multimedia)-344(pollution)-340(for)-343(a)-353(multi-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(media)-332(world,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.6336 0 Td [(Envir)33(on.)-329(Manage.)-326(Mag.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.6383 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (10)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\t\003\004)-333(\007)-126(\b)-119(\006\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -17.8469 -1.1239 Td [(Bakker)30(,)-362(M.)-359(\(2006\),)-357(Analytic)-354(element)-358(modeling)-358(of)-359(embedded)-358(multiaqui)9(fer)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td (domains,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.9407 0 Td [(Gr)36(ound)-333(W)89(ater)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.6905 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (44)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\024\006)-117(\b)-126(\024\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -12.2061 -1.1239 Td [(B)-10(al)-19(ak)-9(r)-12(is)-14(hn)-10(a)-11(n,)-523(S.)-16(,)-511(A.)-526(Roy)44(,)-518(M.)-515(G.)-526(Ie)-16(ra)-16(pe)-9(t)-15(ri)-13(to)-13(u)-12(,)-511(G.)-526(P)97(.)-511(F)-10(la)-12(c)-11(h,)-523(an)-16(d)-510(P)97(.)-518(G.)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Geor)13(gopoulos)-286(\(2005\),)-279(A)-292(comparati)9(ve)-287(assessment)-283(of)-295(eff)14(icient)-285(uncertainty)]TJ T* [(analysis)-224(techniq)11(ues)-222(for)-222(environme)10(ntal)-223(fate)-220(and)-221(transport)-215(models:)-219(Applica-)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(tion)-303(to)-304(the)-301(F)68(ACT)-296(model,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.2216 0 Td [(J.)-302(Hydr)34(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.0118 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6188 0 Td (307)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\001\006)-120(\b)-126(\022\003\004)-363(\t\016\022)-122(\b)-126(\t\006\024\004)-364(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020)]TJ -16.346 -1.1239 Td [(\021\017\021#$\n%\013\034\017\t\016\016\022\017\006)9(\016\017\016\006\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Banta,)-421(E.)-427(R.,)-428(E.)-419(P)104(.)-426(Poeter)35(,)-426(J.)-425(E.)-419(Doherty)67(,)-426(and)-427(M.)-423(C.)-421(Hill)-428(\(Eds.\))-420(\(2006\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(JUP)-10(IT)-13(ER:)-445(Jo)-11(int)-447(Uni)-13(vers)-14(al)-445(Par)-12(amet)-14(er)-443(Id)-10(en)-9(tif)-13(icat)-16(ion)-444(an)-9(d)-439(E)-8(val)-10(ua)-9(tion)-452(of)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(Reliability\227A)9(n)-275(application)-262(programming)-265(interface)-267(\(API\))-268(for)-272(model)-269(ana-)]TJ T* (lysis,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.39 0 Td [(U.S.)-331(Geol.)-329(Surv)72(.)-326(T)82(ech.)-332(Methods)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 12.7112 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td [(TM)-326(6-E1)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.6206 0 Td (.)Tj -0.0001 Tc -20.3009 -1.1239 Td [(Barlund,)-375(I.,)-380(and)-384(S.)-379(T)63(attari)-377(\(2001\),)-379(Ranking)-376(of)-380(paramete)10(rs)-381(on)-380(the)-379(basis)-385(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(their)-549(contribution)-539(to)-546(model)-547(uncertaint)9(y)59(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 17.2351 0 Td [(Ecol.)-543(Modell.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.6478 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7967 0 Td (142)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\004)-548(\006\006)-124(\b)-126(\t\027\004)]TJ -25.1734 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\030\016\027\016\022\023\027\024\016\016\001\016\006)14(\003\016\016\t\022\007\023\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Beck,)-357(M.)-352(B.)-357(\(1987\),)-350(W)76(ater)-355(quality)-355(modeling)12(:)-363(A)-356(review)-347(of)-359(the)-358(analysis)-352(of)]TJ 0.0115 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(un)12(cer)12(t)-1(ai)12(nt)12(y)56(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 5.3989 0 Td [(W)75(at)-13(e)-11(r)-682(R)-8(es)-10(o)-12(ur)95(.)-682(R)-8(e)-11(s.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.4291 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9318 0 Td (23)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.0161 Tc 1.0172 0 Td [(\001)8(\024)16(\003\004)-667(\006)16(\027)6(\026)4(\027)-110(\b)-117(\006)16(\022\022)16(\t)6(\004)-667(\n)6(\013)16(\f)6(\r)16(\006\016)16(\017\006)16(\016\t)16(\026)6(\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -15.7769 -1.1239 Td [(&'\016\t\027\f\016\016\024\(\016)12(\006\027\026\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Beck,)-335(M.)-338(B.)-336(\(Ed.\))-335(\(2002\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.9115 0 Td [(Envir)33(onmental)-332(For)38(esight)-334(and)-335(Models:)-335(A)-335(Mani-)]TJ -9.9157 -1.131 Td (festo)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.8636 0 Td 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11.3028 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0732 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (11)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9247 0 Td [(\004)-335(\t\t\026)-122(\b)-126(\t\002\022\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\016\005\020\)*\016\t\022\t\005\026)13(\006\005\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -13.8066 -1.131 Td [(Bedogni,)-368(M.,)-372(V)128(.)-376(Gabusi,)-369(G.)-369(Finzi,)-375(E.)-370(Minguzzi,)-369(and)-370(G.)-369(Pirovano)-367(\(2005\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Sensitivity)-237(analysis)-238(of)-238(ozone)-237(long)-236(term)-243(simulation)10(s)-241(to)-240(grid)-243(resolutio)11(n,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 27.6701 0 Td (Int.)Tj -0.0001 Tc -27.6701 -1.1239 Td [(J.)-337(Envir)40(on.)-329(Pollut.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.419 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (24)Tj /T1_3 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(\002\006)-124(\b)-126(\007\027\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\002\016\022\020+,-.\017\t\016)11(\016\002\017\016\016\005\027\024\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -9.994 -1.1239 Td 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[(\001\022\003\004)-713(\t\005\005)-120(\b)-127(\t\024\027\004)-706(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -14.8593 -1.1239 Td [(\021\017 \(\034\017\t\016\016\002\017\016\006\017)8(\016\016\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Clark,)-287(J.)-297(S.)-294(\(2005\),)-286(Why)-290(environ)13(mental)-290(scientists)-290(are)-298(becomi)11(ng)-295(Bayesians,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ecol.)-329(Lett.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 4.7516 0 Td (8)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\004)-335(\t)-119(\b)-126(\006\022\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\006\006\006)12(\020\021\017\006\022\007\006\023\016\t\022\024)13(\017\t\016\016\022\017\016\016\005\016\t\017\025)12(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -6.2453 -1.1239 Td [(Clark,)-401(J.)-404(S.,)-399(and)-398(A.)-405(E.)-398(Gelfand)-402(\(2006\),)-400(A)-399(future)-402(for)-400(models)-403(and)-398(data)-405(in)]TJ 0.0466 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(env)6(i)-3(ron)6(m)-1(ental)-715(s)-2(cience,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0464 Tc 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[(\007\026\t\022\017\006\026\024\006\017")14(3\016\006\022\t\002\017\025\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Cozman,)-545(F)75(.)-554(G.)-554(\(2000\),)-542(Credal)-555(networks)11(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 17.9536 0 Td [(Artif.)-548(Intell.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 5.719 0 Td (120)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\004)-555(\006\026\026)-122(\b)-119(\t\027\027\004)]TJ -24.1704 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\016\016\022\023\027\005\016\t\001\016\016)13(\003\016\016\016\t\026\023\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Cukier)34(,)-312(R.)-315(I.,)-309(H.)-313(B.)-315(Levine,)-310(and)-313(K.)-313(E.)-313(Shuler)-307(\(1978\),)-307(Nonlinear)-307(sensitivity)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(analysis)-551(of)-551(multiparamete)6(r)-553(model)-554(systems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.6222 0 Td [(J.)-558(Comput.)-544(Phys.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.3621 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5904 0 Td (26)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td (\001\006\003\004)Tj -27.5705 -1.1239 Td [(\006)-126(\b)-119(\022\t\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\016\016\t\006\023\026\026\026\006\001\005\024\003)16(\026\016\016\026\005\023\026\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Cullen,)-266(A.)-263(C.,)-271(and)-263(H.)-263(C.)-272(Frey)-259(\(1999\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 15.1723 0 Td [(Pr)36(obabilistic)-267(T)90(echniques)-267(in)-262(Exposur)38(e)]TJ -14.1765 -1.1239 Td [(Assessmen)10(t:)-255(A)-250(Handbook)-235(for)-246(Dealing)-248(with)-243(V)99(ariability)-241(and)-250(Uncertain)12(ty)-253(in)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(Models)-330(and)-328(Inputs)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.5399 0 Td [(,)-333(Plenum,)-328(New)-332(Y)99(ork.)]TJ -8.5358 -1.1239 Td [(Deb,)-272(K.,)-276(A.)-277(Pratap,)-270(S.)-272(Agarwal,)-275(and)-270(T)70(.)-276(Meyariva)10(n)-275(\(2002\),)-272(A)-278(fast)-272(and)-270(elitist)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(multiobjectiv)6(e)-303(genetic)-293(algorithm:)-295(NSGA-II,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 17.7615 0 Td [(IEEE)-292(T)54(rans.)-299(Evol.)-294(Comput.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.9969 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -28.7584 -1.1239 Td (6)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\001\t\003\004)-335(\006\024\t)-115(\b)-126(\006\026\005\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\006\016\026)12(\020\022\t\027\002\017\026\026\007\016\006\005\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -1.4938 -1.131 Td [(de)-372(Smith,)-376(M.)-373(J.,)-374(M.)-373(F)75(.)-376(Goodchild,)-371(and)-370(P)104(.)-376(A.)-377(Longley)-367(\(2008\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 25.6571 0 Td (Geospatial)Tj -24.6612 -1.1239 Td [(Analysis:)-411(A)-420(Compr)37(ehensive)-410(Guide)-414(to)-411(Principles,)-416(T)90(echniques)-409(and)-414(Soft-)]TJ T* [(war)36(e)-331(T)82(ools)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 4.403 0 Td [(,)-333(2nd)-328(ed.,)-334(T)35(roubador)38(,)-333(Leicester)35(,)-333(U.)-327(K.)]TJ -5.3989 -1.1239 Td [(Doherty)67(,)-333(J.)-333(\(2003\),)-329(Ground)-332(water)-327(model)-333(calibration)-326(using)-335(pilot)-331(points)-328(and)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(regularization)8(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 6.3378 0 Td [(Gr)29(ound)-625(W)89(ater)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.9893 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.882 0 Td (41)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\t\003\004)-627(\006\005\016)-115(\b)-126(\006\005\005\004)-627(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\006\006\006\020\021\017\006\005\022\002\023)]TJ -14.2049 -1.1239 Td [(\007\002\024\022\017\t\016\016\027\017")14(3\016\t\002\024\016\017\025\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Doherty)67(,)-298(J.)-304(\(2004\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.8529 0 Td [(PEST)55(:)-297(Model-Indep)9(endent)-301(Parameter)-289(Estimation,)-294(User)]TJ -6.8571 -1.131 Td (Manual)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 3.0871 0 Td [(,)-468(5th)-466(ed.,)-470(W)76(atermark)-468(Numer)58(.)-476(Comput)12(.,)-475(Brisbane,)-459(Queensland,)]TJ -3.0871 -1.1239 Td (Australia.)Tj -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Doherty)67(,)-362(J.,)-353(and)-356(B.)-357(E.)-363(Skahill)-353(\(2006\),)-357(An)-354(advanced)-350(regularization)-355(metho-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(dology)-431(for)-442(use)-435(in)-432(watershed)-433(model)-440(calibration)8(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.995 0 Td [(J.)-437(Hydr)34(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.147 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6829 0 Td (327)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.5009 0 Td [(\001\027)-120(\b)-126(\022\003\004)]TJ -26.3257 -1.1239 Td [(\002\007\022)-122(\b)-126(\002\005\005\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\021#$\n%\013\034\017\t\016)9(\016\002\017\006\006\017\016\002\024)13(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Duan,)-362(Q.,)-368(S.)-365(Sorooshian,)-364(and)-363(V)120(.)-369(K.)-362(Gupta)-364(\(1992\),)-364(Effe)13(ctive)-370(and)-370(eff)14(icient)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(global)-305(optimiza)11(tion)-310(for)-300(conceptual)-301(rainfall-runof)15(f)-304(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.4236 0 Td [(W)89(ater)-307(Resour)108(.)]TJ -23.4236 -1.1239 Td (Res.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.6716 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (28)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\022\003\004)-335(\006\016\006\002)-120(\b)-119(\006\016\027\006\004)-327(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026\020)11(\026\006&'\016\t\026\024\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.2465 -1.1239 Td [(Elizondo,)-310(D.,)-312(B.)-322(Cappelae)13(re,)-321(and)-313(C.)-315(Faure)-313(\(2002\),)-307(Automatic)-310(versus)-317(man-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(ual)-415(model)-411(diff)12(erentiation)-411(to)-411(compute)-413(sensitivities)-409(and)-413(solve)-412(non-linear)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(inverse)-649(problems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.0805 0 Td [(Comput.)-644(Geosci.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.042 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9034 0 Td (28)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-648(\027\016\026)-122(\b)-126(\027\t\007\004)-649(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\006\007\020)]TJ -17.0217 -1.1239 Td [(\030\016\016\026\024\023\027\016\016\022\001\016\006)14(\003\016\016\016\022\024\023\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Elsner)35(,)-291(J.)-283(B.,)-285(and)-285(T)70(.)-291(H.)-284(Jagger)-286(\(2004\),)-279(A)-285(hierarchical)-284(Bayesian)-281(approach)-287(to)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(seasonal)-469(hurricane)-472(modeling,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.4836 0 Td [(J.)-473(Clim.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.3289 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7327 0 Td (17)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-477(\t\024\006\027)-120(\b)-119(\t\024\t\005\004)-476(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\006\005\002\020)]TJ -17.541 -1.1239 Td [(\006\002\t\016\023\016\022\022\t\001)13(\t\016\016\022\003\016\006\0055\t\024)13(\006\027\r24\)26)12(\0307\t\017\016\01789:\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Essaid,)-363(H.)-362(I.,)-373(I.)-367(M.)-359(Cozzarelli,)-364(R.)-365(P)104(.)-369(Eganhous)13(e,)-373(W)90(.)-369(N.)-369(Herkelrath)8(,)-369(B.)-365(A.)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Bekins,)-435(and)-434(G.)-433(N.)-441(Delin)-437(\(2003\),)-428(Inverse)-434(modeling)-436(of)-437(BTEX)-431(dissolu-)]TJ 0.0208 Tc 0 -1.1239 TD [(tion)-575(a)3(nd)-575(biodegradation)-567(a)-5(t)-570(t)-1(he)-574(Bemidji,)-568(MN)-570(crude-oil)-570(spill)-570(site,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc T* [(J.)-771(Contam.)-765(Hydr)34(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.6496 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 1.0172 0 Td (67)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006)-127(\b)-119(\022\003\004)-775(\t\007\026)-115(\b)-126(\t\026\026\004)-770(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\006\007\026\023\005\005)13(\t\t)]TJ -10.6626 -1.131 Td (\001\016\027\003\016\016\016\027\022\023\t\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Evers,)-312(S.,)-321(and)-313(D.)-320(N.)-320(Lerner)-309(\(1998\),)-315(How)-319(certain)-315(is)-320(our)-314(estimate)-317(of)-316(a)-317(well-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(head)-609(protection)-611(zone?,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.2643 0 Td [(Gr)36(ound)-611(W)82(ater)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.975 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.8607 0 Td (36)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-613(\022\026)-124(\b)-119(\002\005\004)-615(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\006\006\006\020)]TJ -18.0958 -1.1239 Td [(\021\017\006\005\022\002\023\007\002\024)12(\022\017\006\026\026\024\017"3\016\006\016\007)13(\022\017\025\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Friedman,)-252(J.)-261(H.)-263(\(1991\),)-251(Multivariate)-254(adaptive)-256(regression)-260(splines,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 25.8562 0 Td [(Ann.)-252(Stat.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.898 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7584 -1.1239 Td (19)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\006)-119(\b)-126(\007\005\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\t\006\022)12(\020/\013 \020\006\006\005\007\027\022\005\026)13(\007\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -1.9917 -1.131 Td [(Fu)-8(ntowi)-11(cz,)-448(S.)-436(O.,)-447(an)-9(d)-439(J.)-439(R.)-443(Ravet)-16(z)-438(\(19)-8(90\))-8(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.672 0 Td [(Uncer)-13(tain)-11(ty)-445(and)-442(Qual)-11(ity)-446(in)]TJ -17.6761 -1.1239 Td [(Science)-326(for)-332(Policy)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.2838 0 Td [(,)-333(Kluwer)-329(Acad.,)-325(Dordrecht,)-326(Netherlands.)]TJ -8.2797 -1.1239 Td [(Gaber)38(,)-255(N.,)-248(P)111(.)-248(Pascual,)-246(N.)-249(Stiber)32(,)-248(and)-242(E.)-249(Sunderland)-241(\(2009\),)-243(Guidance)-242(on)-245(the)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(developme)11(nt,)-296(evaluation,)-282(and)-292(application)-283(of)-295(environme)10(ntal)-294(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 27.2149 0 Td (Rep.)Tj -27.2149 -1.1239 Td [(EP)127(A/100/K-09/0)9(03)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.4688 0 Td [(,)-582(U.S.)-578(Environ.)-574(Prot.)-582(Agency)68(,)-582(W)76(ashingto)11(n,)-580(D.)-583(C.)]TJ -7.4688 -1.1239 Td [(\(A)73(vailable)-329(at)-332(www)70(.epa.gov/crem/)11(library/cred_guid)6(ance_0309)14(.pdf\))]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Gallagher)35(,)-262(M.,)-258(and)-263(J.)-261(Doherty)-253(\(2007\),)-258(Parameter)-263(estimatio)9(n)-268(and)-256(uncertainty)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(analysis)-238(for)-236(a)-239(watershed)-234(model,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.6827 0 Td [(Envir)40(on.)-237(Modell.)-238(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.4207 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4908 0 Td (22)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\005\003\004)-236(\006\016\016\016)-120(\b)]TJ -24.5901 -1.1239 Td [(\006\016\t\016\004)-327(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016\007)10(\017\016\007\017\016\016\005\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Gan,)-428(T)78(.)-426(Y)120(.,)-425(and)-427(G.)-426(F)75(.)-426(Biftu)-433(\(1996\),)-421(Automatic)-424(calibration)-418(of)-430(conceptual)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(rainfall-runof)15(f)-439(models:)-425(Optimization)-430(algorithms,)-428(catchment)-431(conditions,)]TJ 0.0255 Tc T* [(and)-698(m)-1(odel)-700(s)-2(tr)-8(ucture,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0266 Tc 10.1789 0 Td [(W)88(ater)-698(R)5(e)-6(s)-1(our)106(.)-698(R)5(es.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.7776 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0264 Tc 0.9745 0 Td (32)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf [(\001\006\t\003\004)-699(\027\002\006\027)-121(\b)-128(\027\002\t\022\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -19.931 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\026\002&'\016\t\006\026)12(\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Gan,)-329(T)78(.)-333(Y)128(.,)-332(E.)-327(M.)-331(Dlamini,)-328(and)-327(G.)-334(F)75(.)-333(Biftu)-327(\(1997\),)-329(Ef)15(fects)-333(of)-330(model)-326(com-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(plexity)-284(and)-277(structure,)-277(data)-284(quality)65(,)-284(and)-277(objective)-278(functions)-279(on)-288(hydrolog)13(ic)]TJ 0.0332 Tc T* (modeling,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0336 Tc 4.9934 0 Td [(J.)-698(Hydr)34(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.7089 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0335 Tc 0.9887 0 Td [(19)7(2)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf [(\001\006)-121(\b)-121(\022\003\004)-699(\024\006)-121(\b)-128(\006)7(\016\027\004)-699(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020\030\016\016\t\t\023)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -10.6911 -1.1239 Td [(\006\007\026\022\001\026\007\003\016\027)13(\006\006\022\023\026\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Geor)13(gopoulos,)-228(P)104(.)-234(G.,)-233(and)-235(P)104(.)-241(J.)-233(Lioy)-232(\(2006\),)-236(From)-232(a)-232(theoretical)-232(framework)-232(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(human)-416(exposure)-410(and)-420(dose)-419(assessment)-411(to)-425(computation)10(al)-417(system)-419(imple-)]TJ T* [(menta)-12(tion:)-445(The)-437(modelin)-11(g)-439(Environm)-11(ent)-436(for)-442(T)63(ota)-10(l)-434(Ri)-10(sk)-438(Studies)-444(\(MEN-)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(TOR\))12(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 2.8808 0 Td [(J.)-330(T)82(oxicol.)-324(Envir)33(on.)-329(Health,)-328(Part)-333(B)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 14.1836 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5762 0 Td (9)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.505 0 Td [(\001\007\003\004)-328(\022\002\005)-122(\b)-119(\022\024\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -19.1414 -1.1239 Td [(Gerber)33(,)-276(N.)-277(\(Ed.\))-271(\(2007\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 9.9086 0 Td [(US)-276(EP)127(A)-271(CREM)-278(W)89(orkshop)-272(on)-273(Integrated)-276(Modeling)]TJ -8.9128 -1.1239 Td 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Tf 0 Tc 7.732 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7469 0 Td (29)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td (\001\024\003\004)Tj -27.5705 -1.1239 Td [(\026\007\005)-122(\b)-126(\026\024\006\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\027\016\007\023\022\002\022\026\001\016\006)13(\003\016\016\016\024\022\023\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Gregersen,)-387(J.)-397(B.,)-385(P)104(.)-397(J.)-389(A.)-391(Gijsbers,)-390(and)-391(S.)-386(J.)-397(P)104(.)-390(W)76(esten)-390(\(2007\),)-386(OpenMI:)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Open)-463(modelling)-465(interface)10(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 11.2388 0 Td [(J.)-465(Hydr)34(oinf.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.9436 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.7184 0 Td (9)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-463(\006\005\002)-122(\b)-119(\006\026\006\004)-464(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\t\006\007\007)12(\020)]TJ -17.3987 -1.1239 Td [(#$\n%\013\017\t\016\016\005\017\016\t)12(\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Griewank,)-401(A.,)-397(D.)-398(Juedes,)-400(and)-398(J.)-404(Utke)-394(\(1996\),)-400(Algorithm)-397(755:)-393(ADOL-C:)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(A)-370(package)-359(for)-371(the)-365(automatic)-363(diff)12(erentiation)-361(of)-366(algorithms)-365(written)-365(in)-368(C/)]TJ 0.0362 Tc 0 -1.131 TD (C++,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.034 Tc 3.0017 0 Td [(T)34(r)11(ans.)-826(M)2(ath)-7(.)-818(So)-7(ftwar)34(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.6768 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0335 Tc 1.1025 0 Td (22)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0333 Tc 1.0741 0 Td [(\001\t)-7(\003\004)-828(\006\027\006)-128(\b)-128(\006\007\005\004)-828(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006)-7(\006\022\002\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -15.8552 -1.1239 Td [(\t\t\026\022\005\027\017\t\t\026\022)12(\005\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Gupt)-11(a,)-437(H.)-441(V)128(.,)-439(S.)-443(Sorooshia)-11(n,)-438(and)-441(P)104(.)-440(O.)-433(Y)92(ap)-9(o)-432(\(19)-8(98\),)-441(T)63(oward)-447(improved)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td 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[(\006\027\002)-122(\b)-126(\006\002\022\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\016\005)12(\020\)*\016\016\002\022\005\006)12(\027\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ha)-12(med,)-448(M.)-437(M.)-10(,)-440(P)104(.)-440(B.)-443(Bed)-12(ien)-10(t,)-440(an)-9(d)-439(C.)-443(N.)-441(Daw)-12(son)-443(\(19)-8(96\))-8(,)-440(Prob)-11(ab)-9(ilis)-14(tic)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(modeling)-329(of)-338(aquifer)-328(heterogeneity)-326(using)-335(reliability)-332(methods,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.6328 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-333(W)82(ater)]TJ -24.6328 -1.1239 Td [(Resour)108(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 2.9519 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (19)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\002\003\004)-335(\t\005\005)-115(\b)-126(\t\026\002\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\016\027\016\026\023\006\005\016\024\001\026)14(\007\003\016\016\016\016\022\023\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -5.5269 -1.1239 Td [(Hanson,)-424(K.)-426(M.)-423(and)-420(F)75(.)-426(M.)-423(Hemez)-424(\(Eds.\))-420(\(2004\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.5712 0 Td [(Pr)36(oceedings)-423(of)-425(the)-422(4th)]TJ -19.5753 -1.131 Td [(International)-226(Confer)33(ence)-231(on)-231(Sensitivity)-230(Analysis)-227(of)-233(Model)-231(Output)-230(\(SAMO)]TJ T* (2004\))Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 2.3189 0 Td [(,)-476(Los)-474(Alamos)-470(Natl.)-474(Lab.,)-470(Santa)-472(Fe,)-475(N.)-476(M.)-473(\(A)73(vailable)-472(at)-474(http://)]TJ -2.3189 -1.1239 Td [(library)60(.lanl.gov)12(/ccw/samo20)9(04/\))]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Helton,)-399(J.)-404(C.,)-392(and)-398(F)75(.)-404(J.)-397(Davis)-400(\(2003\),)-393(Latin)-402(hypercube)-392(sampling)-395(and)-398(the)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(propagation)-287(of)-288(uncertainty)-288(in)-290(analyses)-292(of)-288(complex)-285(systems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.0424 0 Td [(Reliab.)-285(Eng.)]TJ -24.0424 -1.1239 Td [(Syst.)-335(Saf.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.6917 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (81)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td 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-0.0001 Tc 0.9176 0 Td (109)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.5009 0 Td [(\004)-669(8\006\006\016\016\002\004)-667(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026\020)]TJ -18.672 -1.1239 Td [(\t\016\016\t,8\016\016\006\002\026)13(\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Hill,)-285(M.)-281(C.)-286(\(1998\),)-272(Methods)-279(and)-277(guidelines)-278(for)-286(eff)14(ective)-281(model)-283(calibration)8(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(U.S.)-331(Geol.)-329(Surv)72(.)-333(W)89(ater)-329(Resour)108(.)-333(Invest.)-330(Rep.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 17.541 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (98-4005)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.3147 0 Td (\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -22.4348 -1.131 Td [(Hoff)12(man,)-284(F)75(.)-284(O.,)-283(and)-277(J.)-290(S.)-279(Hammond)12(s)-284(\(1994\),)-279(Propagation)-277(of)-281(uncertainty)-281(in)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(risk)-245(assessm)11(ents:)-244(The)-238(need)-232(to)-240(distinguish)-232(between)-237(uncertaint)9(y)-240(due)-235(to)-240(lack)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD 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Tc 7.8671 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.9532 0 Td (1)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0135 Tc 0.5121 0 Td [(\001\007)-6(\003\004)-684(\002)-6(\t)1(\022)-127(\b)-127(\002)1(\022)-6(\t)1(\004)-691(\n)4(\013\f\r)-8(\006\016\017)-8(\006\006)-6(\005\002\020)-9(\006\002\t)-6(\002\023\005)-6(\002)1(\022)-6(\006)1(\001\t)-6(\016\016\016)-6(\003)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -9.3324 -1.1239 Td [(\016\016\0065\016\002\t\022\r2)12(028\030*7\t\017\016)10(\01789:\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Hornber)12(ger)35(,)-369(G.)-362(M.,)-365(and)-363(R.)-365(C.)-365(Spear)-363(\(1981\),)-357(Approach)-362(to)-368(the)-365(prelimin)9(ary)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(analysis)-387(of)-394(environme)10(ntal)-394(systems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.6531 0 Td [(J.)-387(Envir)33(on.)-386(Manage.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.3722 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6473 0 Td (12)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-392(\005)-119(\b)-126(\006\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -25.6642 -1.1239 Td [(Iman,)-432(R.)-429(L.,)-426(and)-427(W)83(.)-433(J.)-425(Conover)-424(\(1982\),)-428(A)-427(distribution-f)7(ree)-433(approach)-422(to)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(in)-13(du)-10(ci)-12(ng)-444(ra)-16(nk)-444(co)-9(rr)-11(el)-12(at)-12(io)-13(n)-439(a)-11(mon)-9(g)-446(in)-13(put)-452(va)-9(ri)-13(ab)-9(le)-12(s,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.9055 0 Td [(Com)-15(m.)-448(St)-13(at.)-453(Si)-13(mul)-13(.)]TJ -20.9055 -1.1239 Td (Comput.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.4001 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0732 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (11)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9247 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-328(\027\006\006)-122(\b)-126(\027\027\022\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\024\016)12(\020\016\027\007\006\016\026\006\024)15(\t\016\024\024\006\t\t\007\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -5.9039 -1.131 Td [(Isukapalli,)-405(S.)-407(S.,)-399(A.)-405(Roy)65(,)-412(and)-398(P)104(.)-404(G.)-405(Geor)13(gopoulos)-400(\(1998\),)-400(Stochastic)-403(re-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(sponse)-345(surface)-340(methods)-337(\(SRSMs\))-336(for)-343(uncertainty)-338(propagation:)-337(Applica-)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(tion)-388(to)-390(environme)10(ntal)-387(and)-391(biological)-379(systems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.1059 0 Td [(Risk)-381(Anal.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.1968 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6402 0 Td (18)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-385(\027\002\006)-122(\b)]TJ -24.9386 -1.1239 Td [(\027\007\027\004)-336(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\006\006\006\020\021\017\006\002\027\026\023\007\026\t)11(\022\017\006\026\026\024\017"3)12(\016\006\027\016\006\017\025\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Jag)-8(er)33(,)-440(H.)-433(I.,)-444(and)-434(A.)-441(W)83(.)-433(King)-438(\(2004\))-10(,)-433(Spatial)-444(uncertain)-12(ty)-432(and)-441(ecological)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td (models,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.4428 0 Td [(Ecosystem)11(s)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.5524 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5762 0 Td (7)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.505 0 Td [(\004)-328(\024\022\006)-122(\b)-126(\024\022\005\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\016\005)12(\020 \006\016\016\t\006\023\016\016\022)14(\023\016\016\t\002\023$\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -10.0722 -1.131 Td [(Jakeman,)-382(A.)-384(J.,)-388(and)-384(G.)-384(M.)-380(Hornber)12(ger)-384(\(1993\),)-379(How)-383(much)-383(complexity)-377(is)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(warranted)-304(in)-297(a)-303(rainfall-runof)15(f)-304(model?,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 15.4213 0 Td [(W)82(ater)-300(Resour)115(.)-305(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.5541 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5548 0 Td (29)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\024\003\004)-300(\t\007\027\005)-120(\b)]TJ -24.5261 -1.1239 Td [(\t\007\022\026\004)-334(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\026\027&'\016\016\024\005)12(\005\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Jakeman,)-304(A.)-298(J.,)-303(and)-299(R.)-308(A.)-298(Letcher)-301(\(2003\),)-300(Integrate)9(d)-304(assessment)-297(and)-306(mod-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(e)-11(lli)-15(ng:)-444(F)-10(eatu)-14(re)-9(s,)-446(pr)-10(in)-13(cip)-10(le)-12(s)-440(an)-9(d)-439(e)-11(xamp)-13(le)-12(s)-440(fo)-10(r)-439(ca)-15(tch)-10(me)-10(nt)-446(ma)-10(na)-9(geme)-12(nt)-13(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0131 Tc T* [(En)-6(vir)28(o)1(n)-6(.)-683(Mo)-6(dell)-8(.)-683(Softwar)28(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 11.6655 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.9461 0 Td (18)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0131 Tc [(\001\007\003\004)-684(\022)-6(\026)1(\006)-127(\b)-127(\002\016\006\004)-684(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)-8(\006\016\006\007)-6(\020\030\006\027)-6(\007\022\023)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -12.6116 -1.1239 Td [(\024\006\002\t\001\016\027\003\016\016\016\t\022\023\016)13(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Jakeman,)-247(A.)-241(J.,)-246(R.)-244(A.)-249(Letcher)40(,)-248(and)-249(J.)-240(P)104(.)-248(Norton)-242(\(2006\),)-243(T)63(en)-244(iterative)-245(steps)-243(in)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(development)-314(and)-327(evaluation)-311(of)-323(environmental)-313(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 22.2357 0 Td [(Envir)40(on.)-322(Modell.)]TJ -22.2357 -1.1239 Td [(Softwar)32(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.4925 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (21)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\002\003\004)-335(\007\016\t)-115(\b)-126(\007\006\022\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016\007)10(\017\016\006\017\016\016\022\017)]TJ /T1_3 1 Tf 8.9663 0 0 8.9663 64.559 753.1793 Tm (W06421)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 13.6069 0 Td [(MA)104(TOTT)-328(ET)-259(AL.:)-333(EV)121(ALUA)102(TING)-332(ENVIRONMENT)66(AL)-335(MODELS)]TJ 12.0325 -80.459 Td [(1)32(1)-328(of)-335(14)]TJ /T1_3 1 Tf 24.672 80.459 Td (W06421)Tj ET endstream endobj 196 0 obj 30958 endobj 197 0 obj << /GS0 198 0 R /GS1 199 0 R >> endobj 198 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /SM 0.02 /OP false /OPM 0 /op false /BG2 115 0 R /UCR2 116 0 R /HT 118 0 R >> endobj 199 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /SA false /OP false /op false /OPM 0 /BG2 /Default /UCR2 /Default /HT /Default >> endobj 202 0 obj << /Length 203 0 R >> stream 0 0 0 1 k 1 i /GS0 gs BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0126 Tc 7.9702 0 0 7.9702 56.9055 731.0691 Tm [(Johnsto)13(n)-5(,)-449(J.)-449(M.,)-442(J)-1(.)-449(H)-2(.)-442(N)-2(ovak,)-449(and)-448(S)3(.)-442(R)-4(.)-449(K)13(r)-7(a)2(e)-6(mer)-448(\(2004\),)-449(M)1(u)13(l)-7(timedia)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(integrated)-318(modeling)-322(for)-322(environme)10(ntal)-323(protection:)-320(Introduction)-317(to)-326(a)-324(col-)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(laborative)-326(framework,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 9.1759 0 Td [(Envir)40(on.)-329(Modell.)-330(Assess.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.937 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (63)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\t\002\027)-122(\b)-119(\t\007\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -21.688 -1.131 Td [(Jolma,)-198(A.,)-205(D.)-199(P)104(.)-205(Ames,)-200(N.)-199(Horning,)-196(H.)-206(Mitasova,)-192(M.)-202(Neteler)31(,)-198(A.)-206(Racicot,)-198(and)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(T)78(.)-298(Sutton)-289(\(2008\),)-293(Free)-287(and)-299(open)-290(source)-286(geospatial)-291(tools)-295(for)-293(environme)10(n-)]TJ T* [(tal)-410(modelling)-401(and)-406(management,)-405(in)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.5321 0 Td [(Envir)33(onmental)-403(Modelling,)-405(Softwar)39(e)]TJ -14.5321 -1.1239 Td [(and)-399(Decision)-389(Support:)-393(State)-399(of)-397(the)-401(Art)-399(and)-392(New)-401(Perspective)10(s)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf [(,)-518(vol.)-515(e,)]TJ T* [(edited)-446(by)-444(A.)-455(J.)-446(Jakeman)-440(et)-453(al.,)-451(pp.)-443(163)-122(\226)-126(180,)-441(Elsevier)38(,)-454(Amsterdam.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ka)-12(ve)-9(ts)-14(ki,)-453(D.)-14(,)-440(S.)-450(W)76(.)-440(F)-10(ra)-9(nk)-10(s,)-446(an)-9(d)-446(G.)-448(Ku)-13(cze)-12(r)-12(a)-438(\()-12(200)-8(2\))-10(,)-447(Con)-13(fr)-18(ont)-11(in)-13(g)-446(inp)-11(ut)]TJ 0.0124 Tc 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(uncer)13(t)-7(a)1(in)13(t)-7(y)-441(in)-441(enviro)13(n)-5(ment)12(a)-6(l)-443(model)12(i)-10(ng)13(,)-454(i)12(n)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 18.3305 0 Td [(C)-10(a)-12(li)-22(b)-12(ra)-18(t)-14(io)-20(n)-453(o)-12(f)-455(W)68(a)-12(te)-19(r)-13(s)-13(he)-16(d)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -18.3305 -1.1239 Td (Models)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 2.9093 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6117 0 Td [(W)82(ater)-364(Sci.)-364(Appl.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.6366 0 Td [(,)-362(vol.)-365(6,)-367(edited)-361(by)-359(Q.)-369(Duan)-356(et)-367(al.,)-365(pp.)-365(49)-124(\226)-119(68,)]TJ -10.1576 -1.1239 Td [(AGU,)-328(W)76(ashington,)-327(D.)-334(C.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Kavetski,)-317(D.,)-319(G.)-327(Kuczera,)-311(and)-320(S.)-322(W)83(.)-326(Franks)-313(\(2006a\),)-319(Bayesian)-316(analysis)-316(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(inp)-11(ut)-439(unce)-11(rta)-10(inty)-445(in)-439(hyd)-8(rol)-11(ogica)-12(l)-441(model)-13(ing:)-445(1.)-438(T)-8(heory)54(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.2528 0 Td [(W)82(ate)-10(r)-440(Reso)-9(ur)102(.)]TJ -23.2528 -1.1239 Td (Res.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.6716 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (42)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(&\016\027\022\016\005\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\t\016\016\002&'\016\016)12(\022\027\007\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.2465 -1.1239 Td [(Kavetski,)-310(D.,)-319(G.)-313(Kuczera,)-311(and)-313(S.)-322(W)90(.)-319(Franks)-313(\(2006b\),)-305(Bayesian)-316(analysis)-309(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(input)-422(uncertainty)-423(in)-425(hydrolog)13(ical)-429(modeling:)-415(2.)-431(Applicatio)10(n,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.8889 0 Td [(W)82(ater)-421(Re-)]TJ -24.8889 -1.1239 Td [(sour)105(.)-333(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.9193 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (42)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(&\016\027\022\016\024\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\t\026\020\t\016\016\002&'\016\016)13(\022\027\005\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -6.4943 -1.1239 Td [(Khadam,)-358(I.)-360(M.,)-358(and)-356(J.)-361(J.)-361(Kaluarachchi)-355(\(2004\),)-357(Use)-359(of)-359(soft)-358(information)-355(to)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(describe)-255(the)-251(relative)-251(uncertainty)-252(of)-252(calibration)-255(data)-255(in)-254(hydrologic)-247(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf T* [(W)82(ater)-329(Resour)108(.)-333(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.6182 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5762 0 Td (40)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.003 0 Td [(\004)-328(&\006\006\002\016\002\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026\020)11(\t\016\016\027&'\016\016\t\026\027)13(\026\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -10.1931 -1.1239 Td [(Konikow)71(,)-298(L.)-291(F)75(.,)-297(and)-292(J.)-290(D.)-298(Bredeho)11(eft)-294(\(1992\),)-293(Ground-)11(water)-299(models)-290(cannot)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(be)-564(validated,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.9324 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-561(W)82(ater)-564(Resour)115(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.1232 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.8109 0 Td (15)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-563(\005\002)-124(\b)-126(\024\027\004)-558(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\016\027\016\026\023)]TJ -15.8623 -1.1239 Td [(\006\005\016\024\001\026\t\003\026\016)13(\016\027\027\023\031\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Kuc)-17(zer)-13(a,)-451(G.,)-454(D.)-448(Kav)-10(et)-12(sk)-11(i,)-447(S.)-450(Fra)-12(nk)-10(s,)-453(an)-9(d)-439(M.)-451(Thy)-11(er)-450(\(2)-10(00)-10(6\))-10(,)-440(T)56(owa)-17(rd)-10(s)-440(a)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Bayesian)-309(total)-309(error)-310(analysis)-309(of)-309(conceptua)13(l)-313(rainfall-runof)15(f)-311(models:)-311(Char)18(-)]TJ T* [(acterising)-497(model)-497(error)-494(using)-499(storm-depe)11(ndent)-496(parameters,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.5474 0 Td [(J.)-501(Hydr)41(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.2039 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7513 -1.1239 Td (331)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\001\006)-127(\b)-119(\t\003\004)-334(\006\007\006)-122(\b)-119(\006\005\005\004)-336(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\006\007\020\021\017\021#$\n%\013\034\017\t)8(\016\016\007\017\016\002\017\016\006)13(\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -2.4896 -1.1239 Td [(Lahlou,)-226(M.,)-230(L.)-234(Shoemaker)37(,)-234(S.)-230(Choundhur)13(y)59(,)-234(R.)-229(Elmer)34(,)-234(A.)-234(Hu,)-232(H.)-234(Manguerr)11(a,)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(and)-349(A.)-355(Parker)-347(\(1998\),)-350(Better)-351(Assessme)10(nt)-354(Science)-352(Integrating)-346(Point)-348(and)]TJ T* [(Nonpoint)-503(Sources\227B)11(ASINS,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.6685 0 Td [(Rep.)-507(EP)127(A-823-B-9)12(8-006)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 9.8588 0 Td [(,)-511(U.S.)-507(Environ.)]TJ -22.5273 -1.1239 Td [(Prot.)-333(Agency)68(,)-326(W)69(ashingto)11(n,)-331(D.)-334(C.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Leavesley)73(,)-326(G.)-327(H.,)-326(S.)-322(L.)-327(Markstrom,)-318(M.)-323(S.)-322(Brewer)35(,)-326(and)-320(R.)-329(J.)-325(V)56(iger)-328(\(1996\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(The)-309(modular)-315(modeling)-308(system)-305(\(MMS\)\227The)-305(physical)-308(process)-314(modeling)]TJ T* [(component)-274(of)-274(a)-281(database-cente)8(red)-278(decision)-279(support)-274(system)-276(for)-279(water)-278(and)]TJ 0.0124 Tc 0 -1.131 TD [(powe)-6(r)-683(mana)-6(geme)-6(nt,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0135 Tc 9.368 0 Td [(W)82(a)1(ter)-683(A)-1(ir)-683(Soil)-684(P)-1(ollut.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.1007 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.946 0 Td (90)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0116 Tc [(\001\006)-129(\b)-129(\t\003\004)-686(\027\016)-8(\027)-121(\b)-129(\027\006\006)-8(\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -20.4147 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\016\005)12(\020\)*\016\016\007\006\026\t)12(\026\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Levenber)16(g,)-410(K.)-405(\(1944\),)-407(A)-406(method)-409(for)-407(the)-408(solution)-412(of)-409(certain)-407(problems)-400(in)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(least)-328(squares,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.6763 0 Td [(Q.)-327(Appl.)-330(Math.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.0817 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5833 0 Td (2)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\004)-335(\006\007\022)-122(\b)-126(\006\007\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -13.835 -1.1239 Td [(Li,)-398(H.,)-404(and)-398(J.)-397(W)26(u)-396(\(2006\),)-400(Uncertainty)-390(analysis)-402(in)-404(ecologi)11(cal)-407(studies:)-398(An)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(overview)70(,)-518(in)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 5.6692 0 Td [(Scaling)-516(and)-513(Uncertainty)-512(Analysis)-512(in)-525(Ecology)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 19.0703 0 Td [(,)-305(edited)-296(by)]TJ -24.7395 -1.131 Td [(J.)-333(W)34(u)-332(et)-332(al.,)-330(pp.)-329(43)-124(\226)-126(46,)-329(Springer)38(,)-333(Dordrecht,)-326(Netherlands)9(.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Lin,)-382(J.)-389(\(2008\),)-386(qtcm)-385(0.1.2:)-384(A)-385(Python)-386(impleme)11(ntation)-390(of)-387(the)-387(Neelin-Ze)11(ng)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(quasi-equilibrium)-440(tropical)-437(circulation)-433(model,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.7147 0 Td [(Geosci.)-432(Model)-431(Dev)70(.)-433(Dis-)]TJ -18.7147 -1.1239 Td (cuss.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.5323 0 Td (1)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.505 0 Td [(\004)-328(\027\006\002)-122(\b)-126(\027\022\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.0331 -1.1239 Td [(Lindenschmid)10(t,)-376(K.-E.,)-373(K.)-377(Fleischbe)10(in,)-381(and)-370(M.)-380(Baborowsk)10(i)-377(\(2007\),)-371(Struc-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(tural)-243(uncertaint)9(y)-247(in)-240(a)-246(river)-241(water)-242(quality)-241(modelling)-237(system,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.4093 0 Td [(Ecol.)-244(Modell.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.3491 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7584 -1.1239 Td (204)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\004)-335(\t\024\026)-122(\b)-126(\027\016\016\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\033\013\034\035\013)9(\n\032\034\017\t\016\016\005\017\016\006)11(\017\016\016\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -2.4896 -1.131 Td [(Linkov)71(,)-276(I.,)-281(and)-277(D.)-277(Burmistrov)-269(\(2003\),)-272(Model)-275(uncertaint)9(y)-282(and)-270(choices)-278(made)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(by)-458(m)-12(od)-10(e)-11(le)-19(r)-12(s:)-462(L)-8(e)-11(ss)-13(o)-12(ns)-460(le)-19(a)-11(rn)-17(ed)-457(f)-12(ro)-17(m)-446(t)-15(he)-457(I)-12(nt)-20(er)-16(na)-16(ti)-22(on)-17(al)-460(At)-15(o)-12(mi)-20(c)-445(E)-15(ne)-16(rgy)]TJ 0.0175 Tc 0 -1.1239 TD [(Ag)5(en)5(c)6(y)-685(m)5(o)5(d)5(e)-1(l)-680(i)3(n)5(t)3(er)5(co)5(m)5(p)5(ar)5(iso)5(n)5(s)4(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0137 Tc 15.0727 0 Td [(Risk)-687(Anal.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.6378 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.946 0 Td (23)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.013 Tc [(\001\007\003\004)-684(\006\t)-6(\026\005)-127(\b)-127(\006\027\016\024)-6(\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -20.6565 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\006\006\006)12(\020\021\017\016\t\005\t\023\022\027\027\t)13(\017\t\016\016\027\017\016\016\022\016\t\017\025)12(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ljung,)-499(L.)-498(\(1999\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.8671 0 Td [(System)-504(Identificatio)7(n:)-501(Theory)-497(for)-503(the)-500(User)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 17.9464 0 Td [(,)-504(2nd)-499(ed.,)]TJ -24.8177 -1.1239 Td [(Prentice)-332(Hall,)-324(Englewood)-323(Cliffs,)-325(N.)-334(J.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Manache,)-322(G.,)-326(and)-327(C.)-329(S.)-329(Melching)-327(\(2008\),)-322(Identification)-322(of)-330(reliable)-330(regres-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(sion-)-349(and)-342(correlation-b)7(ased)-347(sensitivity)-347(measures)-339(for)-350(importance)-345(ranking)]TJ T* [(of)-473(water)14(-quality)-467(model)-461(parameters,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.9731 0 Td [(Envir)40(on.)-472(Modell.)-465(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.8831 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7184 0 Td (23)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td (\001\002\003\004)Tj -27.5705 -1.1239 Td [(\002\022\026)-122(\b)-126(\002\007\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Marin,)-388(C.)-393(M.,)-394(V)128(.)-397(Guvanasen,)-387(and)-391(Z.)-391(A.)-391(Saleem)-391(\(2003\),)-393(The)-387(3MRA)-390(risk)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(assessment)-454(framework\227A)-456(flexible)-459(approach)-458(for)-457(performing)-459(multime-)]TJ T* [(di)-13(a,)-565(mul)-11(tip)-13(at)-12(hwa)-10(y)52(,)-554(an)-9(d)-560(mu)-11(lti)-15(re)-9(cep)-13(to)-13(r)-560(ri)-13(sk)-559(as)-10(se)-10(ss)-13(ment)-15(s)-561(un)-10(der)-569(unce)-11(r-)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(tainty)63(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 3.2009 0 Td [(Hum.)-766(Ecol.)-763(Risk)-773(Assess.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 11.068 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 1.0172 0 Td (9)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\001\005\003\004)-769(\006\007\002\002)-120(\b)-126(\006\007\005\005\004)-768(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\024\016\020)]TJ -15.784 -1.1239 Td (\005\006\022\016\022\022\005\026\016\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Marquardt,)-408(D.)-412(\(1963\),)-407(An)-411(algorith)10(m)-418(for)-407(least-squares)-412(estimatio)9(n)-411(of)-416(non-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(linear)-517(paramete)10(rs,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 7.8244 0 Td [(SIAM)-519(J.)-515(Appl.)-508(Math.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.9412 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0732 Tc 0.7611 0 Td (11)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9247 0 Td [(\004)-520(\022\027\006)-122(\b)-126(\022\022\006\004)-514(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\006\027\005\020)]TJ -18.4515 -1.1239 Td (\016\006\006\006\016\027\016\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Matott,)-234(L.)-242(S.)-237(\(2005\),)-236(Ostrich:)-236(An)-240(optimiza)11(tion)-239(software)-237(tool,)-238(documenta)11(tion)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(and)-356(user)-35(\222)59(s)-362(guide,)-360(version)-359(1.6,)-357(Dep.)-357(of)-359(Civ)63(.,)-361(Struct.,)-358(and)-356(Environ.)-360(Eng.,)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD [(Univ)67(.)-497(at)-502(Buf)15(falo,)-498(State)-495(Univ)67(.)-497(of)-501(N.)-497(Y)128(.,)-496(Buffa)13(lo.)-502(\(A)80(vailable)-500(at)-495(www)70(.)]TJ T* [(groundwater)61(.buf)14(falo.edu\))]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Matott,)-355(L.)-355(S.,)-357(and)-356(A.)-355(J.)-361(Rabideau)-351(\(2008\),)-357(Calibratio)8(n)-361(of)-352(subsurface)-357(batch)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(and)-434(reactive-transport)-447(models)-439(involving)-437(complex)-442(biogeochemical)-437(pro-)]TJ T* (cesses,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 3.0871 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-376(W)82(ater)-379(Resour)115(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.7462 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.626 0 Td (31)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.003 0 Td [(\001\t\003\004)-371(\t\007\026)-122(\b)-126(\t\024\007\004)-371(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017/\n\037;/"%\032 \017)]TJ -12.4622 -1.1239 Td (\t\016\016\005\017\016\024\017\016\016\002\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Matthies,)-280(M.,)-287(C.)-279(Giupponi,)-282(and)-285(B.)-279(Ostendorf)-286(\(Eds.\))-278(\(2007\),)-286(Environme)13(ntal)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(decision)-329(support)-324(systems,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.6412 0 Td [(Envir)40(on.)-329(Modell.)-330(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.6057 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (22)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\t\003\004)-328(\006\t\027)-122(\b)-126(\t\005\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.6751 84.376 Td [(M)-11(cE)-12(ne)-16(ry)47(,)-447(J.)-12(,)-454(J.)-453(In)-17(gr)-10(a)-11(m,)-453(Q.)-455(Du)-20(an)-9(,)-454(T)70(.)-447(Ad)-20(am)-9(s)-13(,)-447(an)-16(d)-446(L)-8(.)-447(An)-13(de)-16(rs)-12(o)-12(n)-446(\(2)-17(00)-10(5\))-17(,)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(NOAA)90(\222)52(s)-440(advan)-9(ced)-440(hyd)-8(rolog)-14(ic)-438(pred)-12(icti)-12(on)-437(servi)-14(ce,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.7917 0 Td [(Bull)-14(.)-433(A)-8(m.)-441(Meteor)19(ol.)]TJ -20.7917 -1.1239 Td (Soc.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.6858 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (86)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-328(\027\005\002)-122(\b)-126(\027\024\002\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\006\005\002)12(\020\)20\030\023\024\007)12(\023\027\023\027\005\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.2608 -1.131 Td [(McGarity)68(,)-269(T)78(.,)-261(and)-263(W)83(.)-262(W)76(agner)-258(\(2003\),)-258(Legal)-263(aspects)-258(of)-266(the)-258(regulatory)-260(use)-264(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(environmental)-327(modeling,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 10.3567 0 Td [(Envir)33(on.)-329(Law)-331(Rep.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.5755 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (33)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(\006\016\004\005\002\006)-118(\b)-126(\006\016\004\005\005\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -20.5072 -1.1239 Td [(McKay)67(,)-255(M.)-259(D.,)-255(R.)-251(J.)-254(Beckman,)-250(and)-256(W)90(.)-262(J.)-254(Conover)-246(\(1979\),)-251(A)-257(comparison)-252(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(three)-375(methods)-373(for)-371(selecting)-371(values)-374(of)-373(input)-372(variables)-376(in)-375(the)-372(analysis)-373(of)]TJ 0.0193 Tc T* [(output)-685(f)-7(rom)-683(a)-689(c)1(omputer)-690(code,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0208 Tc 14.6602 0 Td [(T)89(e)3(chn)9(o)2(metrics)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0193 Tc 6.9496 0 Td (21)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0189 Tc [(\001\t\003\004)-693(\t\027\026)-121(\b)-128(\t\022\002\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -21.6097 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\t\027\016\005\020)11(\006\t\007\024\002\t\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Mertens,)-270(J.,)-267(H.)-270(Madsen,)-263(L.)-270(Feyen,)-262(D.)-270(Jacques,)-269(and)-263(J.)-268(Feyen)-270(\(2004\),)-265(Includ-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(ing)-437(prior)-427(information)-433(in)-432(the)-436(estimation)-430(of)-430(effective)-424(soil)-432(parameters)-435(in)]TJ 0.0617 Tc T* [(unsaturate)-6(d)-726(zone)-725(modelling,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0621 Tc 14.4254 0 Td [(J.)-726(Hydr)35(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.0005 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0619 Tc 1.0385 0 Td (294)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0605 Tc [(\001\022\003\004)-736(\t)6(\002)-1(\006)-129(\b)-122(\t\007\026\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -20.4645 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\021\017\021#$\n%\013\034\017\t\016\016\022\017\016)9(\t\017\016\006\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Montanari,)-275(A.)-277(\(2007\),)-272(What)-282(do)-273(we)-282(mean)-275(by)-273(\221)73(\221uncertainty\222)78(\222?)-280(The)-273(need)-282(for)-279(a)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(consistent)-528(wording)-532(about)-532(uncertaint)9(y)-531(in)-539(hydrolog)13(y)59(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 22.1361 0 Td [(HPT)88(oday)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.6562 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7824 0 Td (21)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td (\001\007\003\004)Tj -27.5705 -1.1239 Td [(\024\022\006)-122(\b)-126(\024\022\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Mor)14(gan,)-326(M.)-316(G.,)-326(and)-320(M.)-323(Henrion)-317(\(1990\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 16.6874 0 Td [(Uncertainty:)-318(A)-321(Guide)-321(to)-326(Dealing)]TJ -15.6916 -1.1239 Td [(with)-400(Uncertainty)-391(in)-397(Quantitativ)9(e)-402(Risk)-396(and)-392(Policy)-399(Analysis)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 23.9641 0 Td [(,)-397(Cambridge)]TJ -23.9641 -1.1239 Td [(Univ)60(.)-326(Press,)-330(New)-332(Y)92(ork.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Morris,)-289(M.)-295(D.)-291(\(2006\),)-286(Input)-291(screening)10(:)-292(Finding)-287(the)-294(important)-287(model)-290(inputs)]TJ 0.0195 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(o)-7(n)-690(a)-689(b)-7(udg)-7(et,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0197 Tc 6.6863 0 Td [(Re)-6(lia)-7(b.)-691(Eng)-7(.)-691(Sy)-6(st.)-691(S)-7(af.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.5488 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0193 Tc 0.9674 0 Td (91)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.1473 Tc [(\001)125(\006)128(\016\b\006)128(\006)121(\003)125(\004)-564(\006)128(\t)128(\002)121(\t\b)7(\006)121(\t)128(\002)128(\007)121(\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -18.2025 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\021\017%\032 \017\t\016\016\002\017\006\006)9(\017\016\t\t\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Mugun)-11(tha)-10(n,)-438(P)104(.,)-439(an)-9(d)-432(C.)-443(A.)-441(Shoe)-10(maker)-444(\(20)-8(06\))-8(,)-433(Asse)-10(ssi)-13(ng)-437(the)-443(impac)-12(ts)-441(of)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(parameter)-337(uncertainty)-331(for)-343(computation)10(ally)-337(expensive)-331(groundwater)-330(mod-)]TJ T* (els,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 1.6787 0 Td [(W)89(ater)-336(Resour)115(.)-333(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.6111 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (42)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(&\006\016\022\t\024\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\t\016\016\002&'\016\016)12(\022\007\022\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -11.8647 -1.1239 Td [(M)-11(u)-12(le)-19(ta)-19(,)-454(M)-11(.)-454(K.)-21(,)-454(a)-11(nd)-458(J)-13(.)-454(W)76(.)-454(Ni)-22(c)-11(kl)-20(o)-12(w)-449(\()-12(2)-12(00)-17(5)-12(\),)-460(S)-10(e)-11(n)-12(si)-21(ti)-22(vi)-20(ty)-461(a)-11(n)-12(d)-453(un)-17(c)-11(e)-11(r)-12(ta)-19(in)-20(t)-15(y)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(analysis)-380(coupled)-370(with)-383(automat)11(ic)-381(calibration)-376(for)-378(a)-381(distributed)-379(watersh)10(ed)]TJ 0.0273 Tc T* [(mode)-5(l,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0307 Tc 3.585 0 Td [(J.)-687(Hy)5(d)4(r)31(o)5(l)2(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.6591 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0335 Tc 0.9674 0 Td [(30)7(6)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0267 Tc 1.5862 0 Td [(\001\006)-128(\b)-128(\022\003\004)-699(\006\t\005)-121(\b)-128(\006\022\002\004)-699(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020\021\017\021#$\n%\013\034\017)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -10.7977 -1.1239 Td (\t\016\016\022\017\016\026\017\016\016\002\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Na)-19(sh)-11(,)-454(J.)-453(E)-8(.,)-460(an)-16(d)-446(J.)-461(V)120(.)-447(S)-10(ut)-13(c)-11(li)-15(ff)-11(e)-445(\()-12(19)-10(7)-12(0\))-10(,)-454(Ri)-10(v)-12(er)-457(fl)-13(o)-12(w)-449(fo)-17(re)-16(ca)-15(st)-14(in)-13(g)-453(th)-13(r)-12(ou)-10(g)-12(h)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(conceptual)-635(models)-631(part)-634(1\227A)-628(discussion)-627(of)-636(principles,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.4123 0 Td [(J.)-636(Hydr)34(ol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.3461 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7584 -1.1239 Td (10)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.003 0 Td [(\001\027\003\004)-328(\t\024\t)-122(\b)-119(\t\026\016\004)-336(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\006\007\020\016\016\t\t\023\006\007\026\022)14(\001\005\016\003\026\016\t\002\002\023\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -1.9988 -1.1239 Td [(Nauta,)-234(M.)-238(J.)-233(\(2000\),)-229(Separation)-236(of)-231(uncertainty)-231(and)-235(variability)-230(in)-240(quantitative)]TJ 0.9958 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[(Portielje,)-420(R.,)-428(T)78(.)-426(Hvitved-Jac)9(obsen,)-423(and)-420(K.)-426(Schaarup-Jense)11(n)-425(\(2000\),)-421(Risk)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(a)-11(na)-16(ly)-20(si)-14(s)-454(u)-12(si)-14(n)-12(g)-453(st)-14(o)-12(ch)-16(a)-11(st)-14(i)-15(c)-452(re)-16(li)-22(ab)-16(il)-15(i)-15(ty)-461(me)-17(th)-20(od)-17(s)-447(a)-11(p)-12(pl)-13(i)-15(ed)-457(to)-461(t)-15(wo)-454(c)-11(a)-11(se)-17(s)-454(of)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(de)-16(te)-12(r)-12(mi)-13(ni)-13(st)-14(ic)-694(wa)-12(te)-12(r)-688(qu)-10(al)-12(i)-15(ty)-688(mo)-11(de)-16(ls)-14(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0751 Tc 16.1113 0 Td [(Wa)-75(t)-88(e)-75(r)-761(R)-83(e)-75(s)-92(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.7445 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9318 0 Td (34)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.1331 Tc 1.0101 0 Td [(\001)125(\006)133(\003)120(\004)-550(\006)133(\002)123(\027\b\006)133(\005)123(\016)133(\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -22.7976 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\016\022\027\023\006\027\002\022\001\026\026)13(\003\016\016\006\027\006\023\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Rabitz,)-386(H.,)-390(and)-384(O)]TJ 0 Tc 6.8428 0.2205 Td (\250)Tj 0.5193 -0.2205 Td [(.)-383(Alis)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 1.9205 0 Td [(\270)-425(\(1999\),)-379(General)-386(foundations)-381(of)-387(high-dimens)10(ional)]TJ 0.0482 Tc -8.2868 -1.1239 Td [(mo)-7(del)-720(r)-7(epr)-7(e)2(se)-6(nta)-6(tions)-8(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0466 Tc 11.189 0 Td [(J.)-721(M)-6(a)-1(th.)-721(C)-6(he)-7(m.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.6324 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0477 Tc 1.0172 0 Td (25)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0487 Tc [(\001\t)-127(\b)-127(\027)1(\003\004)-720(\006\026\005)-127(\b)-127(\t\027\027\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -19.8386 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\027)12(\0202\r\006\016\006\026\006\024\024\002\006\005)13(\026\027\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Raghavan,)-340(V)128(.)-355(\(2003\),)-343(A)-349(comparison)-345(between)-343(gradient-base)10(d)-354(and)-349(heuristic)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(algorithms)-365(for)-371(inverse)-372(modeling)-365(of)-373(two-dime)9(nsional)-368(groundwater)-365(flow)60(,)]TJ 0 -1.131 TD [(M.S.)-332(thesis,)-327(Univ)67(.)-333(at)-332(Buf)15(falo,)-334(State)-332(Univ)67(.)-333(of)-330(N.)-334(Y)128(.,)-332(Buf)15(falo.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Rankinen,)-230(K.,)-240(T)78(.)-241(Karvonen,)-233(and)-235(D.)-234(Butterfield)-232(\(2006\),)-236(An)-233(application)-233(of)-238(the)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(GLUE)-237(methodo)12(logy)-243(for)-236(estimating)-238(the)-237(paramete)10(rs)-246(of)-238(the)-237(INCA-N)-235(model,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 -1.1239 TD [(Sc)-16(i.)-689(T)75(ot)-13(a)-12(l)-683(En)-13(vi)-12(r)22(on)-17(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.3579 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9318 0 Td [(36)-17(5)]TJ /T1_2 1 Tf 0.01 Tc -0.0101 Tw 1.5222 0 Td [(\001\006)-123(\b)-116(\027)-2(\003\004)-673(\006)10(\t\027)-123(\b)-123(\006)10(\027\026\004)-673(\n)10(\013\f)10(\r)-5(\006)10(\016\017)-4(\006)10(\016\006)10(\007)-7(\020\021)10(\017)-5( \033\f)-4("\013)10("\032)10(\036)-4(\037)10(\017)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 Tw -10.812 -1.1239 Td (\t\016\016\007\017\016\t\017\016\027\022\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Refsgaard,)-347(J.)-354(C.,)-349(and)-349(H.)-355(J.)-347(Henriksen)-349(\(2004\),)-350(Modellin)11(g)-354(guidelines\227)11(T)63(er-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(minology)-480(and)-491(guiding)-482(principles,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.3614 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-490(W)82(ater)-485(Resour)108(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.9738 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7327 0 Td (27)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.003 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-485(\005\006)-124(\b)-119(\024\t\004)]TJ -24.0708 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017/\n\037;/"%\032)10( \017\t\016\016\027\017\016\024\017\016\016\007)11(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Refsgaard,)-283(J.)-283(C.,)-285(H.)-277(J.)-290(Henriksen,)-277(B.)-286(Harrar)40(,)-291(H.)-284(Scholten,)-275(and)-285(A.)-284(Kassahun)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(\(2005\),)-364(Quality)-364(assurance)-357(in)-368(model)-369(based)-359(water)-370(manageme)12(nt\227Review)]TJ T* [(of)-444(exi)-10(sti)-14(ng)-437(pr)-10(actic)-13(e)-445(and)-441(out)-11(lin)-13(e)-438(of)-444(new)-444(ap)-9(pro)-8(ache)-10(s,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 22.0578 0 Td [(E)-8(nvi)-10(r)29(on.)-443(Mo)-8(del)-10(l.)]TJ -22.0578 -1.1239 Td [(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.4925 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (20)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\016\003\004)-326(\006\t\016\006)-120(\b)-126(\006\t\006\002\004)-327(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016\022)10(\017\016\005\017\016\016\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -6.0675 -1.1239 Td [(Refsgaard,)-240(J.)-254(C.,)-243(J.)-254(P)104(.)-248(van)-242(der)-249(Sluijs,)-249(A.)-249(L.)-249(Hojber)15(g,)-246(and)-249(P)104(.)-248(A.)-249(V)106(anrolleghem)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(\(2007\),)-350(Uncertainty)-347(in)-361(the)-351(environmental)-348(modelling)-351(process\227A)-346(frame-)]TJ T* [(work)-507(and)-512(guidance,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 8.8274 0 Td [(Envir)33(on.)-507(Modell.)-508(Softwar)39(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.9685 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.7611 0 Td (22)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\006\003\004)-511(\006\002\022\027)-120(\b)-119(\006\002\002\007\004)]TJ -21.5528 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016\005)10(\017\016\t\017\016\016\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Regan,)-262(H.)-270(M.,)-266(H.)-263(R.)-265(Akcakaya,)-259(S.)-265(Ferson,)-263(K.)-270(V)128(.)-269(Root,)-261(S.)-265(Carroll,)-264(and)-270(L.)-263(R.)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Ginzbur)17(g)-304(\(2003\),)-300(T)35(reatments)-305(of)-302(uncertainty)-302(and)-299(variability)-301(in)-304(ecological)]TJ T* [(risk)-366(assessment)-354(of)-366(single-species)-356(populations,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 18.8996 0 Td [(Hum.)-361(Ecol.)-365(Risk)-360(Assess.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.8588 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -28.7584 -1.131 Td (9)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\001\022\003\004)-335(\024\024\026)-115(\b)-126(\026\016\007\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\024\016)12(\020\005\006\027\007\006\016\016\006\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -1.4938 -1.1239 Td [(Reichert,)-295(P)104(.)-305(\(2006\),)-293(A)-306(standard)-291(interface)-303(between)-294(simulation)-296(programs)-298(and)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(sy)-18(st)-14(e)-11(ms)-695(an)-16(al)-19(ys)-11(i)-15(s)-682(so)-18(ft)-13(wa)-19(r)-12(e,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.1919 0 Td [(W)75(at)-13(e)-11(r)-682(S)-12(ci)-12(.)-689(T)75(ec)-15(hn)-17(ol)-13(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.6425 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.9318 0 Td (53)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 1.0172 0 Td [(\001)-8(\006\003)-14(\004)-690(\t\007)-10(\005)-133(\b)-133(\t)-12(\005\002)-10(\004)]TJ -22.7834 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\t\006\007\007)12(\020; "\017\t\016\016\007\017\016\t\026)11(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Rotmans,)-320(J.,)-332(and)-327(M.)-323(van)-327(Asselt)-331(\(2001a)13(\),)-331(Uncertainty)-326(manageme)12(nt)-333(in)-326(inte-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(grated)-437(assessment)-440(modeling:)-437(T)63(owards)-439(a)-431(pluralist)-13(ic)-431(approach,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 25.5859 0 Td [(Envir)26(on.)]TJ -25.5859 -1.131 Td [(Monit.)-326(Assess.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 5.7688 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (69)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\t\003\004)-328(\006\016\006)-122(\b)-126(\006\027\016\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\027)12(\0202\r\006\016\006\016\005\t)12(\t\006\t\016\005\t\026\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -8.3437 -1.1239 Td [(Rotmans,)-334(J.,)-339(and)-341(M.)-338(van)-334(Asselt)-338(\(2001b\),)-334(Uncertainty)-333(in)-340(integrated)-340(assess-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(ment)-662(modelling:)-657(A)-662(labrynthic)-661(path,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 16.2464 0 Td [(Integr)109(.)-668(Assess.)-662(J.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.3977 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.9105 0 Td (2)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.505 0 Td [(\004)-662(\022\027)-124(\b)-119(\002\002\004)]TJ -25.0596 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\027)12(\0202\r\006\016\006\006\002\024\024\024\006\007)13(\022\007\026\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Sadoddin,)-288(A.,)-297(R.)-301(A.)-298(Letcher)40(,)-298(A.)-298(J.)-297(Jakeman,)-296(and)-292(L.)-298(T)78(.)-305(H.)-291(Newham)-297(\(2005\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(A)-342(Bayesian)-331(decision)-336(network)-339(approach)-330(for)-343(assessing)-336(the)-337(ecologica)10(l)-342(im-)]TJ T* [(pacts)-440(of)-444(salinity)-442(management,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.8179 0 Td [(Math.)-440(Comput.)-438(Simul.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 9.1262 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6971 0 Td (69)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006)-120(\b)-126(\t\003\004)-441(\006\007\t)-122(\b)]TJ -23.6369 -1.131 Td [(\006\005\007\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\035/"\033\013\035\017\t)8(\016\016\002\017\016\t\017\016\t\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Saltelli,)-417(A.,)-418(K.)-412(Chan,)-414(and)-413(E.)-419(M.)-416(Scott)-418(\(2000\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 19.6465 0 Td [(Sensitivity)-415(Analysis)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 7.8031 0 Td [(,)-419(John)]TJ -26.4537 -1.1239 Td [(W)34(iley)61(,)-333(Chicheste)10(r)30(,)-333(U.)-334(K.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Saltelli,)-325(A.,)-326(S.)-322(T)63(arantola,)-319(F)75(.)-326(Campolongo,)-320(and)-320(M.)-323(Ratto)-326(\(2004\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0 Tc 25.9629 0 Td [(Sensitiv)10(ity)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -24.9671 -1.1239 Td [(Analysis)-227(in)-233(Practice:)-230(A)-235(Guide)-229(to)-233(Assessing)-225(Scientific)-231(Models)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 23.8432 0 Td [(,)-234(John)-228(W)34(iley)61(,)]TJ -23.8432 -1.1239 Td [(New)-332(Y)99(ork.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Sandu,)-356(A.,)-354(D.)-355(N.)-355(Daescu,)-358(G.)-355(R.)-357(Carmicha)11(el,)-359(and)-356(T)70(.)-355(Chai)-354(\(2005\),)-357(Adjoint)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(sensitivity)-475(analysis)-480(of)-480(regional)-478(air)-486(quality)-476(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 21.5386 0 Td [(J.)-480(Comput.)-473(Phys.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.2198 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -28.7584 -1.1239 Td (204)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.4938 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\t\t\t)-122(\b)-119(\t\002\t\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\021\017\021\033\(\017\t\016\016\022\017\006\016)10(\017\016\006\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0.0119 Tc -2.4896 -1.1239 Td [(Schu)12(l)-8(t)12(z)-7(,)-442(C.)-442(\(20)12(0)-5(8\),)-442(R)2(es)12(p)-6(o)12(n)-5(di)12(n)-8(g)-441(t)-3(o)-441(s)12(c)-5(i)-3(en)12(t)-8(i)12(f)-8(i)-3(c)-440(un)12(c)-4(ert)12(a)-7(in)12(t)-8(y)-441(in)-441(U)12(.)-9(S.)-442(fo)12(r)-5(e)1(st)]TJ 0.0124 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(pol)-9(icy)64(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0131 Tc 3.4428 0 Td [(Env)-5(i)-1(r)28(on.)-683(Sc)-5(i.)-683(Policy)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.9483 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.059 Tc 0.946 0 Td (11)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0131 Tc 0.0002 Tw 0.9532 0 Td [(\004)-684(\t\002\027)-127(\b)-127(\t\005\006\004)-684(\n\013\f\r)-8(\006\016\017\006\016\006)-6(\007\020\021\017\032\036\037 \033\f\017)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 Tw -14.2903 -1.1239 Td (\t\016\016\005\017\016\026\017\016\016\t\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Schuol,)-285(J.,)-289(and)-285(K.)-291(C.)-286(Abbaspour)-284(\(2006\),)-279(Calibration)-289(and)-285(uncertaint)9(y)-290(issues)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(of)-266(a)-267(hydrologi)13(cal)-272(model)-262(\(SW)111(A)106(T\))-269(applied)-259(to)-269(W)76(est)-267(Africa,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 22.7478 0 Td [(Adv)75(.)-262(Geosci.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.9721 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5193 0 Td (9)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.4979 0 Td (\004)Tj -0.0001 Tc -28.7371 -1.1239 Td [(\006\027\005)-122(\b)-126(\006\022\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Seib)-12(er)-9(t,)-440(J.,)-445(an)-9(d)-439(J.)-439(J.)-446(McDon)-12(nel)-10(l)-434(\(2)-10(002)-8(\),)-438(On)-447(the)-443(dia)-10(log)-444(be)-9(tween)-448(expe)-11(ri-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(me)-17(n)-12(ta)-19(li)-15(st)-462(a)-11(nd)-458(mo)-18(de)-16(le)-19(r)-446(i)-15(n)-446(c)-11(a)-11(tc)-19(hm)-11(e)-11(n)-12(t)-448(hy)-17(dr)-17(ol)-20(og)-10(y)-12(:)-448(U)-15(se)-458(of)-459(so)-18(ft)-461(da)-16(ta)-460(f)-12(or)]TJ T* [(mult)-11(icrite)-14(ria)-678(model)-675(calib)-14(rat)-10(ion,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 13.8564 0 Td [(W)82(ate)-10(r)-668(R)-8(esour)101(.)-675(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.3366 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9176 0 Td (38)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.003 0 Td [(\001\006\006\003\004)-682(\006\t\022\006\004)]TJ -24.1135 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\t\016\016\006&'\016\016)12(\016\026\005\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Skaggs,)-270(T)78(.)-276(H.,)-269(and)-270(D.)-270(A.)-277(Barry)-271(\(1996\),)-265(Assessing)-268(uncertainty)-267(in)-276(subsurfac)10(e)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(solute)-398(transport:)-393(Effic)13(ient)-401(first-order)-396(reliability)-403(methods)11(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.3382 0 Td [(Envir)33(on.)-393(Soft-)]TJ -23.3382 -1.1239 Td [(war)36(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.9561 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0803 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (11)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.9176 0 Td [(\001\006)-127(\b)-126(\027\003\004)-327(\006\005\026)-122(\b)-126(\006\024\022\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\t\007\007\023\026\024)13(\027\024\001\026\007\003\016\016\016\t\002\023)14(\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.4528 -1.1239 Td [(Skahill,)-373(B.)-372(E.,)-376(J.)-375(S.)-372(Baggett,)-369(S.)-372(Frankenstein)9(,)-376(and)-377(C.)-372(W)83(.)-376(Downer)-369(\(2009\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(More)-389(eff)14(icient)-391(PEST)-327(compatible)-383(model)-390(independe)12(nt)-390(model)-390(calibration,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.02 Tc T* [(Envir)35(on.)-690(Mode)-5(l.)-683(Softw)74(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 10.3496 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0193 Tc 0.9603 0 Td (24)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0013 Tw [(\001\022)-7(\003\004)-692(\002\006\005)-121(\b)-128(\002\t\026\004)-692(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020\021\017\032)-6(\036)2(\037 \013!"\017)]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0 Tw -11.3099 -1.1239 Td (\t\016\016\024\017\016\026\017\016\006\006\017)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Sobol\222,)-307(I.)-310(M.)-316(\(2001\),)-307(Global)-307(sensitivity)-304(indices)-310(for)-314(nonlinear)-305(mathematic)9(al)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(models)-218(and)-221(their)-221(Monte)-218(Carlo)-217(estimates,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 16.1113 0 Td [(Math.)-219(Comput.)-210(Simul.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 8.678 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5406 0 Td (55)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006)-120(\b)-126(\027\003\004)]TJ -26.3257 -1.1239 Td [(\t\005\006)-122(\b)-126(\t\024\016\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\030\016\027\005\024\023\022\005)13(\002\022\001\016\016\003\016\016\t\005)13(\016\023\007\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 30.5011 85.4999 Td [(So)405(\250)-84(derstro)409(\250)-84(m,)-396(T)78(.,)-396(and)-391(P)104(.)-390(Stoica)-394(\(1989\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 15.6773 0 Td [(System)-390(Identificatio)7(n)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 8.4433 0 Td [(,)-397(Prentice-Hall)]TJ -23.1248 -1.1239 Td [(Int.,)-336(New)-325(Y)92(ork.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(Solomatine,)-267(D.)-263(P)104(.,)-268(Y)128(.)-269(B.)-272(Dibike,)-264(and)-263(N.)-270(Kukuric)-260(\(1999\),)-265(Automatic)-260(calibra-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(tion)-402(of)-409(groundwa)14(ter)-408(models)-396(using)-399(global)-404(optimiza)11(tion)-402(techniques,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 27.5349 0 Td (Hy-)Tj -27.5349 -1.1239 Td [(dr)31(ol.)-332(Sci.)-329(J.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.6804 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (44)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\007\003\004)-328(\024\005\026)-122(\b)-126(\024\026\022\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -7.2554 -1.1239 Td [(So)-8(nich-Mulli)-16(n,)-438(C.)-436(\(2001\))-10(,)-433(Har)-10(monizin)-11(g)-432(the)-443(incorp)-11(oration)-445(of)-437(uncer)-9(tainty)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(an)-9(d)-432(varia)-12(bility)-445(into)-438(ris)-12(k)-432(ass)-10(essment:)-445(An)-440(internati)-18(onal)-441(approach,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 26.8165 0 Td (Hum.)Tj -26.8165 -1.1239 Td [(Ecol.)-329(Risk)-332(Assess.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.2483 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.5762 0 Td (7)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.4979 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\005)-126(\b)-119(\006\027\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\024\016)12(\020\t\016\016\006\024\016\026\006\016\026\022)13(\006\024\005\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -9.3182 -1.1239 Td [(Spear)35(,)-269(R.)-265(C.,)-271(and)-263(G.)-263(M.)-266(Hornber)19(ger)-271(\(1980\),)-258(Eutrophicatio)9(n)-268(in)-269(Peel)-260(Inlet,)-270(II:)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Identification)-273(of)-274(critical)-275(uncertaint)9(ies)-274(via)-273(generalized)-269(sensitivity)-268(analysis,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf T* [(W)82(ater)-329(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 4.339 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5762 0 Td (14)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.0029 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-328(\022\027)-124(\b)-119(\022\026\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\016\016\022\027\023\006\027\002\022\001)13(\024\016\003\026\016\016\022\016\023\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -6.914 -1.1239 Td [(Suter)32(,)-355(G.)-355(W)90(.,)-354(III)-357(\(Ed.\))-350(\(2006\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 12.5902 0 Td [(Ecologica)13(l)-356(Risk)-353(Assessmen)10(t)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 11.1747 0 Td [(,)-355(2nd)-350(ed.,)-356(CRC)]TJ -22.7691 -1.1239 Td [(Press,)-330(Boca)-329(Raton,)-329(Fla.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(T)56(olso)-10(n,)-445(B.)-436(A.,)-447(an)-9(d)-439(C.)-436(A.)-448(Shoema)-13(ker)-441(\(2)-10(007\),)-446(Dyn)-11(amica)-11(lly)-447(dimen)-13(sion)-10(ed)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(search)-342(algorith)10(m)-340(for)-343(computation)10(ally)-337(effi)13(cient)-341(watershed)-334(model)-333(calibra-)]TJ 0 -1.1239 TD (tion,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 2.1197 0 Td [(W)82(ater)-329(Resour)108(.)-333(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.6182 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (43)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\004)-335(&\016\006\022\006\027\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026)12(\020\t\016\016\002&'\016\016)12(\022\005\t\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -12.3128 -1.131 Td [(T)63(onkin,)-276(M.)-274(J.,)-267(and)-277(J.)-276(Doherty)-267(\(2005\),)-272(A)-271(hybrid)-275(regulariz)9(ed)-279(inversio)11(n)-275(meth-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(odology)-337(for)-350(highly)-334(parameterized)-336(environmental)-341(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.388 0 Td [(W)89(ater)-343(Resour)108(.)]TJ -23.388 -1.1239 Td (Res.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.6787 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5762 0 Td (41)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.0029 0 Td [(\004)-328(&\006\016\022\006\t\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026\020)11(\t\016\016\002&'\016\016\027\026\026)13(\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.2537 -1.1239 Td [(T)28(rucano,)-433(T)70(.)-433(G.,)-440(L.)-434(P)104(.)-433(Swiler)29(,)-433(T)70(.)-433(Igusa,)-437(W)83(.)-433(L.)-434(Oberkampf,)-437(and)-434(M.)-437(Pilch)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(\(2)-10(006)-8(\),)-445(Cal)-14(ibr)-11(ati)-12(on,)-450(val)-10(ida)-10(tio)-13(n,)-445(and)-448(sen)-8(sit)-14(ivi)-13(ty)-439(an)-9(aly)-10(sis)-13(:)-441(Wha)-11(t\222)44(s)-440(wha)-10(t,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0264 Tc 0 -1.1239 TD [(R)-10(e)1(l)-9(i)-2(ab)-7(.)-698(E)-10(ng.)-705(Sy)-6(s)-8(t)-2(.)-698(S)-7(af)-9(.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0264 Tc 11.7295 0 Td (91)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0272 Tc 1.0599 0 Td [(\001\006\016)-127(\b)-127(\006)-6(\006\003\004)-706(\006)1(\027)-6(\027)1(\006)-127(\b)-127(\006)-6(\027\002)-6(\005\004)-706(\n\013\f)-9(\r)-2(\006\016)-6(\017\006)-6(\016\006)-6(\007\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -12.7894 -1.131 Td [(\021\017%\032 \017\t\016\016\002\017\006\006)9(\017\016\027\006\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(T)63(sai,)-365(C.)-365(W)90(.,)-368(and)-356(S.)-365(Franceschin)10(i)-363(\(2005\),)-357(Evaluation)-358(of)-359(probabilistic)-362(point)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(estimate)-352(methods)-352(in)-354(uncertaint)9(y)-354(analysis)-352(for)-357(environme)10(ntal)-351(engineering)]TJ 0.0284 Tc T* [(ap)9(plication)9(s)1(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0264 Tc 6.0675 0 Td [(J.)-691(Envir)27(o)1(n.)-691(En)7(g.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 7.7035 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0264 Tc 0.9674 0 Td (131)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.026 Tc [(\001\027\003\004)-693(\027\024\005)-128(\b)-121(\027\026\002\004)-693(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\007\006\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -14.7384 -1.1239 Td [(\0012\0308-\003\016\005\027\027\023\026\027)10(\005\t\001\t\016\016\002\003\006\027)13(\006\r\027\001\027\024\005\003\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(U.S)-10(.)-440(Envir)-9(onment)-11(al)-438(Prot)-14(ection)-446(Agenc)-12(y)-439(\(USEP)80(A\))-440(\(1)-10(992\),)-446(Guideli)-16(nes)-442(for)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(exposure)-460(assessment,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 9.1404 0 Td [(Rep.)-464(EP)127(A/600/Z-9)13(2/001)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf [(,)-461(Off.)-458(of)-466(Res.)-460(and)-462(Dev)61(.,)]TJ -9.1404 -1.131 Td [(W)69(ashingto)11(n,)-331(D.)-334(C.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(U.S.)-265(Environmenta)11(l)-271(Protection)-253(Agency)-266(\(USEP)94(A\))-269(\(2008\),)-258(Integrated)-259(model-)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(ing)-380(for)-371(integrated)-375(environme)10(ntal)-373(decision)-372(making,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 20.8273 0 Td [(Rep.)-372(EP)127(A)-378(100/R)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.5939 0 Td (-)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.3201 0 Td (08/)Tj -27.7412 -1.1239 Td (010)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 1.5009 0 Td [(,)-333(W)76(ashingto)11(n,)-331(D.)-334(C.)]TJ -2.4967 -1.1239 Td [(van)-391(Asselt,)-387(M.,)-386(and)-391(J.)-389(Rotmans)-385(\(2002\),)-379(Uncertainty)-390(in)-390(integrated)-382(assess-)]TJ 0.0126 Tc 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(m)-7(e)2(nt)-685(modelling,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0134 Tc 7.796 0 Td [(Clim)14(.)-690(C)-3(hange)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.1031 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0121 Tc 0.946 0 Td (54)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.0119 Tc [(\001\006)-128(\b)-128(\t\003\004)-685(\005\002)-128(\b)-128(\006\016\002\004)-685(\n\013\f\r\006\016)-7(\017)-3(\006\016\t\027\020)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -14.8451 -1.131 Td [(2\r\006\016\006\002\005\024\027\024\016)12(\027\022\022\002\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(V)99(an)-393(Bers,)-394(C.,)-392(D.)-398(Petry)68(,)-397(and)-398(C.)-393(Pahl-W)73(ostl)-396(\(Eds.\))-392(\(2007\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.957 0 Td [(Global)-394(Assess-)]TJ -22.9612 -1.1239 Td [(ments:)-505(Bridging)-498(Scales)-502(and)-499(Linking)-500(to)-503(Policy)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 19.4402 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.754 0 Td [(GWSP)-500(Issues)-503(Global)]TJ -20.1942 -1.1239 Td [(W)82(ater)-350(Syst.)-356(Res.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 6.5512 0 Td [(,)-355(vol.)-351(2,)-353(pp.)-351(102)-122(\226)-119(106,)-349(Global)-350(W)69(ater)-348(Syst.)-355(Proj.,)-346(Bonn,)]TJ -6.5512 -1.1239 Td [(Germany)63(.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(van)-242(der)-242(Merwe,)-238(R.,)-243(T)70(.)-241(K.)-241(Leen,)-241(Z.)-242(Lu,)-240(S.)-244(Frolov)69(,)-241(and)-242(A.)-241(M.)-245(Baptista)-237(\(2007\),)]TJ 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(Fast)-320(neural)-323(network)-310(surrogates)-317(for)-322(very)-318(high)-314(dimensional)-312(physics-based)]TJ T* [(models)-368(in)-361(computation)10(al)-367(oceanograph)12(y)59(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 16.4882 0 Td [(Neural)-365(Networks)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 6.8642 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.6117 0 Td (20)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\022\003\004)-364(\022\007\t)-122(\b)]TJ -24.96 -1.1239 Td [(\022\005\024\004)-336(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017)11(\006\016\006\007\020\021\017\036\0321\036\032)10("\017\t\016\016\005\017\016\022\017\016\t\027\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(van)-384(der)-391(Slujis,)-384(J.)-382(P)104(.)-390(\(2007\),)-379(Uncertainty)-383(and)-384(precaution)-380(in)-382(environmental)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(m)-12(a)-11(n)-12(a)-11(ge)-16(m)-12(e)-11(nt)-20(:)-456(in)-20(si)-21(g)-12(ht)-20(s)-454(f)-12(r)-12(om)-459(t)-15(he)-464(UP)-18(E)-8(M)-452(c)-11(o)-12(n)-12(f)-12(er)-16(e)-11(n)-12(c)-11(e)-11(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 21.9582 0 Td [(E)-8(n)-12(vi)-19(r)22(o)-12(n.)-466(Mo)-15(d)-12(e)-11(ll)-22(.)]TJ -21.9582 -1.1239 Td [(Softwar)32(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.4925 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (22)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\002\003\004)-335(\002\026\016)-115(\b)-126(\002\026\024\004)-329(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007)12(\020\021\017\032\036\037 \013!"\017\t\016\016\002)10(\017\006\t\017\016\t\016\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -6.0675 -1.1239 Td [(van)-384(der)-391(Sluijs,)-384(J.)-382(P)104(.,)-382(et)-389(al.)-388(\(2003\),)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 14.4112 0 Td [(RIVM/MNP)-380(Guidance)-378(for)-389(Uncertainty)]TJ -13.4154 -1.131 Td [(Assessment)-431(and)-435(Communic)12(ation:)-434(Detailed)-433(Guidance)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 21.6524 0 Td [(,)-433(pp.)-436(2003)-120(\226)-126(2163,)]TJ -21.6524 -1.1239 Td [(Utrecht)-333(Univ)67(.,)-332(Utrecht,)-332(Netherlands)9(.)]TJ -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(van)-235(Griensven,)-227(A.,)-226(and)-235(T)78(.)-234(Meixner)-227(\(2006\),)-229(Methods)-222(to)-233(quantify)-230(and)-228(identify)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(the)-244(sources)-243(of)-245(uncertaint)9(y)-247(for)-243(river)-241(basin)-241(water)-242(quality)-241(models,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 24.9813 0 Td [(W)82(ater)-243(Sci.)]TJ -24.9813 -1.1239 Td [(T)82(echnol.)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 3.3574 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5833 0 Td (53)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.9958 0 Td [(\001\006\003\004)-335(\002\006)-117(\b)-126(\002\026\004)-331(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\t\006\007\007)12(\020; "\017\t\016\016\007\017\016\016\005)11(\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -5.9324 -1.1239 Td [(V)99(aris,)-236(O.)-241(\(1997\),)-229(Bayesian)-238(decision)-230(analysis)-238(for)-243(environ)13(mental)-240(and)-235(resource)]TJ 0.0407 Tc 0.9958 -1.131 Td [(m)-7(a)-6(na)-6(ge)-6(me)-6(n)-7(t)-2(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0409 Tc 6.5085 0 Td [(E)-9(nv)-6(i)-2(r)28(o)-7(n.)-719(Mo)-7(de)-6(ll)-9(.)-712(S)-7(oft)-9(w)-4(ar)28(e)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 12.4124 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf 0.0477 Tc 1.003 0 Td (12)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 0.1686 Tc 1.0883 0 Td [(\001)125(\t\b\027)121(\003)125(\004)-586(\006)121(\005)128(\005\b\006)121(\024)128(\002)121(\004)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -21.0122 -1.1239 Td [(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\006\007\020)11(\030\006\027\007\022\023\024\006\002\t\001\026\005)14(\003\016\016\016\016\024\023\031\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(V)99(ermeulen,)-424(P)104(.)-426(T)70(.)-426(M.,)-429(A.)-433(W)90(.)-433(Heemink,)-422(and)-427(J.)-432(R.)-429(V)106(alstar)-433(\(2005\),)-428(Inverse)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(mo)-11(de)-9(lin)-13(g)-439(of)-444(gr)-10(oun)-8(dwa)-10(te)-12(r)-439(fl)-13(ow)-447(usi)-12(ng)-444(mod)-9(el)-445(re)-9(duct)-15(ion)-11(,)]TJ /T1_1 1 Tf 23.2386 0 Td [(W)75(ate)-10(r)-440(R)-8(eso)-8(ur)95(.)]TJ -23.2386 -1.1239 Td (Res.)Tj /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.6787 0 Td (,)Tj /T1_1 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc 0.5762 0 Td (41)Tj /T1_2 1 Tf 1.0029 0 Td [(\004)-328(&\016\007\016\016\027\004)-325(\n\013\f\r\006\016\017\006\016\t\026\020)11(\t\016\016\022&'\016\016\027\007\026)13(\024\017)]TJ /T1_0 1 Tf -4.2537 -1.1239 Td [(V)99(ermeulen,)-260(P)104(.)-262(T)70(.)-269(M.,)-258(C.)-272(B.)-265(M.)-266(te)-268(Stroet,)-259(and)-270(A.)-263(W)83(.)-269(Heemink)-259(\(2006\),)-258(Model)]TJ 0.9958 -1.1239 Td [(inversion)-385(of)-387(transient)-387(nonlinear)-376(groundwater)-380(flow)-388(models)-382(using)-385(model)]TJ 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